German Elections & Politics

[Oryxslayer]

Forsa poll:

Poll in Question:

Data  (change since last Forza poll) [change since election rounded]

CDU/CSU: 34 (+1) [+1]
SPD: 18 (-2) [-2.5]
AfD: 12 (+1) [-.5]
Greens: 12 (=) [+3]
Linke: 10 (+1) [+1]
FDP: 8 (-1) [-3]

^ Previous Forza poll. Change in this new poll is -1 for SPD, +1 for AfD and Linke.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

All post election polls here.

Mildly interesting that small house-biases are starting to creep back in after a lengthy period of crowding.

[Soonerdem]

Forsa poll:

Christ. At this rate they’ll be in 4th place by the summer. It’s hard to see how the SPD, at least in its current form, can come back from this.

[King of Kensington]

So when will the SPD sink below the AfD?

[Beezer]

Given past trends, I don't see how the SPD will be able to retain its share of the vote under a Merkel government. So if the SPD drops another 3-4 points from its 20.5 showing in 2017 while the AfD is able to consolidate its vote among protest and blue-collar voters, a tie between the two appears at the very least possible.

[Beezer]

Electoral preferences sorted by gender and age:



https://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/dam/jcr/e0d2b01f-32ff-40f0-ba9f-50b5f761bb22/btw17_heft4.pdf (p. 91)

Not too many surprises I suppose. As is the case in other countries the AfD is a bit of a Männerpartei and also quite popular among 35-60 year olds. Female pensioners really love Merkel.

[Zinneke]

http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/inquality-and-wealth-distribution-in-germany-a-1190050.html

Its staggering that the SPD can't seem to use this as an argument. I do wonder if it has to do with income inequality between West and East and the subsequent difficulties the SPD have there in getting a core peripheral vote vs Die Linke.

[EPG]

http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/inquality-and-wealth-distribution-in-germany-a-1190050.html

Its staggering that the SPD can't seem to use this as an argument. I do wonder if it has to do with income inequality between West and East and the subsequent difficulties the SPD have there in getting a core peripheral vote vs Die Linke.

Most wealth in lower deciles in Europe is housing. Fewer Germans want or need to own houses, so wealth at lower income deciles is lower. Thus, it may not be a salient topic. You can just rely on the welfare state.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

If you want to vote against the Groko, you can join the SPD until February 6, 6 o'clock a.m.
This deadline was set by the party executive on Monday.

Beforehand, Kevin Kühnert, the chairman of the Jusos (the youth organization of the SPD), had come under fire after appealing to the public to join the SPD for a ten-spot in order to vote "no" and then to leave the party after two months.

[Tender Branson]

If you want to vote against the Groko, you can join the SPD until February 6, 6 o'clock a.m.
This deadline was set by the party executive on Monday.

Beforehand, Kevin Kühnert, the chairman of the Jusos (the youth organization of the SPD), had come under fire after appealing to the public to join the SPD for a ten-spot in order to vote "no" and then to leave the party after two months.

2x stupid.

First, that the SPD even allows late & new members to vote (there should be a cutoff date of Dec. 31st or something) and second also Kühnert's call to join just to vote against and then quit again.

I actually like the SPD to go into opposition and re-group, but these measures are not helpful for a party that is already in bad shape.

[Tender Branson]

Clickable new map of the 2017 federal election results by town (there are 11.000):

https://interaktiv.morgenpost.de/gemeindekarte-bundestagswahl-2017

I think this is the first map of its kind.

White = no inhabitants.

Also do not forget the +/- zoom sign at the bottom right, to show results for small towns.

[Beezer]

I still have no clue why the SPD has chosen the topic of family reunification as their hill to die on during these negotiations. Do they honestly think this is how they can galvanize or regain blue collar voters?

[Tender Branson]

With these numbers, the SPD is probably at 3-5% soon in rural Bavaria or BW ...

[Oryxslayer]

Clickable new map of the 2017 federal election results by town (there are 11.000):

https://interaktiv.morgenpost.de/gemeindekarte-bundestagswahl-2017

I think this is the first map of its kind.

White = no inhabitants.

Also do not forget the +/- zoom sign at the bottom right, to show results for small towns.

I don't like how they don't carve up the cities, leaving areas like Koln, Berlin, Munich, and Dresden as big Black blobs rather than detailed maps. But yes, it is certainly nice to see a map like this.

[/quote]

I still have no clue why the SPD has chosen the topic of family reunification as their hill to die on during these negotiations. Do they honestly think this is how they can galvanize or regain blue collar voters?

It appears the SPD are trying to push socially left ideas that in many other counties would appeal to the youth...except that group is 1 - more loyal to Greens/Linke than the SPD, and 2 - fundamentally opposed to Grand Coalition V2.0 and they will always be against it, no matter how far left the agreement moves.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Clickable new map of the 2017 federal election results by town (there are 11.000):

https://interaktiv.morgenpost.de/gemeindekarte-bundestagswahl-2017

I think this is the first map of its kind.

White = no inhabitants.

Also do not forget the +/- zoom sign at the bottom right, to show results for small towns.

What the  is wrong with the people living in Norderfriedrichskoog (39.3% FDP) and Fredeburg (51.8% Greens). I live in Schleswig-Holstein, but I have no clue why it is such a strong Greens and FDP stronghold.

[Tender Branson]

Question for German posters:

Why are these uninhabitated areas shown in white ?

Are these areas not part of a community, like in the US where unincorporated areas are simply shown as uninhabitated ?

Here in Austria, uninhabitated areas are still part of a town and not shown seperately on a map.

[parochial boy]

Clickable new map of the 2017 federal election results by town (there are 11.000):

https://interaktiv.morgenpost.de/gemeindekarte-bundestagswahl-2017

I think this is the first map of its kind.

White = no inhabitants.

Also do not forget the +/- zoom sign at the bottom right, to show results for small towns.

What the  is wrong with the people living in Norderfriedrichskoog (39.3% FDP) and Fredeburg (51.8% Greens). I live in Schleswig-Holstein, but I have no clue why it is such a strong Greens and FDP stronghold.

For the FDP - protestants preferring not to vote for the traditionally catholic CDU?

The Greeny place is tiny, so it's probably statistics noise - but the Greens seem to do quite well between Lübeck and Hamburg, which is presumably quite wealthy commuter land etc, etc...

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Question for German posters:

Why are these uninhabitated areas shown in white ?

Are these areas not part of a community, like in the US where unincorporated areas are simply shown as uninhabitated ?

Here in Austria, uninhabitated areas are still part of a town and not shown seperately on a map.

One example: The white spot east of Munich. Those are three forests: Anzinger, Egelhartinger and Ebesberger forests.
On Wikipedia maps, they are colored in dark gray:



Wikipedia says they are unincorporated areas and they belong to the Free State of Bavaria:

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anzinger_Forst
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eglhartinger_Forst
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebersberger_Forst

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The white spots underneath Munich are the Perlacher Forst, the Grünwalder Forst and the Forstenrieder Park. They are all unincorporated areas according to Wikipedia, too.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The white spot in southeastern Bavaria, which is literally surrounding an isle is the lake Chiemsee, and the isle within is a community called Chiemsee.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The white stripe in Southern Lower Saxony is the unincorporated census area Harz within Goslar County.



That map reminds me a bit of Alaska.

PS: I didn't know that Braunlage is divided into three unconnected parts plus dozen slivers. This is the most "Americanized" German county-community map I've ever seen.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The big white stripe in Northern Hesse is the unincorporated estate district Reinhardswald within Kassel County:



The smaller white spot in northern Hesse is the unincorporated estate district Kaufunger Wald within Werra-Meißner County:

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Question for German posters:

Why are these uninhabitated areas shown in white ?

Are these areas not part of a community, like in the US where unincorporated areas are simply shown as uninhabitated ?

Here in Austria, uninhabitated areas are still part of a town and not shown seperately on a map.

Here is a full list of all unincorporated ares in Germany:

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gemeindefreies_Gebiet

There are 225 unincorporated land areas and 4 unincorporated water areas (all of which lie in Bavaria) in Germany. Only two are inhabited: Osterheide (Heidekreis County) and Lohheide (Celle County), both of which lie in Lower Saxony; that's why they aren't shown as white blobs on the map.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oooh this is good.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Question for German posters:

Why are these uninhabitated areas shown in white ?

Are these areas not part of a community, like in the US where unincorporated areas are simply shown as uninhabitated ?

Here in Austria, uninhabitated areas are still part of a town and not shown seperately on a map.

I have found some white spots in Schleswig-Hoistein that are not unincorporated areas:
Wiedenborstel and Auufer (both Steinburg County) and Tackesdorf (Rendsburg-Eckernförde County).
But I don't know why there aren't any results delivered for these villages.

The two big white blobs in that Land are Sachsenwald (the largest contiguous woodlands within SH) and the forestry estate district Buchholz (comprising the Segeberg state forest), both of which are unincorporated areas.