French Legislative Election 2017

[mvd10]

Macron has got his majority so there is no excuse for not passing deep labour market reforms. It'll be interesting to see whether Macron actually will liberalize the French economy or whether he'll end up as another Chirac or Sarkozy.

The French govt is not the only organization with power to govern the labour market. The real question is how willing he will be to stomp on worker's democratic rights and how strong the worker's resistance will be.

Yeah, the protests will become a problem for him. If these reforms are stopped they will be stopped on the streets and not in parliament.

[Beet]

The left's performance was so pathetic. Socialists should have just folded into FI.

[ApatheticAustrian]

The left's performance was so pathetic. Socialists should have just folded into FI.

and if they don't like putin-tolerating euro-sceptic egomaniacs?

[mvd10]

The left's performance was so pathetic. Socialists should have just folded into FI.

and if they don't like putin-tolerating euro-sceptic egomaniacs?

Then they have flawless beautiful Macron

[jaichind]

With 76% of the vote counted it is

LREM-Modem         31.31%
LR-UDI-Misc Right   22.00%
FN                          14.39%
FI                           10.59%
PS-PRG-Misc Left      9.69%
EELV                        3.88%
PCF                          2.70%
DLF                          1.15%

LREM rise continues while LR and FN fall continues.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

How is this even possible that there is ovet 70% of votes counted?

[jaichind]

How is this even possible that there is ovet 70% of votes counted?

I think voting stopped at 7pm and counting started.  8pm polls only close in certain urban areas so for most districts we had an extra hour of vote counting.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Still, I doubt that there is more than 70% counted. AFP shows only 32% of counted.

[SunSt0rm]

Its not votes, but % of communes

[jaichind]

Still, I doubt that there is more than 70% counted. AFP shows only 32% of counted.

http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives-2017/FE.html

seems to show over 17 million votes counted.  Turnout this time is below 50%.  In 2012 near 26 million votes were counted with turnout of over 57%.  Nearly 80% of the votes counted seems right.  

[jaichind]

With 81% of the vote counted it is

LREM-Modem         31.42%
LR-UDI-Misc Right   22.06%
FN                          14.32%
FI                           10.57%
PS-PRG-Misc Left      9.57%
EELV                        3.92%
PCF                          2.72%
DLF                          1.16%

LREM continue to rise FN continue to fall.

[SunSt0rm]

Exit poll updated. LREM is projected to have a bigger majority

LREM-MoDem 415-455
LR-UDI-DVD 70-110
PS-DVG 20-30
FI-PCF 8-18
FN 1-5

[Tirnam]

Major surprise maybe in Paris, 14th. It was considered to be a safe LR seat (Fillon won 56% in the first round of the presidential election) but apparently LREM is clearly ahead with 46%

[Tirnam]

Benoit Hamon is defeated.

[Devout Centrist]

Exit poll updated. LREM is projected to have a bigger majority

LREM-MoDem 415-455
LR-UDI-DVD 70-110
PS-DVG 20-30
FI-PCF 8-18
FN 1-5

LOL at that FN number. Wow.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Benoit Hamon is defeated.

This is absolutely f**king depressing.

[Andrea]

Benoit Hamon eliminated in his constituency

Same fate for Aurélie Filippetti

Idem for Cambadélis and Matthias Fekl

The guy who defeated Segolene Royal last time is leading again (36.5%). Run off with LRM (27%)

46.02% for Marine Le Pen.

[jaichind]

With 86% of the vote counted it is

LREM-Modem         31.73%
LR-UDI-Misc Right   21.85%
FN                          14.09%
FI                           10.66%
PS-PRG-Misc Left      9.53%
EELV                        4.01%
PCF                          2.74%
DLF                          1.16%

LREM continue to rise, LR and FN continue to fall.  This trend will accelerate after Paris starts coming in, especially for FN.

[Tirnam]

Cécile Duflot defeated

[Andrea]

Elisabeth Guigou eliminated

Stéphane Le Foll qualified to the second round with 30%. 22% for LR. No LRM candidate.

[SunSt0rm]

So the only PS candidates that are probably going to survive are the ones that had no LREM candidate against them or are from Outre Mer.

Valls says to qualify for the second round with 25%, a FI candidate received 17% according to him

[windjammer]

Let's analyze FN's best pick up opportunities. It's not really difficult to find them as they have been almost located in Nord Pas de Calais(LOL). Here are the legislative seats where I believe they could win:


Nord Pas de Calais: I assume that the FI and PC voters, while obviously not voting for FN massively, they will vote more for them than in the other parts of France.

Pas de Calais:
3rd circonscription:         Windjammer prognostic for the run off: POTENTIAL FN PICK UP
M. José EVRARD (b)

FN

31,69%

M. Patrick DEBRUYNE (b)

Modem

16,99%

M. Jean-Marc TELLIER

PC

16,39%

M. Djordje KUZMANOVIC

France insoumise

11,29%

Mme Frédérique MASSON

PS

8,96%

Mme Sabine BANACH-FINEZ

LR

4,74%

M. Jamel OUFQIR





10th circonscription:            Windjammer prognostic for the run off: LEAN EN MARCHE


M. Ludovic PAJOT (b)

FN

31,30%

Mme Laurence DESCHANEL (b)

Rép. en marche

20,52%

M. Bernard CAILLIAU

PS

17,93%

M. Gauthier JANKOWSKI

France insoumise

12,82%

M. Nesrédine RAMDANI

LR

5,27%

M. Ludovic GUYOT

PC 4.97


11th circonscription:              Windjammer prognostic for the run off: LIKELY FN PICK UP
Mme Marine LE PEN (b)

FN

46,02%

Mme Anne ROQUET (b)

Rép. en marche

16,43%

M. Philippe KEMEL

PS

10,83%

M. Jean-Pierre CARPENTIER

France insoumise

9,97%

M. Hervé POLY

PC

5,00%

Mme Alexandrine PINTUS

LR

4,18%

Mme Marine TONDELIER

Ecologiste



12th circonscription:               Windjammer prognostic for the run off: POTENTIAL FN PICK UP

M. Bruno BILDE (b)

FN

35,53%

Mme Coralie REMBERT (b)

Rép. en marche

20,84%

M. Laurent DUPORGE

PS

16,05%

M. Grégory FRACKOWIAK

France insoumise

12,04%

Mme Caroline MELONI

LR

4,19%

M. Christian CHAMPIRE

PC

4,17%



----------------------
Nord

19th circonscription:           Windjammer prognostic for the run off: POTENTIAL FN PICK UP
M. Sébastien CHENU (b)

FN

33,21%

Mme Sabine HEBBAR (b)

Modem

18,08%

Mme Anne-Lise DUFOUR-TONINI

PS

14,08%

M. Julien POIX

France insoumise

12,83%

M. Pascal JEAN

PC

9,76%

M. Olivier CAPRON

LR

6,94%





HERAULT

6th circonscription:      Windjammer prognoctic: LEAN EN MARCHE

Mme Emmanuelle MÉNARD

FN

35,41%

Mme Isabelle VOYER

Rép. en marche

24,72%

M. Elie ABOUD

LR

18,28%

M. David GARCIA

France insoumise

9,90%

M. Antonio FULLEDA

PS

4,70%

M. Nicolas COSSANGE

PC

3,24%






And that's all lol (maybe I forgot some but not many). The results for the cities haven't been reported yet, so except maybe Marseilles, they won't win any seats in the big cities.

[Zinneke]

Benoit Hamon is defeated.

This is absolutely f**king depressing.

They are rejecting party politics. The Socialist Party, in both our countries, is the embidoment of everything that is wrong with party politics : clientalism, spin, tit-for-tat spats, favours for the boys (and their family). Onfray sums it up here at around 13min

https://youtu.be/ft375UHpLys?t=12m59s  

The PS apparatchiks, including Hamon in his party-centered prism. disapearing is just about the only positive other than FN's poor result. We're going back to the presidential system that De Gaulle intended when he wrote the 5th Republic. Macron will have the power to captain the nation rather than play the referee. If you don't like it, vote for 6th Republic parties.

Pyrénées-Atlantiques, 4th (Jean Lassalle)

Corrégé (LREM): 25.41%
Lassalle: 17.71%

Lassalle better win, damnit.

He will get the regionalist votes I think

[Beet]

The left's performance was so pathetic. Socialists should have just folded into FI.

and if they don't like putin-tolerating euro-sceptic egomaniacs?

Then they have flawless beautiful Macron

Pretty much this. The left is so divided, they needed to come together. Only question is if they even get another chance.

[Beezer]

Why is the PS all of a sudden at 13%?

LREM 32 %
LR 21.2 %
Fi 14.2 %
FN 13.9 %
PS 13.3 %
Autres 5.4 %

https://twitter.com/HippoRds/status/873998749571444736