Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[TheSaint250]

What's happening in Calabria?

[Sestak]

Who do you think they're more likely to pick, jaichind?

[Former President tack50]

Looks like it will be M5S choice of PD or LN to form the majority.

Since M5S hates coalitions I guess they could just do a minority government? The numbers are there, especially if they have the choice between PD and LN.

[Helsinkian]

What's the likelihood of M5S splintering to at least two parties while in government? I'd say around 60%.

[jaichind]

Who do you think they're more likely to pick, jaichind?

I do not know.  I do not know very much about Italian politics other than to report the numbers and do the math.  I think they do not know either since they did not expect to do this well.

[jaichind]

Lower House  LA7 By Area Projection

Coalition                     North   Center   South   Total
Center-Right              43.0%   32.7%   30.5%   37.1%
Five Star Movement   24.4%   28.7%   47.3%   32.3%
Center-Left               25.4%   29.7%   15.6%   22.9%
Free and Equal             3.3%   3.7%   2.9%   3.2%
Others                         3.9%   5.2%   3.7%   4.5%

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Praying for a M5S-PD government.

[Oryxslayer]

It was thought that Five Star leader Luigi Di Maio may speak tonight -- it now seems he won't. A spokesperson for the party says Di Maio will address the press tomorrow in the early afternoon, without offering further details.   I guess they have no clue what to do now that a government cannot be formed without them.

Eh, the Right alliance can still probably poach their way to a majority if they get the 37%+ suggested right now. But, if Lega has to lead the alliance, I doubt Berlusconi is willing to do that. Hell, while the Lower House might have to work with MS5, the Senate can easily see this Right alliance triumph through MP flips.

We still have no idea what the FPTP seats are going to look like.

[jaichind]

It seems M5S support is too concentrated in the South.  It is narrowly in 3rd place in the North and Center which is not good in terms of FPTP seats.  I guess they will sweep the South FPTP seats.

[jaichind]

Praying for a M5S-PD government.

You know that if that were to take place it would not last long and if FI-LN alliance (which by then might become the LN-FI alliance) holds together they will sweep the early elections.

[DavidB.]

Lega did their share and more, but Forza simply bombed in the South. Rightly so, because Berlusconi is a con artist, but M5S aren't much better.

[jaichind]

Some Lazio numbers finally coming in.  PD doing fairly well given the circumstances.  M5S doing poorly and losing ground relative to 2013.

[Oryxslayer]

It seems M5S support is too concentrated in the South.  It is narrowly in 3rd place in the North and Center which is not good in terms of FPTP seats.  I guess they will sweep the South FPTP seats.

Yeah probably a near sweep M5S of the South, very little elsewhere. Looks like the Left will win the red belt, and perhaps some city cores/working class suburbs. The Right will win the rest - at least according to that area projection. That's good enough to probably push the Right high, but not enough for a majority.

So, the four potential governments we are looking at are:

M5S + PD, probably a confidence agreement rather than a formal pact
Right Alliance + some flips from the other groups, perhaps E+.
M5S + Lega, the least likely of these groupings
Some Right+Left agreement, though wheather the numbers are there or not depends on FPTP

[TheSaint250]

Where can I find a live results page with maps?

[DavidB.]

M5S + Lega, the least likely of these groupings

Completely unclear why this would be the case.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Where can I find a live results page with maps?

http://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20180304/scrutiniCI

[TheSaint250]

Where can I find a live results page with maps?

http://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20180304/scrutiniCI

Thanks!

[Classic Conservative]

As of my current information, 9/20 Italian citizens in my family voted. I’m pretty surprised as I thought that at most 5/20 would vote. 7 voted for the Center-Right, one for the Democrats, and one for M5S. I’d guess that maybe one or two more voted that I don’t know of yet. In the last election, four voted and most went for Forza Italia.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Lega did their share and more, but Forza simply bombed in the South. Rightly so, because Berlusconi is a con artist, but M5S aren't much better.

Agreed.

If, as many here seem to hope, we end up with an M5S-PD government, I think M5S's inevitable inability to come through on its promises and the difficulty faced by any populist anti-establishment party in maintaining the support of the dissected after entering government, coupled with Salvini having a few more years to build up Lega in the South, could lead to LN becoming an even more powerful force next time. The far left would also likely gain.

FI probably rebrands after this election and Berlussconi is finally forced out of its top spot.

[Oryxslayer]

Lega did their share and more, but Forza simply bombed in the South. Rightly so, because Berlusconi is a con artist, but M5S aren't much better.

Interesting thoughts here - perhaps it isn't Lega overpreforming, but rather Forza underperforming. The large group of undecided voters picked up by pre-election polls appears to have broken favorably towards the Right alliance in the North and the Center, leading to a strong right. However, in the South, these voters broke decisively for M5S. And the South was Forzas territory, whereas the north was Legas in the candidate division. So if the nation broke as a whole for the right, the Forza would be getting 17/16 with Lega, but because the South broke away from the Right, Forza fell below Lega.

It's a interesting theory I think.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

As of my current information, 9/20 Italian citizens in my family voted. I’m pretty surprised as I thought that at most 5/20 would vote. 7 voted for the Center-Right, one for the Democrats, and one for M5S. I’d guess that maybe one or two more voted that I don’t know of yet. In the last election, four voted and most went for Forza Italia.

Interesting. What region are they in and did the 7 vote FI, LN, or FdI?

[Classic Conservative]

As of my current information, 9/20 Italian citizens in my family voted. I’m pretty surprised as I thought that at most 5/20 would vote. 7 voted for the Center-Right, one for the Democrats, and one for M5S. I’d guess that maybe one or two more voted that I don’t know of yet. In the last election, four voted and most went for Forza Italia.

Interesting. What region are they in and did the 7 vote FI, LN, or FdI?

They’re Americans. I think it was just one vote for all three, so they could just pick center-right. Correct me if I’m wrong. My Sicilian family probably voted for M5S or Forza with a few for the Democrats. One might’ve voted for Lega, but probably unlikely. Then there’s the one cousin who we don’t talk to that voted for Casapound.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I wish the map was color coded 😭

[Oryxslayer]

Lega did their share and more, but Forza simply bombed in the South. Rightly so, because Berlusconi is a con artist, but M5S aren't much better.

Agreed.

If, as many here seem to hope, we end up with an M5S-PD government, I think M5S's inevitable inability to come through on its promises and the difficulty faced by any populist anti-establishment party in maintaining the support of the dissected after entering government, coupled with Salvini having a few more years to build up Lega in the South, could lead to LN becoming an even more powerful force next time. The far left would also likely gain.

FI probably rebrands after this election and Berlussconi is finally forced out of its top spot.

This is one of those screwed if you do, screwed if you don't types. Forza is Berlusconi, and is screwed without him. Probably sends more voters towards the other Right. But, there is no denying that Berlusconi hurt the Right this election, and probably prevented them pushing 40%.

[SPQR]

4:30 AM here, just got back home.
Seems like the 7 PM exit polls I posted were spot on...

What a nightmare.