Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[cp]

Today there will be a bunch of polls released. It's already begun, and it is only 6 AM in Alberta

Leger:

NDP: 38
PC: 30
WRP: 24
ALP: 6
AP: 1
Oth: 1

Return On Insight:

NDP: 38
PC: 24
WRP: 21
ALP: 10
AP: 4


Looks like the PCs are moving into second place. This could be bad news for the NDP if soft Wildrose voters go PC at the last minute. I know some will tell us their 2nd vote would be for the NDP, but I think the 2nd vote of the soft WRP voters is more likely to be PC voters. More committed Wildrosers will say their 2nd preference would be NDP I think.

Wow. If the right-wingers weren't panicking before they probably will be now!

That said, I'm not convinced that tactical voting on the right will save the PCs this time. WRP supporters in particular, and their raison d'etre generally, is based on specifically rejecting the PCs brand of politics and their party. Not that it would be counted, but I'd wager a WRP voter's second option would be to stay home and not vote rather than vote PC.

[RogueBeaver]

I agree with Levant. Just hoping WR is OO.

[Hatman 🍁]

More committed Wildrosers will say their 2nd preference would be NDP I think.

a.k.a an Ezra Levant voter? https://mobile.twitter.com/ezralevant/status/593584755096100864

If the polls are wrong again and PCs win, would it be due to an over sampling of NDP voters or a last minute swing to PC?

Last minute swing. And I think it's coming, too.

[Krago]

If I plug in the regional breakdowns for the Leger poll into my spreadsheet, it comes up with:
PC 41, NDP 29, Wildrose 15, Liberal 2

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/alberta-politics/holds+clear+lead+among+decided+voters+poll/11016814/story.html

If I plug in the regional breakdowns for the Return on Insight poll into my spreadsheet, it comes up with:
NDP 53, PC 19, Wildrose 12, Liberal 3

http://www.cbc.ca/news/elections/alberta-votes/alberta-election-poll-shows-recipe-for-minority-ndp-government-1.3054823


Outside Calgary and Edmonton, are the Tories sitting at 22% or 35%?  God only knows and She's not saying.

[RogueBeaver]

Think HQ: 39/27/20.

[Hatman 🍁]

Think HQ has the NDP ahead in Calgary and in Northern Alberta and tied in the south (probably a massive lead in Lethbridge)

[Hatman 🍁]

Pantheon has a massive IVR poll. Here are some riding municipal numbers:



Unfortunately few details about totals. Just 8000 completes in total.

[Krago]

Pantheon has a massive IVR poll. Here are some riding municipal numbers:



Unfortunately few details about totals. Just 8000 completes in total.

Those numbers are from last weekend.

What we really want to see are the regional breakdowns from the EKOS poll, which is hidden behind the paywall on iPolitics!

What we really REALLY want to see is Forum to poll all 87 electoral divisions, like they did in Ontario.  Even if it is just a Forum poll.

[DL]

I've seen that Pantheon chart retweeted all week - not sure when the data collection was

[Hatman 🍁]

Pantheon has a massive IVR poll. Here are some riding municipal numbers:



Unfortunately few details about totals. Just 8000 completes in total.

Those numbers are from last weekend.

What we really want to see are the regional breakdowns from the EKOS poll, which is hidden behind the paywall on iPolitics!

What we really REALLY want to see is Forum to poll all 87 electoral divisions, like they did in Ontario.  Even if it is just a Forum poll.

Our regional numbers aren't up on ipolitics. I'm hoping we'll put them up on our site this evening, as I went out of my way to code the cases into them.  

[Krago]

Here's where the Pantheon numbers originated:  https://twitter.com/JBumstead87

Hatman, you are a Wonderful Human Being™.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Now for an Ipsos floating around: 37-26-24-9

Predictable details under the surface. NDP sky-high in Edmonton, and it's a complete tossup damn near everywhere else.

[Lief 🗽]

If those 10% of remaining Liberals would just do what's good for them and vote NDP, that would be fantastic.

[Hatman 🍁]

Surprised Ipsos' numbers don't show a PC majority!

As for the Libs polling at 10%, half their voters don't even realize they don't even have a Liberal candidate!

[Hatman 🍁]

Yay, we have (my) regional numbers!

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_alberta_april_30_2015.pdf

[RogueBeaver]

Gerson's take. PC Inc. in its entirety is the problem, and like other institutional, oligarchic dynasties (LPC '57, say) they can't comprehend or deal with it.

[Boston Bread]

Good god, the final ekos poll has a bigger ndp lead than the original. 42 NDP, 23 PC, 21 Wildrose, 6 Liberal

[lilTommy]

... former PC Premier Ralph Klein's daughter endorses the Notley's NDP

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lBvHLKiOevM

this looks very amateurish, and probably doesn't matter much and at this point it doesn't surprise me anymore but wow eh

[toaster]

Yay, we have (my) regional numbers!

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_alberta_april_30_2015.pdf

That breakdown really makes me believe it is much more a populist labour-left than progressive -left that is forming in the province.  Either way, it's looking good!

[King of Kensington]

Obviously there's a fair margin of error when looking demographically, but I'm a bit surprised to see there's almost no difference between PC voters and Wildrose voters in educational attainment.

[RogueBeaver]

From THQ: more Albertans find a dynastic victory scary than a WR or NDP one.

[ilikeverin]

How worried are we that we'll see another 2012-like poll fail?  (I mean, obvs, with Earl on the case, much less worried than normal, but still.)

[Hatman 🍁]

Again, it wasn't so much a poll fail as it was a huge last minute shift in voting intentions. Such a possibility could happen again, of course.

[DC Al Fine]

I'm disappointed that the NDP lead keeps growing. I was hoping that the three major parties would all get around 30% and make the FPTP results a complete cluster[inks]

[Krago]

Mainstreet Poll:

Alberta
44% NDP
26% Wildrose
21% PC
5% Liberal
3% Alberta Party


Calgary
35% NDP
26% Wildrose
24% PC
10% Liberal
5% Alberta Party

Edmonton
73% NDP
16% PC
7% Wildrose
3% Liberal
1% Alberta Party

Rest of Alberta
39% NDP
33% Wildrose
22% PC
4% Liberal
3% Alberta Party