Ontario 2014 (June 12th)

[Citizen Hats]

[lilTommy]

The unofficial poll-by-poll results were released today on the Elections Ontario website.

http://wemakevotingeasy.ca/en/general-election-results.aspx

Here's the first poll map:

Thank You!
Very telling... First in Trinity-Spadina the NDP did win some condo land polls, looks like half a dozen, now take out the Community housng polls they won, and probably 2-3 condo polls were won by the NDP, only really won over the Little Italy-Palmerston and Christie Pitts area. They lost the University lands (North Centre of the riding) and the Hipster land, which they needed to hold those areas to offset the North East corner closer to Yorkville and the overall condo land in the south who lean Liberal. Nothing pretty here for the NDP, but not a total loss, the University-chinatown-hipster area is winnable. The By-election will be telling to see what the NDP holds vs the provincial.
Beaches - well obvious this one, Prue held on to East York but not enough to offset the lose of Beaches which trended Liberal in 2011, he had held the Upper Beaches in 2011 but losing it now cost him the riding
Davenport - Schein was the reverse of Trinity lost the Wallace-Emerson/Junction area which he needed to hold since the liberals were already dominant North of St.Clair but held on in the marginally hipster Brockton and Dufferin Grove area... north of Dundas he won, which is more working class while south is the more hipster gentrificated area we know

Parkdale-High Park - it was all Parkdale for DiNovo, she lost any poll she had won in the High Park and Swansea area but opposite to Schein won in the Junction area.
Danforth - Tabuns was lucky he lost all of Riverdale, the wealthier area at any rate, and the west Danfroth, but held Leslieville and Riverside

AMAZING Krago ... when you get some free time, what does Brampton/Mississauga look like? the NDP seemed to have been polling well in Brampton

Great maps Krago and good assessment Tommy.

FWIW, I don't think the argument of "gentrification" really holds in explaining what happened in Toronto.

No your right, but that area in the southern tip of Davenport is part of the more gentrified, hipster, new yuppie part of West Queen West. Falls in line with what we've been saying with the waffling Progressives... could easily swap back to the NDP

[lilTommy]

I'm pretty sure Prue carried East York throughout the time he was MPP.

Yeah, I meant before Prue won in a byelection in 2001 - like in 1995 and 1999

Frances Lankin owned it; only in 2011 did the beaches really start to shift though; Prue winning the western beaches, upper beaches, but as you go east of Kew gardens, around Glen Stewart park it all went Liberal http://www.election-atlas.ca/ont/107/5.php?e=2011 economic trend? its a very upper middle class area now... more so then before I think

[King of Kensington]

Also, I get the sense that the Beaches attracts more mainstream, "conventional" professional types than the west end does. 

[DL]

Its interesting how London has become such an NDP city...it wasn't always that way - back in 1967, 1971, 1975, 1977, 1981, 1985 and 1987 - when the Ontario NDP won 21-29% of the vote and got as many as 38 seats in the 1975 election - they didn't even come close in any London seats.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Excellent stuff as usual, Krago.

[Hatman 🍁]

You can see how the White areas of Scarborough-Agincourt all went Liberal, but the Tories won their polls in the more Chinese areas. Very interesting.

It was confirmed that there were some clerical errors in counting the declined votes. But I suppose it makes sense that more socially conservative/communitarian ridings would be more likely to decline their ballots, being unhappy with all the parties platforms.

[King of Kensington]

No your right, but that area in the southern tip of Davenport is part of the more gentrified, hipster, new yuppie part of West Queen West. Falls in line with what we've been saying with the waffling Progressives... could easily swap back to the NDP

Interesting how the Bloor-Ossington area held up for the NDP.  Looking at census tract data, the "right by the Drake and the Gladstone" tract is not the highest-SES tract in the riding.  It's the Ossington to Dovercourt pocket between Bloor and College.  Though yes it's less self consciously "hip" there.

[MaxQue]

Declined ballots? In Ontario, you can show up to the voting station and just decline to vote? Wierd.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Wouldn't you normally expect spoilt ballots to be more frequent in working class and minority areas?

[Citizen Hats]

Declined ballots? In Ontario, you can show up to the voting station and just decline to vote? Wierd.

As a way officially registering your refusal to select a candidate, rather than not voting, turning in a blank ballot, or spoiling your ballot. This was brought up frequently this election in the press. You hand your ballot back to the officer, and it is recorded

Wouldn't you normally expect spoilt ballots to be more frequent in working class and minority areas?

These aren't spoilt, rather they are consciously refused ballots, though the spoilage map isn't that different

[Linus Van Pelt]

Wouldn't you normally expect spoilt ballots to be more frequent in working class and minority areas?

Declined ballots are different from spoiled ballots. A declined ballot is where you deliberately go to the polling station, take your ballot from the official, and then immediately hand it back unmarked rather than going into the booth.

[Krago]

Here are the results by polling division in an Excel file.  Enjoy.

And here is a link to the polling division shapefiles.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Wouldn't you normally expect spoilt ballots to be more frequent in working class and minority areas?

Declined ballots are different from spoiled ballots. A declined ballot is where you deliberately go to the polling station, take your ballot from the official, and then immediately hand it back unmarked rather than going into the booth.

That's... odd.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Wouldn't you normally expect spoilt ballots to be more frequent in working class and minority areas?

Declined ballots are different from spoiled ballots. A declined ballot is where you deliberately go to the polling station, take your ballot from the official, and then immediately hand it back unmarked rather than going into the booth.

That's... odd.

Yes, it is. It doesn't exist at the federal level, and I don't know the history of it.

[MaxQue]

Wouldn't you normally expect spoilt ballots to be more frequent in working class and minority areas?

Declined ballots are different from spoiled ballots. A declined ballot is where you deliberately go to the polling station, take your ballot from the official, and then immediately hand it back unmarked rather than going into the booth.

That's... odd.

Yes, it is. It doesn't exist at the federal level, and I don't know the history of it.

Doesn't exist in Quebec either.

[Hatman 🍁]

Wouldn't you normally expect spoilt ballots to be more frequent in working class and minority areas?

Declined ballots are different from spoiled ballots. A declined ballot is where you deliberately go to the polling station, take your ballot from the official, and then immediately hand it back unmarked rather than going into the booth.

That's... odd.

Yes, it is. It doesn't exist at the federal level, and I don't know the history of it.

And I wasn't even aware of its existence until this election. AFAIK spoiling your ballot is actually illegal.

[adma]

Is it just me, or were the PCs actually more efficient poll-winners in a lot of Toronto ridings in 2014 compared to 2011?

[Citizen Hats]

Is it just me, or were the PCs actually more efficient poll-winners in a lot of Toronto ridings in 2014 compared to 2011?

What does that mean?

[Hatman 🍁]

Is it just me, or were the PCs actually more efficient poll-winners in a lot of Toronto ridings in 2014 compared to 2011?

What does that mean?

I suppose that they won more polls than their vote share would suggest?

[Krago]

Here are the results by polling division in an Excel file.  Enjoy.

And here is a link to the polling division shapefiles.

New and improved!  I've fixed some of the declined vote oddities in the Excel file and added a couple of summary pages.

[King of Kensington]

I suppose that they won more polls than their vote share would suggest?

Is that an accomplishment?

[Citizen Hats]

Here are the results by polling division in an Excel file.  Enjoy.

And here is a link to the polling division shapefiles.

New and improved!  I've fixed some of the declined vote oddities in the Excel file and added a couple of summary pages.

All hail Krago!

I suppose that they won more polls than their vote share would suggest?

Is that an accomplishment?

It would seem to be the most meaningless factoid that one could derive

[Smid]

Krago, you are a star!

[Hatman 🍁]

Here are the results by polling division in an Excel file.  Enjoy.

And here is a link to the polling division shapefiles.

New and improved!  I've fixed some of the declined vote oddities in the Excel file and added a couple of summary pages.

All hail Krago!

I suppose that they won more polls than their vote share would suggest?

Is that an accomplishment?

It would seem to be the most meaningless factoid that one could derive

It's the little things that losing campaigns look for when the results are in. A diamond in the rough if you will. Like how I was pleased that we won a poll in Ottawa South. Probably the first time we've won a poll in the riding since 1990 or 1995.