State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread
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Author Topic: State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread  (Read 178672 times)
Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #1950 on: February 27, 2018, 09:54:51 PM »
I am sure every week even more strong Trump supporters may think it is time for him to eat some salmon in San Fransico.

I am afraid the only fun I will have in November will be to watch that stupid Hannity trying to explain what is happening.  I am sure he will blame everyone but Trump.

I just wish some of you would get your swing o’ meters right. If one party wins a seat 55% to 45% in one election and loses 55% to 45% in the next, that is a 10% swing not a 20% swing.  Please do not make up your own swing rules. You are getting a good swing.   You do not need to exaggerate it.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1951 on: February 27, 2018, 10:22:57 PM »
Quote from: Dwarven Dragon on February 27, 2018, 09:11:35 PM
Here's the Schedule for March:

March 6, 2018
[show]☐ Massachusetts State Senate Third Essex District   
[show]☐ Oklahoma House of Representatives District 51   

March 13, 2018
[show]☐ Tennessee State Senate District 14   
MS-60 RUNOFF (R v. R)

March 24, 2018
[show]☐ Louisiana House of Representatives District 93   
LA-86 RUNOFF (R v. R)

March 27, 2018
[show]☐ Alabama House of Representatives District 21   

No Rs running in Massachusetts. Oklahoma R candidate outpacing D candidate in facebook likes 9:1. He seems favored to win easily. Tennessee state senate district could be very interesting. Gayle Jordan (D) has a very strong social media presence and the Ten GOP even attacked her! And her R opponent hasn't posted on facebook in three days.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1952 on: February 27, 2018, 10:31:32 PM »
Going into a an election on terrain like Democrats did tonight and coming away with 2 out of 3 seats should scare the hell out of the GOP.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1953 on: February 27, 2018, 10:34:21 PM »
LOL
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Doimper
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« Reply #1954 on: February 27, 2018, 10:42:18 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on February 27, 2018, 10:34:21 PM
LOL



Who is this person, and why are you constantly posting about him?
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Ted Cruz 2024
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« Reply #1955 on: February 27, 2018, 11:30:32 PM »
Quote from: Ted Cruz 2024 on February 26, 2018, 10:40:36 PM
CT lean republican
KY likely republican
NH lean democrat

Those are my ratings.
Well this was a fail.
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Sestak
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« Reply #1956 on: February 28, 2018, 12:56:29 AM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on February 27, 2018, 10:34:21 PM
LOL



Omg, 972 whole people are talking about it! How relevant!
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #1957 on: February 28, 2018, 12:57:18 AM »
CT-GOV is toss-up as expected (with both Trump and Malloy extremely unpopular), but generally - good night for Democrats. Nevertheless - it's 8+ month before elections, so ANY forecast now is a preliminary guess...
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Sestak
jk2020
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« Reply #1958 on: February 28, 2018, 01:16:14 AM »
Quote from: Arkansas Yankee on February 27, 2018, 09:54:51 PM
I am sure every week even more strong Trump supporters may think it is time for him to eat some salmon in San Fransico.

I am afraid the only fun I will have in November will be to watch that stupid Hannity trying to explain what is happening.  I am sure he will blame everyone but Trump.

I just wish some of you would get your swing o’ meters right. If one party wins a seat 55% to 45% in one election and loses 55% to 45% in the next, that is a 10% swing not a 20% swing.  Please do not make up your own swing rules. You are getting a good swing.   You do not need to exaggerate it.

Wait, I thought swings were in margins and shifts were in raw percentage?
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OneJ
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« Reply #1959 on: February 28, 2018, 01:25:28 AM »
Quote from: Sestak on February 28, 2018, 01:16:14 AM
Quote from: Arkansas Yankee on February 27, 2018, 09:54:51 PM
I am sure every week even more strong Trump supporters may think it is time for him to eat some salmon in San Fransico.

I am afraid the only fun I will have in November will be to watch that stupid Hannity trying to explain what is happening.  I am sure he will blame everyone but Trump.

I just wish some of you would get your swing o’ meters right. If one party wins a seat 55% to 45% in one election and loses 55% to 45% in the next, that is a 10% swing not a 20% swing.  Please do not make up your own swing rules. You are getting a good swing.   You do not need to exaggerate it.

Wait, I thought swings were in margins and shifts were in raw percentage?

I thought I was the only one who noticed. Besides, that's how Atlas defines swing if you look at the election results that includes swing from previous election.
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Holmes
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« Reply #1960 on: February 28, 2018, 01:52:57 AM »
Yeah, that's how Dave does it on his maps.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1961 on: February 28, 2018, 03:06:16 AM »
Also defining swings as margin change is reasonably better when there are 3rd party candidates involved.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1962 on: February 28, 2018, 02:48:41 PM »
Latest from @ScottPresler:

I wish the United States government were as concerned with illegal aliens criminally voting in our elections as they are with Russian tampering,

since more than 100,000 non-citizens are registered to vote in Pennsylvania.
#WednesdayWisdom
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Sestak
jk2020
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« Reply #1963 on: February 28, 2018, 03:13:44 PM »
Quote from: Dwarven Dragon on February 28, 2018, 02:48:41 PM
Latest from @ScottPresler:

I wish the United States government were as concerned with illegal aliens criminally voting in our elections as they are with Russian tampering,

since more than 100,000 non-citizens are registered to vote in Pennsylvania.
#WednesdayWisdom

NOT YOU TOO. Limo's bad enough with this guy.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1964 on: February 28, 2018, 04:23:01 PM »
Quote from: Sestak on February 28, 2018, 03:13:44 PM
Quote from: Dwarven Dragon on February 28, 2018, 02:48:41 PM
Latest from @ScottPresler:

I wish the United States government were as concerned with illegal aliens criminally voting in our elections as they are with Russian tampering,

since more than 100,000 non-citizens are registered to vote in Pennsylvania.
#WednesdayWisdom

NOT YOU TOO. Limo's bad enough with this guy.

He's one of the most prominent republican troll on twitter, having 224 thousand followers. I'll quote him if I want to.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #1965 on: February 28, 2018, 07:52:13 PM »
Quote from: OneJ_ on February 28, 2018, 01:25:28 AM
Quote from: Sestak on February 28, 2018, 01:16:14 AM
Quote from: Arkansas Yankee on February 27, 2018, 09:54:51 PM
I am sure every week even more strong Trump supporters may think it is time for him to eat some salmon in San Fransico.

I am afraid the only fun I will have in November will be to watch that stupid Hannity trying to explain what is happening.  I am sure he will blame everyone but Trump.

I just wish some of you would get your swing o’ meters right. If one party wins a seat 55% to 45% in one election and loses 55% to 45% in the next, that is a 10% swing not a 20% swing.  Please do not make up your own swing rules. You are getting a good swing.   You do not need to exaggerate it.

Wait, I thought swings were in margins and shifts were in raw percentage?

I thought I was the only one who noticed. Besides, that's how Atlas defines swing if you look at the election results that includes swing from previous election.

Ok if I tell you a winning candidate won with 61% of the vote and a 20% swing, what would you give as the swing that candidate’s party?
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junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
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« Reply #1966 on: February 28, 2018, 08:36:56 PM »
The GOP is done
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #1967 on: March 01, 2018, 02:56:37 AM »
^ So, say, in 1940th or 1950th, Democrats (who absolutely dominated state politics then) still let some Republicans to be elected free? Frankly speaking - i doubt...
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Pragmatic Conservative
1184AZ
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« Reply #1968 on: March 04, 2018, 11:48:52 PM »
Republican  Maryland State Senator for the 35th district H. Wayne Norman Jr died today

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/harford/aegis/ph-ag-wayne-norman-dies-0307-story.html
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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« Reply #1969 on: March 05, 2018, 12:42:30 AM »

rip, seemed like a good person.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
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« Reply #1970 on: March 05, 2018, 12:55:27 AM »
Quote from: smoltchanov on March 01, 2018, 02:56:37 AM
^ So, say, in 1940th or 1950th, Democrats (who absolutely dominated state politics then) still let some Republicans to be elected free? Frankly speaking - i doubt...

The rural counties in the western mountains have always been Republican since the Civil War, like Eastern Tennessee.
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smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1971 on: March 05, 2018, 01:15:36 AM »
Quote from: Party Like It's 2006 on March 05, 2018, 12:55:27 AM
Quote from: smoltchanov on March 01, 2018, 02:56:37 AM
^ So, say, in 1940th or 1950th, Democrats (who absolutely dominated state politics then) still let some Republicans to be elected free? Frankly speaking - i doubt...

The rural counties in the western mountains have always been Republican since the Civil War, like Eastern Tennessee.

To the extent, that Democrats didn't run candidates at all there? Well, good...
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #1972 on: March 05, 2018, 05:47:21 PM »

This is deep Republican Cecil/Hartford County.
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Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1973 on: March 05, 2018, 08:06:51 PM »
68-27 trump, though, I know this area well and it would be open to a manchin like dem
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1974 on: March 06, 2018, 01:39:46 PM »
Two specials tonight!

OK-51 (8 ET): https://www.ok.gov/elections/support/ok_results_seb.html
Massachusetts State Senate Third Essex District (8 ET): Good luck searching Smiley
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