Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Nebraska 2nd CD
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  Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Nebraska 2nd CD		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Rate NE-02 and Predict Who Will Win
#1
Safe D		  
#2
Likely D		  
#3
Lean D		  
#4
Toss-Up		  
#5
Lean R		  
#6
Likely R		  
#7
Safe R		  
#8
Clinton		  
#9
Trump		  
#10
Other		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 111

Calculate results by number of options selected
Author Topic: Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Nebraska 2nd CD  (Read 2749 times)
ElectionsGuy
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« on: September 05, 2016, 03:39:56 AM »
Two votes. One for a rating (Safe D, Lean R, Toss-Up, etc.) and one for a prediction of who will win (Clinton, Trump, or Other).

Note: If you think Johnson/Other will win a state, just vote 'Other' and don't vote for a rating.

Update/vote in these threads if you haven't already! There's no time limit and you can still affect the overall result:

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine ME-01 ME-02 Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska NE-01

Ratings



Colorado: Lean D --> Likely D

Safe Clinton: 126
Likely Clinton: 26
Lean Clinton: 29
Toss-Up: 17
Lean Trump: 26
Likely Trump: 18
Safe Trump: 49

Clinton: 181
Trump: 93
Toss-Up: 17

Predictions



Clinton: 187
Trump: 104



Previous Results

2008: 50.0% Obama, 48.8% McCain
2012: 52.9% Romney, 45.7% Obama

NE-02: Toss-Up, 48-48 Clinton, predicting it'll be the closest electoral vote decision. It could really go either way.

Colorado switched to Likely D by one vote, and ME-02 is Likely D by 1 vote as well (away from being Lean D).
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #1 on: September 05, 2016, 03:49:02 AM »
This will probably be the closest vote. I think Trump will pull it off in the end.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #2 on: September 05, 2016, 03:54:52 AM »
I think Hillary pulls it off.  The demographics are horrible for Trump, and Hillary has been making a push there.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #3 on: September 05, 2016, 04:55:18 AM »
Tossup.

Trump 49%
Clinton 46%
Other 5%
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4 on: September 05, 2016, 05:33:20 AM »
Donald Trump will lose enough college-educated white people to lose this district.
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Lachi
lok1999
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« Reply #5 on: September 05, 2016, 06:17:18 AM »
Tilt D
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LLR
LongLiveRock
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« Reply #6 on: September 05, 2016, 07:15:37 AM »
Tossup, Clinton will win by about 50 votes.
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mencken
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« Reply #7 on: September 05, 2016, 08:59:54 AM »
Why is Trump (apparently) such a good fit for Iowa and such a bad fit for Omaha? Does this bode ill for David Young's re-election bid?
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #8 on: September 05, 2016, 09:00:14 AM »
Pure toss-up.

My prediction:

✓ Clinton: 48.7%
Trump: 48.4%
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AGA
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« Reply #9 on: September 05, 2016, 09:29:13 AM »
It is important to note that the 2008 numbers for NE-02 are somewhat irrelevant since the district boundaries were changed during the 2010 redistricting. I am going to say Lean R since Romney won it by 7 points in 2012.

I am quite uncertain about these numbers due to the lack of polls here.

Trump: 51%
Clinton: 47%
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #10 on: September 05, 2016, 09:46:29 AM »
This looks to be very close. I think Hillary has a shot here, but I'd really like to see a Nebraska poll before concluding that it really could go for her.

Toss-Up, Trump wins 49-48.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
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« Reply #11 on: September 05, 2016, 10:16:09 AM »
Quote from: mencken on September 05, 2016, 08:59:54 AM
Why is Trump (apparently) such a good fit for Iowa and such a bad fit for Omaha? Does this bode ill for David Young's re-election bid?
Omaha has a much more educated electorate, plus the Iowa GOP has been mostly behind Trump.
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Tiger front
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« Reply #12 on: September 05, 2016, 10:54:30 AM »
Toss-up.
Trump 48%
Clinton 47%
Other 5%
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dspNY
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« Reply #13 on: September 05, 2016, 10:57:00 AM »
True tossup. Clinton edges it in the end, maybe by less than 100 votes
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evergreenarbor
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« Reply #14 on: September 05, 2016, 11:03:29 AM »
Tossup, might be the closest result on election day.

Clinton: 46%
Trump: 46%
Johnson: 7%
Other: 1%
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #15 on: September 05, 2016, 11:11:42 AM »
Toss-up/Tilt Trump.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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« Reply #16 on: September 05, 2016, 11:37:43 AM »
One of my BoldTM predictions for this elections is that NE-2 votes to the left of the nation as a whole, so I say:

Clinton 53%
Trump 46%
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #17 on: September 06, 2016, 05:40:56 PM »
Looks like this needs another bump.
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An American Tail: Fubart Goes West
Fubart Solman
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« Reply #18 on: September 06, 2016, 06:05:21 PM »
Clinton by about 1,500
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Coolface Sock #42069
whitesox130
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« Reply #19 on: September 06, 2016, 07:21:38 PM »
Leans Republican. This is not the same district that President Obama narrowly carried in 2008.
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Senator-elect Spark
Spark498
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« Reply #20 on: September 24, 2016, 05:09:53 PM »
Likely R.

Trump 54%
Clinton 45%
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Higgs
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« Reply #21 on: September 24, 2016, 05:42:06 PM »
I can't believe Clinton is winning in the Atlas poll rn. Some of you guys should put your money where your mouth is on predictit. If you truly think she'll win here, then you could make a lot of money.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #22 on: September 24, 2016, 05:54:18 PM »
Quote from: Higgs on September 24, 2016, 05:42:06 PM
I can't believe Clinton is winning in the Atlas poll rn. Some of you guys should put your money where your mouth is on predictit. If you truly think she'll win here, then you could make a lot of money.

It's a delay scene, and many of the voters posted their vote back when Clinton was close in Kansas, and several polls indicating she could do an Obama '08 and win NE-02.

That's why I suggested forum members go through and review their predictions, as I just did, where most of the predictions were made four-six weeks ago, to reflect our collective current understanding of the state of the GE race.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #23 on: September 24, 2016, 06:23:14 PM »
Quote from: Higgs on September 24, 2016, 05:42:06 PM
I can't believe Clinton is winning in the Atlas poll rn. Some of you guys should put your money where your mouth is on predictit. If you truly think she'll win here, then you could make a lot of money.

Earlier today it was 42-34 Clinton, now its 42-38 Clinton.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #24 on: September 29, 2016, 07:25:04 PM »
For right now I'm changing my prediction to 49-48 Trump.
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