Malaysia General Election May 9th 2018

[jaichind]

In Sarawak seat P203 Lubok Antu an unknown independent is ahead in a close 3 way race over BN and PKR.   If he wins that would be another target of poaching by both sides.

[Polkergeist]

Pakatan Harapan chairperson Dr Mahathir Mohamad has won the Langkawi parliament seat, according to Astro Awani.

[jaichind]

I think if I were BN this would be a good time for those blackouts to begin (there were a bunch them in 2013 but it was really never proved that they were related to any real cheating.)

[jaichind]

BN 49 PH 46 PAS 3 Pro-PH Ind 1 Unknown Ind 1

[Polkergeist]

The official Malaysian Electoral Commission website has mostly results for Sarawak. 23 Sarawak seats reported are BN 13, PH 9, Oth 1

I have the leaders in Sarawak as BN 16, PH 10, Oth 1

At least in Sarawak the results are being reported somewhat in accordance with the unofficial results

[Polkergeist]

Official results in Sarawak are now BN 16, PH 10, Oth 2.

Only two other seats reported officially. (Labuan & 1 KL seat)

[jaichind]

Sarawak right now is BN 17 PH 10 Ind 2 with outstanding.  One of the 2 outstanding has PKR well ahead.  The Sarawak result this year it a an unexpected disaster for BN.  This is ironic well all the media coverage so far has been about how Sarawak does not care about the various BN corruption scandals and that they will vote BN for sure (except for the Chinese seats.)

[jaichind]

Mahathir's son Mukhriz Mahathir is also ahead in his race in Kedah. 

[jaichind]

All signs are that PH and PAS doing well in Kedah and BN under-performing  in unofficial results.

[jaichind]

MCA and MIC facing wipeout.  The BN gerrymandering made all their seats worse in an attempt to protect UNMO seats.  Not sure how many UNMO seats were saved there but MCA and MIC got killed.

[jaichind]

Sarawak done:  BN 19 PH 10 Ind 2.  I was wrong about that PKR guy ahead.   That seat was called for BN just now.

[Polkergeist]

Negeri Sembilan has fallen, claims Harapan

10.05pm: (Unofficial) In Seremban, Negeri Sembilan Harapan chief Aminuddin Harun declares that a "tsunami rakyat" has swept through the state

Interesting as we haven't had too many results from Negeri tonight..

[jaichind]

BN 54 PH 51 PAS 4 Pro-PH Ind 1 Unknown Ind 1

Rest of seats have more and more of a PH lean outside of Sabah and Kelantan.  Kelantan should most go BN but Sabah seems like PH will make a lot of gains.  BN running out seats to win to get to majority.

[jaichind]

PH wins P2 Kangar in Perlis.  This is the fist time that BN has lost a Perlis seat since like ever.

[jaichind]

The MSCI Malaysia ETF (EWM) is fairly flat which is a surprise.  Given there is a good chance of a hung parliament I am surprise there is no selloff

[Polkergeist]

Based on the unofficial leaders on both myundi websites linked earlier in the thread I get the following;

BN   68   (-22)
PH   64   (+18)
GS   8   (+1)
OTH   7   (+3)


75 seats to report

Seat changes in brackets

BN now trail in more of their incumbent seats than needed to lose their majority (21).

To win a majority BN will need to either pull ahead in seats where they are behind or win opposition held seats yet to report.

[Novelty]

PH wins P2 Kangar in Perlis.  This is the fist time that BN has lost a Perlis seat since like ever.

That's a surprise. I don't think anyone called that.  Did you see that coming @jaichind?

[jaichind]

 
Sabah will also see state elections as well.  For the  Tambunan seat we will most likely see a 3 brother election of the Kitingan clan.


PBS founder and former CM and now DCM Joseph Pairin Kitingan will run representing PBS as part of BN.  STAR founder Jeffrey Kitingan who formed PBS along with his brother back in the 1980s but have since broke with his brother and went over to the opposition will also run.  It seems a third brother Crispin Kitingan who has been not as involved in politics will also run in the same seat representing WARISAN.


Left to right Joseph Pairin Kitingan, Jeffrey Kitingan, Crispin Kitingan.

This is the first election I have seen where all 3 major candidates are brothers.

In the end  WARISAN did not nominate Crispin Kitingan so we will not have a brother vs brother vs brother race.  BUT  WARISAN instead nominated Justin Alip who is the brother-in-law of both Joseph Pairin Kitingan and Jeffrey Kitingan.  Justin Alip was a key lieutenant of  Joseph Pairin Kitingan until Jan of this year when he defected from PBS to  WARISAN.

So instead of brother vs brother vs brother we will have brother vs brother vs brother-in-law.

So far it is

BN-PBS Joseph Pairin Kitingan 4036
USA-STAR  Jeffrey Kitingan 4777
WARISAN Justin Alip 1122

It seems PBS founder and DCM (and former CM) Joseph Pairin Kitingan will be defeated in his seat if this trend holds.

[jaichind]

PH wins P2 Kangar in Perlis.  This is the fist time that BN has lost a Perlis seat since like ever.

That's a surprise. I don't think anyone called that.  Did you see that coming @jaichind?

Nope.  I was not even close.  My model called for PH 23% BN 46% PAS 31%.  The PAS vote held up but it seems there was a massive swing away from BN to PH.

[Oryxslayer]

Official results in Sarawak are now BN 16, PH 10, Oth 2.

Only two other seats reported officially. (Labuan & 1 KL seat)

I'm back from my final and whoa this is close. Anyway, I wanted to comment of Sarawak. While there were obvious local factors in play, a big factor I think was the underpopulation of some of these seats. A little targeted campaigning can flip a few people, and if there are less total voters, this shift is a greater % of the total.

Wait when did the PH flip langkawi, that was like a super safe seat i think. Edit part 2 - oh its Mathaiers seat. My bad.

[Novelty]

PH wins P2 Kangar in Perlis.  This is the fist time that BN has lost a Perlis seat since like ever.

That's a surprise. I don't think anyone called that.  Did you see that coming @jaichind?

Nope.  I was not even close.  My model called for PH 23% BN 46% PAS 31%.  The PAS vote held up but it seems there was a massive swing away from BN to PH.

Kangar is the state capital.  I'm guessing this seat should be suburban instead of rural

[Polkergeist]

Here is how Malaysiakini sees it...

Things looking up for Harapan

10.30pm - ANALYSIS: As of 10.30pm, the results appear tight with BN winning 54 parliamentary seats to Harapan's 51 seats while PAS has four seats.

However, things are looking much better for Harapan as the majority of seats the opposition won as of now were at BN's expense.

The unofficial results for Harapan stronghold seats, which are usually huge, have yet to be released.

Therefore, it is expected that there will be a flood of seats in favour of Harapan at the late stage.

At the time of this entry, BN has already lost 23 parliamentary seats, with 19 going to Harapan and four to PAS.

However, BN only wrested two parliamentary seats from Harapan and another three from PAS.

[jaichind]

PH wins P2 Kangar in Perlis.  This is the fist time that BN has lost a Perlis seat since like ever.

That's a surprise. I don't think anyone called that.  Did you see that coming @jaichind?

Nope.  I was not even close.  My model called for PH 23% BN 46% PAS 31%.  The PAS vote held up but it seems there was a massive swing away from BN to PH.

Kangar is the state capital.  I'm guessing this seat should be suburban instead of rural

Perhaps. Although BN  Perlis totally under performed in the other 2  Perlis  seats and nearly lost one of them.  This feels more like a  Perlis swing against BN. 

[Polkergeist]

PH holds a strong position in Johor in unofficial returns


Seats Leading
PH 13
BN 7
Not yet reporting 6

All non-reporting seats have BN incumbents

[Novelty]

Anyone have a list of seas changing hands?