The NY-26 Election. Have fun but keep your shirt on.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Apparently PPP will be releasing a poll today showing Hochul leading.

Says who ?

Kos himself.

http://twitter.com/#!/markos/status/67620847883534337

[Rowan]

Here it is:

Hochul(D): 35%
Corwin(R): 31%
Davis(I): 24%

http://www.dailykos.com/polling/2011/5/5/NY-26/31/78eWn

[Tender Branson]

The numbers make sense.

This is a McCain+6 district, he won there 52-46.

This sample is 49-43 McCain, so it's about the 2008 electorate.

[Brittain33]

Corwin is standing by the Ryan plan to privatize Medicare. She may still win, but it would have been easier if she took a note from Mark Critz's notebook...

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Impressive, but for Hochul to win, Davis is probably going to have to get closer to 30%. I doubt she'll be able to do much better than 35%.

If she does happen to win, it will be possible to give her a winnable district for 2012 by putting Slaughter's part of Erie County into the district. You can carve out two 54-44 Obama districts in western NY while giving Slaughter a 58-40 Obama district that shrinks back to Monroe County. Slaughter may not like that, though.

[Cincinnatus]

http://www.buffalonews.com/topics/chris-lee/article417452.ece

This happened to be on the front page when I retrieved the paper this morning.


And this is a drawn out story that's now on page A4 or so.

http://www.buffalonews.com/topics/chris-lee/article417450.ece

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

This is bringing back bad memories. Of Senate pages and resigning Congressman and lost House seats. These crooks will never learn.

[Nation]

For those of you who aren't sure about PPP numbers, as Tender Branson pointed out, they make sense. And Jack Davis is enough of a wildcard that he most likely is getting 20+% of the vote right now. We've seen what happens in a district with enough Democrats, and a Republican who gets torpedoed by a fringe right-wing candidate (NY-23) in a special election.

Could go either way, but I bet Hochul takes this one. I never thought I'd say that after the Dems' awful rollout of her, too.

[Progressive]

When is this election taking place again?

[HST1948]

When is this election taking place again?

May 24

[Brittain33]

Slaughter may not like that, though.

She'll be 83 at the next election...

[Nation]

Slaughter may not like that, though.

She'll be 83 at the next election...

Slaughter is running till she's 100. And yeah, she wouldn't like that, but the 26th is getting axed in its current form, there's no way around that.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Impressive, but for Hochul to win, Davis is probably going to have to get closer to 30%. I doubt she'll be able to do much better than 35%.

If she does happen to win, it will be possible to give her a winnable district for 2012 by putting Slaughter's part of Erie County into the district. You can carve out two 54-44 Obama districts in western NY while giving Slaughter a 58-40 Obama district that shrinks back to Monroe County. Slaughter may not like that, though.

Meh, she's one of those people that seriously just need to retire and probably will in a term or two anyway. It'll be amazing if she manages to survive the decade.

[HST1948]

Slaughter may not like that, though.

She'll be 83 at the next election...

She's not going anywhere.

[Brittain33]

Slaughter may not like that, though.

She'll be 83 at the next election...

She's not going anywhere.

Ok, but how much influence does she have in Albany?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

American Crossroads is putting $650k into ads for the next two weeks.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

DCCC counters with $250k.

[Marokai Backbeat]

American Crossroads is putting $650k into ads for the next two weeks.

DCCC counters with $250k.

Sounds about right.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

If we win this, does it count as payback for Scott Brown?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

If we win this, does it count as payback for Scott Brown?

No.

Charles Djou.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

If we win this, does it count as payback for Scott Brown?

No.

Charles Djou.

That comparison really can't be applied to NY-26 because Davis takes away votes nearly equally from Corwin and Hochul. There was a clear split field between Case and Hanabusa where both candidates split the Democratic vote nearly equally. Notice that Hochul has better favorable ratings than Corwin and that voters only barely prefer a Republican over a Democrat, I think Hochul would be leading Corwin even with Davis out of the trace.

If anything, if Davis voters were forced to pick between Corwin and Hochul, I'd expect them to chose Hochul by a decent margin.

[Skill and Chance]

If we win this, does it count as payback for Scott Brown?

No, that would require something far more drastic, like a Senator Matheson or Freudenthal.

[Mr.Phips]

If we win this, does it count as payback for Scott Brown?

No, that would require something far more drastic, like a Senator Matheson or Freudenthal.

Yep.  I have long said that a Republican winning a Senate seat in Masachussetts would be like a Democrat winning Orrin Hatch's seat. 

[Lief 🗽]

If we win this, does it count as payback for Scott Brown?

No, that would require something far more drastic, like a Senator Matheson or Freudenthal.

Yep.  I have long said that a Republican winning a Senate seat in Masachussetts would be like a Democrat winning Orrin Hatch's seat. 

Mass is only D+12, Utah is R+20. It's more comparable to a Dem winning in Alaska or Nebraska... which are things that have happened.

[Landslide Lyndon]

http://www.rollcall.com/news/bellavia_endorses_davis_as_attack_escalate_in_ny_special-205512-1.html

Wealthy third-party candidate Jack Davis unveiled the endorsement of tea party darling David Bellavia on Wednesday, a move intended to counter charges by conservative groups that Davis is largely a tea party impostor in western New York’s looming special election.

“Jack Davis is honored to have the support of David Bellavia, a man of integrity and honor. And it will certainly add momentum to Jack Davis’ campaign, which is picking up more support every day,” Davis spokesman Curtis Ellis told Roll Call on Wednesday. “He’s not just endorsing Jack, he’s actively campaigning for Jack.”

The endorsement comes 13 days before Election Day. It will be formally announced during a 6 p.m. event with veterans, a setting aimed at tempering a conflict between the two men dating back to a 2006 campaign ad, in which Bellavia accused Davis of playing politics with troops.

“Veterans in Western New York and voters of all stripes have one clear choice for Congress, and that is Jack Davis, a true independent who will work for the people as he caucuses with the Republicans in the House of Representatives,” Bellavia said in a statement.

An Iraq war veteran and author, Bellavia was the sentimental favorite of western New York tea party groups in the days and weeks after Jane Corwin claimed the GOP nomination earlier in the spring. With the help of tea party activists, Bellavia collected thousands of signatures to try to qualify for the May 24 ballot, but he ultimately backed off the effort after a paperwork blunder.