2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Landslide Lyndon]

Elliot Morris is saying since last spring that Dems will win the congressional vote by 9.

[wbrocks67]

It never stops being about Trump's base. Ever. Even when they're losing. "Liberal Media" my ass.

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1059103844154662912

[Aurelio21]

The GCB of these polls point only to rural white men/women returning to the GOP, primarily in the south/mountain west. There is a video that oddly enough Latino men in the west start liking Donald Trump.

The talk about a blue wave is misleading, just like a projekt Veritas Video About Things we already know about the democratic candidates. Just apply the Homer-Simpson-ROck-Bottom technique, and Things I look up at Google Sound like words from Joseph Stalin:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SqDP8SnPVA0


More indicative are the here mentioned GCBs of battleground states:
PA: D+15
OH: D+1(from -11)
IA: D+6
NJ: D+20
Just remembered the aforementioned polls, correct me if wrong.

This is a semi-realignment election, with core Republican constituencies switching to the Democrats/abstaining and the Republicans becoming a primarily rural Party, and thus completing the 1860 reversal.


Edit:

It never stops being about Trump's base. Ever. Even when they're losing. "Liberal Media" my ass.

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1059103844154662912

I totally agree - the DNC should take an inversed 1860 election as inspiration. Let the Republicans take the strategically losing position of the then-pro-slavery Democrats, i e the coalition of rural voters and super rich southern millionaires/billionaires.

[wbrocks67]

The GCB of these polls point only to rural white men/women returning to the GOP, primarily in the south/mountain west. There is a video that oddly enough Latino men in the west start liking Donald Trump.

The talk about a blue wave is misleading, just like a projekt Veritas Video About Things we already know about the democratic candidates. Just apply the Homer-Simpson-ROck-Bottom technique, and Things I look up at Google Sound like words from Joseph Stalin:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SqDP8SnPVA0


More indicative are the here mentioned GCBs of battleground states:
PA: D+15
OH: D+1(from -11)
IA: D+6
NJ: D+20
Just remembered the aforementioned polls, correct me if wrong.

This is a semi-realignment election, with core Republican constituencies switching to the Democrats/abstaining and the Republicans becoming a primarily rural Party, and thus completing the 1860 reversal.

Iowa shouldn't be surprising to me because it's so swingy, but I definitely didn't expect at D+6.

[Aurelio21]

The GCB of these polls point only to rural white men/women returning to the GOP, primarily in the south/mountain west. There is a video that oddly enough Latino men in the west start liking Donald Trump.

The talk about a blue wave is misleading, just like a projekt Veritas Video About Things we already know about the democratic candidates. Just apply the Homer-Simpson-ROck-Bottom technique, and Things I look up at Google Sound like words from Joseph Stalin:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SqDP8SnPVA0


More indicative are the here mentioned GCBs of battleground states:
PA: D+15
OH: D+1(from -11)
IA: D+6
NJ: D+20
Just remembered the aforementioned polls, correct me if wrong.

This is a semi-realignment election, with core Republican constituencies switching to the Democrats/abstaining and the Republicans becoming a primarily rural Party, and thus completing the 1860 reversal.

Iowa shouldn't be surprising to me because it's so swingy, but I definitely didn't expect at D+6.

Iowa is from the most recent Ann Selzer poll which did the Iowa GCB even for the congressional districts - see my posters above.

[Person Man]

The GCB of these polls point only to rural white men/women returning to the GOP, primarily in the south/mountain west. There is a video that oddly enough Latino men in the west start liking Donald Trump.

The talk about a blue wave is misleading, just like a projekt Veritas Video About Things we already know about the democratic candidates. Just apply the Homer-Simpson-ROck-Bottom technique, and Things I look up at Google Sound like words from Joseph Stalin:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SqDP8SnPVA0


More indicative are the here mentioned GCBs of battleground states:
PA: D+15
OH: D+1(from -11)
IA: D+6
NJ: D+20
Just remembered the aforementioned polls, correct me if wrong.

This is a semi-realignment election, with core Republican constituencies switching to the Democrats/abstaining and the Republicans becoming a primarily rural Party, and thus completing the 1860 reversal.


Edit:

It never stops being about Trump's base. Ever. Even when they're losing. "Liberal Media" my ass.

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1059103844154662912

I totally agree - the DNC should take an inversed 1860 election as inspiration. Let the Republicans take the strategically losing position of the then-pro-slavery Democrats, i e the coalition of rural voters and super rich southern millionaires/billionaires.

So it is now better to consider the Republican Party a Populist party than a Conservative one?

[GeorgiaModerate]

The GCB of these polls point only to rural white men/women returning to the GOP, primarily in the south/mountain west. There is a video that oddly enough Latino men in the west start liking Donald Trump.

The talk about a blue wave is misleading, just like a projekt Veritas Video About Things we already know about the democratic candidates. Just apply the Homer-Simpson-ROck-Bottom technique, and Things I look up at Google Sound like words from Joseph Stalin:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SqDP8SnPVA0


More indicative are the here mentioned GCBs of battleground states:
PA: D+15
OH: D+1(from -11)
IA: D+6
NJ: D+20
Just remembered the aforementioned polls, correct me if wrong.

This is a semi-realignment election, with core Republican constituencies switching to the Democrats/abstaining and the Republicans becoming a primarily rural Party, and thus completing the 1860 reversal.


Edit:

It never stops being about Trump's base. Ever. Even when they're losing. "Liberal Media" my ass.

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1059103844154662912

I totally agree - the DNC should take an inversed 1860 election as inspiration. Let the Republicans take the strategically losing position of the then-pro-slavery Democrats, i e the coalition of rural voters and super rich southern millionaires/billionaires.

So it is now better to consider the Republican Party a Populist party than a Conservative one?

Probably, although I think Nationalist is an even better description.

[Aurelio21]

The GCB of these polls point only to rural white men/women returning to the GOP, primarily in the south/mountain west. There is a video that oddly enough Latino men in the west start liking Donald Trump.

The talk about a blue wave is misleading, just like a projekt Veritas Video About Things we already know about the democratic candidates. Just apply the Homer-Simpson-ROck-Bottom technique, and Things I look up at Google Sound like words from Joseph Stalin:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SqDP8SnPVA0


More indicative are the here mentioned GCBs of battleground states:
PA: D+15
OH: D+1(from -11)
IA: D+6
NJ: D+20
Just remembered the aforementioned polls, correct me if wrong.

This is a semi-realignment election, with core Republican constituencies switching to the Democrats/abstaining and the Republicans becoming a primarily rural Party, and thus completing the 1860 reversal.


Edit:

It never stops being about Trump's base. Ever. Even when they're losing. "Liberal Media" my ass.

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1059103844154662912

I totally agree - the DNC should take an inversed 1860 election as inspiration. Let the Republicans take the strategically losing position of the then-pro-slavery Democrats, i e the coalition of rural voters and super rich southern millionaires/billionaires.

So it is now better to consider the Republican Party a Populist party than a Conservative one?

Probably, although I think Nationalist is an even better description.

I'd like to abstain from cheap labeling as I likely have a different definition of terms of "Nation"/"Populist". Basically, the republican coalition appears to me to have a nativist common ground. This might be a more coherent one than the democratic coalition. But it does not appeal to urban/suburban voters.

[Florida Man for Crime]

NBC/WSJ Final poll is D+7

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/democrats-hold-7-point-edge-final-national-nbc-wsj-poll-n931001

Yeah, this is not good at all. I had hoped (not expected) that Dems maintain the higher leads they had previously been getting in the quality polls.

Dems are still favorites to take the House, but the chances are notably lower than they were a few days ago. The only argument that all is well is "maybe the undecideds will break Dem," "maybe the district polls will be more accurate," or "hopefully this is just the quality pollsters herding towards the cheap pollsters" etc. Indeed, maybe so. But also maybe not. This is not very persuasive or confidence inspiring.

I'm feeling significantly more like 2016 than I was yesterday, where Dems seem to have a lead and be likely to win, but where it is too close for comfort. That doesn't mean the outcome will be like 2016, but it also doesn't mean that it won't be like 2016.

In sum, not good. Not good at all.

[Comrade Funk]

DEMS
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A
R
R
A
Y

[KingSweden]

If y’all are freaking out over one percentage point hanged in the GCB, I can’t imagine the whiplash you’ll show on Election Night. Fortunately I won’t be on Atlas at all that day. You can only take so many hottakes

I mean the server will probably crash again so none of us will be on Atlas

[ON Progressive]

If y’all are freaking out over one percentage point hanged in the GCB, I can’t imagine the whiplash you’ll show on Election Night. Fortunately I won’t be on Atlas at all that day. You can only take so many hottakes

Seriously. I know Atlas loves to overreact to things, but this is absolutely ridiculous.

[Aurelio21]

Yeah, this is not good at all. I had hoped (not expected) that Dems maintain the higher leads they had previously been getting in the quality polls.

[…]

I'm feeling significantly more like 2016 than I was yesterday, where Dems seem to have a lead and be likely to win, but where it is too close for comfort. That doesn't mean the outcome will be like 2016, but it also doesn't mean that it won't be like 2016.

In sum, not good. Not good at all.

To cheer up a little all those with concerns
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QjrWg0q4lBE

If you read the full reports of the quality pollsters, the Rep surge mainly stems from rural GOP voters where the cultural conservatism/evangelical voters are dominant. Thus not the Mid-West as the Ann Selzer Poll (Iowa GCB: D+6) demonstrates.

Seniors +15 %points for Dems. Honestly, the DNC should Appeal like Sen John Warner(Arch-R) to their Civic duties maintaining your republic of liberties. Those phony "Project Veritas"-type pseudo-activists which always are talking about "preserving the constitutional liberties" by disregarding your constitutions(amendmends 1, 13, 14 and 19 in particular, intentional misinterpretation of Amendment 2) should be easily dismantled as authoritarians.

S.Kornacki avoids the word "realignment" like a vampire the daylight. Basically, this is it: a Realignment Election. Suburbs go hard to the Democrats. Just imagine, Sen. John Warner endorses local democratic candidates. This is not conservative vs. liberal, this is rural nativist conservative versus liberal conservative(in the European sense) voter coalitions.

To clarify what my formerly posted state GCBs in seats mean:
Pennsylvania: +4to6
Michigan:        +2to3
Iowa:              +2 (+3 if Mr King goes down, he was TRIAGED)
NJ:                 +4to5
Further estimates (and the NYT/Siena polls are weighed conservatively)
NY:       +2
ME:    +2
FL:      +1
VA:    +2to3 , see above who endorsed (except for VA10) the respective Democrats
CO:  +1
AZ:  +1
KS:  +1to2 (thx to KKKobach+BrownBack)

(Minnesota: assumed neutral as the rural R surge will take MN1+8 instead of 2+3)
See, 23 seats in suburbs without TX, CA, WA, state), UT and the max. No of pickups including a reasonable amount of a margin of error.
This is how to interpret the GCB of NBC+WashPost/ABC: Surge in irrelevant rural CDs for the Republicans, the Democrats have a stable new voter coalition with reliable voters (liberal conservative suburbanites and seniors who do not like the fearmongering. All this with a reconciliating message instead of "if they go low, we go lower", yet negative on Trumpanites and their allies like Alex Jones)

[Florida Man for Crime]

If y’all are freaking out over one percentage point hanged in the GCB, I can’t imagine the whiplash you’ll show on Election Night. Fortunately I won’t be on Atlas at all that day. You can only take so many hottakes

Seriously. I know Atlas loves to overreact to things, but this is absolutely ridiculous.

It would be completely ridiculous we were betting over the outcome of, say, a football game. But it is not completely ridiculous given the stakes. There is serious cause for worry that Rs could maintain the House (but no real doubt that Dems will win the popular vote by a pretty good margin), which would be disastrous for American democracy.

[Florida Man for Crime]

If you read the full reports of the quality pollsters, the Rep surge mainly stems from rural GOP voters where the cultural conservatism/evangelical voters are dominant.

The sub-samples are too small to say anything like that with actual confidence. That is just the sort of thing that media says in stories about polls, because they have to write about something, and it sounds meaningful/exciting to the readers/audience.

[Xing]

Wait, we're seriously going all Chicken Little because of a statistically insignificant change in one poll? Oh yeah, I forgot, this is Atlas. The polls suggest what we already know: The House isn't a sure thing, but Democrats are heavily favored.

[wbrocks67]

NBC/WSJ Final poll is D+7

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/democrats-hold-7-point-edge-final-national-nbc-wsj-poll-n931001

Yeah, this is not good at all. I had hoped (not expected) that Dems maintain the higher leads they had previously been getting in the quality polls.

Dems are still favorites to take the House, but the chances are notably lower than they were a few days ago. The only argument that all is well is "maybe the undecideds will break Dem," "maybe the district polls will be more accurate," or "hopefully this is just the quality pollsters herding towards the cheap pollsters" etc. Indeed, maybe so. But also maybe not. This is not very persuasive or confidence inspiring.

I'm feeling significantly more like 2016 than I was yesterday, where Dems seem to have a lead and be likely to win, but where it is too close for comfort. That doesn't mean the outcome will be like 2016, but it also doesn't mean that it won't be like 2016.

In sum, not good. Not good at all.

ABC and NBC have it at 7-8. The 538 average has been about 8 for literally *months* now. I'm failing to see how this is a big deal.

Also, it's not cheap to say that undecideds will break Dem. It's just factually plausible based on every other midterm (and most presidential years).

The point, again, that somehow everyone is missing, is that the GOP has barely cracked 43-44%. I'm not sure how the spin is becoming "Dems in Disarray!" versus "The GOP hasn't cracked 44% all cycle long"

[wbrocks67]

Also, I'm not gonna even get into the "CW" or Punditry this weekend or tomorrow about Dems being in Disarray because we all remember what happened in 2017. Most pundits were saying Northam was screwing up, that Gillepsie was "closing in" (the infamous Morning Joe clip), and then we saw what happened. Not saying that will happen again here, but we've seen all cycle that with this president, the people left over / the "enthusiasm" gap favors the Dems. Which makes total sense because they are out of power and Trump has a 42% approval rating.

[Florida Man for Crime]

ABC and NBC have it at 7-8. The 538 average has been about 8 for literally *months* now. I'm failing to see how this is a big deal.

Previously, Dems had been doing better. The overall polling average was generally a compromise between junky polls that often had Dem leads at 7-8 or a bit lower and better quality polls, many of which (often but not always) had low-double digit leads for Dems.

It is true, there is not a huge basis for saying that Dems are now doing worse in live phone polls than before, but that is because we have so damned few recent live phone polls (and so many internet/robopolls). The way I look at the GCB, the vast majority of polls in it are methodologically questionable junky polls. So to me, the handful of higher quality live phone polls that we do have are relatively more important. And they are certainly more meaningful than the next Harris/Rassmusen/whatever GCB poll.

Also, I'm not gonna even get into the "CW" or Punditry this weekend or tomorrow about Dems being in Disarray because we all remember what happened in 2017. Most pundits were saying Northam was screwing up, that Gillepsie was "closing in" (the infamous Morning Joe clip), and then we saw what happened. Not saying that will happen again here, but we've seen all cycle that with this president, the people left over / the "enthusiasm" gap favors the Dems. Which makes total sense because they are out of power and Trump has a 42% approval rating.

Sure. It may (or may not) be like VA Gov 2017.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Wow gop doing worse with seniors than they are nationwide as a whole

[GeorgiaModerate]

I wish I had the Valium concession for this forum.

[Aurelio21]

To be fair, those racist hick margins will matter in a lot of close Senate contests. Hence why I’m pretty pessimistic there

To be fair, those racist hick margins will matter in a lot of close Senate contests. Hence why I’m pretty pessimistic there
[/quote]
I totally agree, yet the senate was never really in play. Turning around this structural deficit the DNC/reasonable Republicans never tried.

To put it simply, there will be no uniform swing of D+8 or more. Yes, a 2016 redux taking the House is likely, with the exception of the MidWest like the Ann Selzer poll implies. Thus Obama-Trump-voters there returning into the democratic coalition, Extended by an accelerated coalition with Romney-Clinton voters. B Goldwater and R Reagan would be Democrats today! The GOP has been taken over by Pence and Alex Jones, and DJ Trump serves them as titular head and connection to the billionaire class to comfort them.
And the Virginia'17 extended and accelerated in these year's special election, see OH12!

What can you ask more? Did you expect Mr DJ Trump to stop campaigning?

I do not like calling the rural voters "racist hicks". I am from Germany, trust me, real racism is far more than this phenomenon ;-) To be clear, if I had a time machine, I would go back discretely to 1918 to the battlefields of the Somme and "execute" a certain "bohemian" (sic) corporal. Basically, I would wish we had an 2nd Amendment style passage in our constitution here, yet executed sanely.

This is called "ingroup preference" and quite natural. Mr Trump and his allies(Alex Jones, James O'Keefe, Rupert Murdock(An Australian, wtf has he to tell US citizens what to think) and Sean Heannity) play skillfully on these emotions.

[wbrocks67]

ABC and NBC have it at 7-8. The 538 average has been about 8 for literally *months* now. I'm failing to see how this is a big deal.

Previously, Dems had been doing better. The overall polling average was generally a compromise between junky polls that often had Dem leads at 7-8 or a bit lower and better quality polls, many of which (often but not always) had low-double digit leads for Dems.

It is true, there is not a huge basis for saying that Dems are now doing worse in live phone polls than before, but that is because we have so damned few recent live phone polls (and so many internet/robopolls). The way I look at the GCB, the vast majority of polls in it are methodologically questionable junky polls. So to me, the handful of higher quality live phone polls that we do have are relatively more important. And they are certainly more meaningful than the next Harris/Rassmusen/whatever GCB poll.

Also, I'm not gonna even get into the "CW" or Punditry this weekend or tomorrow about Dems being in Disarray because we all remember what happened in 2017. Most pundits were saying Northam was screwing up, that Gillepsie was "closing in" (the infamous Morning Joe clip), and then we saw what happened. Not saying that will happen again here, but we've seen all cycle that with this president, the people left over / the "enthusiasm" gap favors the Dems. Which makes total sense because they are out of power and Trump has a 42% approval rating.

Sure. It may (or may not) be like VA Gov 2017.

And we've gotten only 3 over the past week, and they are 7, 8, and 9, which pretty much lines up with what we've been seeing all cycle.

[Antonio the Sixth]

NBC/WSJ Final poll is D+7

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/democrats-hold-7-point-edge-final-national-nbc-wsj-poll-n931001

Yeah, this is not good at all. I had hoped (not expected) that Dems maintain the higher leads they had previously been getting in the quality polls.

Dems are still favorites to take the House, but the chances are notably lower than they were a few days ago. The only argument that all is well is "maybe the undecideds will break Dem," "maybe the district polls will be more accurate," or "hopefully this is just the quality pollsters herding towards the cheap pollsters" etc. Indeed, maybe so. But also maybe not. This is not very persuasive or confidence inspiring.

I'm feeling significantly more like 2016 than I was yesterday, where Dems seem to have a lead and be likely to win, but where it is too close for comfort. That doesn't mean the outcome will be like 2016, but it also doesn't mean that it won't be like 2016.

In sum, not good. Not good at all.

[Ebsy]

The number of undecideds among independents straights credibility.