Ontario 2014 (June 12th)

[RogueBeaver]

Abacus LV: OLP 36, PC 33, NDP 24. Looks like my pessimism was justified.

[DC Al Fine]

Abacus LV: OLP 36, PC 33, NDP 24. Looks like my pessimism was justified.

I assume Hudak is gone if he doesn't make a decent gain. Any contenders for a new leader in 2015-2016?

[toaster]

Abacus LV: OLP 36, PC 33, NDP 24. Looks like my pessimism was justified.

I assume Hudak is gone if he doesn't make a decent gain. Any contenders for a new leader in 2015-2016?

I think Christine Elliott is the best choice for them. 

[Krago]

Eddie Francis, Mayor of Windsor

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eddie_Francis

[Krago]

Lots of Mayors have led provincial parties out west (Klein, Decore, Harcourt), but I can't remember the last time a sitting Mayor ran for a Ontario provincial party leadership.  The only former Mayor who leaps to mind is Michael Prue.

[Citizen Hats]

Lots of Mayors have led provincial parties out west (Klein, Decore, Harcourt), but I can't remember the last time a sitting Mayor ran for a Ontario provincial party leadership.  The only former Mayor who leaps to mind is Michael Prue.

BC with the exception of Christy Clark, every BC Premier has been a former mayor since Bill Bennett stepped down, and Christy Clark ran for mayor of Vancouver but lost the NPA nomination to Sam Sullivan in odd happenstance. 

I hear the Mayor of Toronto's conservative, though...

[Hatman 🍁]

Eddie Francis eh? I wonder if he could even win one of the Windsor ridings. When was the last time a Windosr riding went Tory? the 60s?

[DC Al Fine]

Eddie Francis eh? I wonder if he could even win one of the Windsor ridings. When was the last time a Windosr riding went Tory? the 60s?

Federally it was during the Diefenbaker landslide.

[MaxQue]

Eddie Francis eh? I wonder if he could even win one of the Windsor ridings. When was the last time a Windosr riding went Tory? the 60s?

Provincially, they won a by-election in 1964 in Windsor-Sandwich.

[adma]

BC with the exception of Christy Clark, every BC Premier has been a former mayor since Bill Bennett stepped down, and Christy Clark ran for mayor of Vancouver but lost the NPA nomination to Sam Sullivan in odd happenstance. 

Huh?  Harcourt + Campbell, but I don't know of any of the rest having been a former mayor...

[DC Al Fine]

BC with the exception of Christy Clark, every BC Premier has been a former mayor since Bill Bennett stepped down, and Christy Clark ran for mayor of Vancouver but lost the NPA nomination to Sam Sullivan in odd happenstance. 

Huh?  Harcourt + Campbell, but I don't know of any of the rest having been a former mayor...

Bill Vander Zalm was mayor of Surrey... That still leaves Johnson, Clark & Dosanjh.

[Citizen Hats]

Wow, how did I forget about Glen Clark and Ujjal Dossanj? 

[Hatman 🍁]

Don't forget Ralph Klein who was mayor of Calgary.

And in a strange example, former Winnipeg mayor Glen Murray ran for the Ontario Liberal leadership last year.

[Hatman 🍁]

My week 4 Projection is up: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/05/2014-ontario-election-projection-week-4.html

My numbers are 50-34-23, but if you factor in "my gut instinct", then we're really looking at 47-38-22.

[Krago]

Don't forget Ralph Klein who was mayor of Calgary.

And in a strange example, former Winnipeg mayor Glen Murray ran for the Ontario Liberal leadership last year.

True, but he dropped out before the delegate selection meetings.

David Crombie ran for the federal PC leadership in 1983, finishing a poor 5th with just 4% support.

Alan Tonks went from being Chair of Metro Toronto to a nobody in Ottawa.   Years ago Frank magazine [Canada's version of Private Eye] phoned him a few days after the election when there was much speculation about who might be in cabinet.  They left a message to call back Eddie Goldenberg (Chretien's right-hand man) right away and left a phone number belonging to someone at Frank.  Apparently Tonks called back about 15 times in one day desperately trying to return the call and leaving endless messages about how he could be reached.

[Krago]

By the way, has anyone seen this:  Forum Most Accurate Firm in Predicting Provincial Elections

[RogueBeaver]

Coalition makes a brief appearance.

[adma]

Don't forget Ralph Klein who was mayor of Calgary.

And in a strange example, former Winnipeg mayor Glen Murray ran for the Ontario Liberal leadership last year.

True, but he dropped out before the delegate selection meetings.

David Crombie ran for the federal PC leadership in 1983, finishing a poor 5th with just 4% support.

Alan Tonks went from being Chair of Metro Toronto to a nobody in Ottawa.   Years ago Frank magazine [Canada's version of Private Eye] phoned him a few days after the election when there was much speculation about who might be in cabinet.  They left a message to call back Eddie Goldenberg (Chretien's right-hand man) right away and left a phone number belonging to someone at Frank.  Apparently Tonks called back about 15 times in one day desperately trying to return the call and leaving endless messages about how he could be reached.

Oh, and in 1996, MPP and former Kingston Mayor John Gerretsen ran for the Ontario Liberal leadershio (McGuinty won)

[Hatman 🍁]

Forum Research with a surprising poll:

Lib: 36 (-5)
PC: 36 (+2)
NDP: 20 (n/c)
Grn: 7 (+3)

[RogueBeaver]

Getting in line with Ipsos, who will release at 6 tonight as usual. From Bricker and Wright's Twitter feed I expect MOE changes. Hudak needs to score at the debate.

[lilTommy]

Campaign specific comment - I'm noticing the NDP is focusing very heavily in York West, Horwath has been in the riding by my count at least 3 times, probably done in conjunction with York South-Weston, Ferreira was late to the game but now i'm seeing a push there too. (Tom Rakocevic has been seen on the news each time). I know the NDP did well in 11 - 30% well, but Sergio is still running? perhaps there is something on the ground there?

[Hatman 🍁]

York West is demographically a good fit for the NDP, but they've never taken it seriously before. Perhaps it's worth the effort to campaign there, but it's always hard knocking off an incumbent in Toronto.

I feel York South-Weston is a hopeless endeavour. If the NDP couldn't win it last time, I don't see them doing it again. Kudos to Ferreira for trying again.

[Krago]

Forum Research with a surprising poll:

Lib: 36 (-5)
PC: 36 (+2)
NDP: 20 (n/c)
Grn: 7 (+3)

Did you see the headline in today's Toronto Star: "Liberal support plunges in new poll" ?

No, neither did I.

[Hatman 🍁]

It helps that I generally avoid the Star these days.

[RogueBeaver]

It helps that I generally avoid the Star these days.

John Wright suggested thumb-weighting on Twitter, FWIW.