LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[JacobNC]

Not that I agree with McIntyre on this, but it probably plays well in the district:

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I think Mike McIntyre is the last true Dixiecrat/boll-weevil whatever you want to call it.  I think the other Blue Dogs, Matheson and Barrow, are more moderate at heart but vote conservative because of their districts.  Even they have been more liberal on social issues than most Republicans.  McIntyre is a conservative at heart, though.  If it weren't for the fact that Hoyer/Pelosi have promised him the Agriculture chairmanship and he'd get destroyed in a Republican primary I don't know that he'd have an interest in being in Democratic party politics.

[Morning in Atlas]

Not that I agree with McIntyre on this, but it probably plays well in the district:

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I think Mike McIntyre is the last true Dixiecrat/boll-weevil whatever you want to call it.  I think the other Blue Dogs, Matheson and Barrow, are more moderate at heart but vote conservative because of their districts.  Even they have been more liberal on social issues than most Republicans.  McIntyre is a conservative at heart, though.  If it weren't for the fact that Hoyer/Pelosi have promised him the Agriculture chairmanship and he'd get destroyed in a Republican primary I don't know that he'd have an interest in being in Democratic party politics.

Jim Cooper says hello. I'm guessing he's only a Democrat because of the 150 years of Democrats that represented his district before him.

[Miles]

I'll surely be praying for this to happen when I'm at church tonight:

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[RogueBeaver]

I don't think so. His eyes are on something bigger than a Senate seat.

[publicunofficial]

Jindal is massively unpopular, and Landrieu the opposite. If he gets creamed in a Senate race in Dark-Red Louisiana, he can kiss any sort of relevance goodbye.

What he could do, if he wanted a Senate seat, is to take Vitter's when he likely runs for Governor.

[RogueBeaver]

Landrieu said on Twitter that she'd hoped Obama would've explicitly approved Keystone today, "to create jobs here at home." Hear hear.

[Miles]

Landrieu said on Twitter that she'd hoped Obama would've explicitly approved Keystone today, "to create jobs here at home." Hear hear.

Not really surprising.

The candidates seem united on this:

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[Miles]

Since CD7 will be the only really competitive district in NC, I crunched the numbers from last year's races.

The current district:



The old district, just for the sake of comparison:



Looking at the non-Presidential races, the Democratic average slid from 50.4% (old) to 43.7% (new).
  
No Democrat would have carried the current district; the closest, Atkinson, only got 48%, with Marshall next at 47.4%.

The old map, by contrast, was very swingy; except for Coleman, it went with the winner in every race.

[Mr.Phips]

Since CD7 will be the only really competitive district in NC, I crunched the numbers from last year's races.

The current district:



The old district, just for the sake of comparison:



Looking at the non-Presidential races, the Democratic average slid from 50.4% (old) to 43.7% (new).
  
No Democrat would have carried the current district; the closest, Atkinson, only got 48%, with Marshall next at 47.4%.

The old map, by contrast, was very swingy; except for Coleman, it went with the winner in every race.

What Republicans did to this district was absolutely disgusting and completely without precedent.  Moving exurban Johnson county into this district and taking the Lumbee's out(they have been in this district since the dawn of time) is makes absolutely no sense.  This district and the removing Asheville from the 11th were probably the two redistricting moves that angered me the most not just in this cycle, but probably in the history of Congressional districts.

[Miles]

To get the Lumbee out of the southeastern district, you'd have to go back to 1882:



I can't find a historical map where Asheville isn't in the westernmost district.

[windjammer]

https://www.facebook.com/LouisianaSenateVet?fref=ts

Rob Maness has 15000 likes and seems to be supported by the Tea  Party. I think he risks to hurt Cassidy.

[RogueBeaver]

Cassidy will certainly need conservative enthusiasm if he wants to beat Landrieu. Things would get even more interesting in a runoff.

[RogueBeaver]

Ellmers is pushing back her decision timetable by 2 weeks, but knows how she's leaning and hints she'd support Cain if she doesn't run. Since she's probably not running, guess she's backing Cain.

[JacobNC]

To get the Lumbee out of the southeastern district, you'd have to go back to 1882:



I can't find a historical map where Asheville isn't in the westernmost district.

^ I could be wrong but I didn't even think Asheville was incorporated until the early 1900s.

An interesting map to see would be how the 2012 races played out in the 7th district that was drawn over to Carteret County in Rucho's first map last year.  Obviously, with Jones skewing the vote in Carteret and Onslow Counties, we wouldn't be able to get an accurate measure on how McIntyre would have done.  Also he would have likely faced Pantano, who may have done slightly better around Wilmington than Rouzer did.

[Miles]

To get the Lumbee out of the southeastern district, you'd have to go back to 1882:



I can't find a historical map where Asheville isn't in the westernmost district.

^ I could be wrong but I didn't even think Asheville was incorporated until the early 1900s.

An interesting map to see would be how the 2012 races played out in the 7th district that was drawn over to Carteret County in Rucho's first map last year.  Obviously, with Jones skewing the vote in Carteret and Onslow Counties, we wouldn't be able to get an accurate measure on how McIntyre would have done.  Also he would have likely faced Pantano, who may have done slightly better around Wilmington than Rouzer did.

I think McIntyre would have won relatively comfortably in the original district. Both Perdue and Hagan would have carried it in 2008.

McIntyre has a great record on military issues and is the third highest Democrat on Armed Services, so I think he would have done well in Onslow County.

[Mr.Phips]

To get the Lumbee out of the southeastern district, you'd have to go back to 1882:



I can't find a historical map where Asheville isn't in the westernmost district.

^ I could be wrong but I didn't even think Asheville was incorporated until the early 1900s.

An interesting map to see would be how the 2012 races played out in the 7th district that was drawn over to Carteret County in Rucho's first map last year.  Obviously, with Jones skewing the vote in Carteret and Onslow Counties, we wouldn't be able to get an accurate measure on how McIntyre would have done.  Also he would have likely faced Pantano, who may have done slightly better around Wilmington than Rouzer did.

I think McIntyre would have won relatively comfortably in the original district. Both Perdue and Hagan would have carried it in 2008.

McIntyre has a great record on military issues and is the third highest Democrat on Armed Services, so I think he would have done well in Onslow County.

I thin the same thing.  Cateret and Onslow are far more swing able for Dems than exurban Johnston county.

[JacobNC]

McIntyre has a great record on military issues and is the third highest Democrat on Armed Services, so I think he would have done well in Onslow County.

But you have to consider McIntyre's likely opponent, Pantano, was a marine at Lejeune, I think.  But the fact that the map didn't split New Hanover would have been in McIntyre's favor, as he likely would have won about 60% of the vote in that county.

I thin the same thing.  Cateret and Onslow are far more swing able for Dems than exurban Johnston county.

I don't know about that.  A lot of the downballot Democratic candidates last year like Marshall, Wood, Cowell only lost Johnston by single digits while losing Carteret by thirty points.

[Mr.Phips]

McIntyre has a great record on military issues and is the third highest Democrat on Armed Services, so I think he would have done well in Onslow County.

But you have to consider McIntyre's likely opponent, Pantano, was a marine at Lejeune, I think.  But the fact that the map didn't split New Hanover would have been in McIntyre's favor, as he likely would have won about 60% of the vote in that county.

I thin the same thing.  Cateret and Onslow are far more swing able for Dems than exurban Johnston county.

I don't know about that.  A lot of the downballot Democratic candidates last year like Marshall, Wood, Cowell only lost Johnston by single digits while losing Carteret by thirty points.

Interesting.  I've always thought Johnston was an exurban Raleigh area that wouldn't vote Dem no matter what.

[Mr.Phips]

Since CD7 will be the only really competitive district in NC, I crunched the numbers from last year's races.

The current district:



The old district, just for the sake of comparison:



Looking at the non-Presidential races, the Democratic average slid from 50.4% (old) to 43.7% (new).
  
No Democrat would have carried the current district; the closest, Atkinson, only got 48%, with Marshall next at 47.4%.

The old map, by contrast, was very swingy; except for Coleman, it went with the winner in every race.

What Republicans did to this district was absolutely disgusting and completely without precedent.  Moving exurban Johnson county into this district and taking the Lumbee's out(they have been in this district since the dawn of time) is makes absolutely no sense.  This district and the removing Asheville from the 11th were probably the two redistricting moves that angered me the most not just in this cycle, but probably in the history of Congressional districts.

I'm pretty sure that Kankakee County and Chicago have never shared a congressional district.

The shrinkage/stagnation of Chicago's population was going to make that a neccessity sooner or later.  Johnston county is growing in population, as is Wilmington.

[Miles]

I'm pretty sure that Kankakee County and Chicago have never shared a congressional district.

I don't remember titling the thread "LA , NC and IL Congressional Races."

[JacobNC]

McIntyre has a great record on military issues and is the third highest Democrat on Armed Services, so I think he would have done well in Onslow County.

But you have to consider McIntyre's likely opponent, Pantano, was a marine at Lejeune, I think.  But the fact that the map didn't split New Hanover would have been in McIntyre's favor, as he likely would have won about 60% of the vote in that county.

I thin the same thing.  Cateret and Onslow are far more swing able for Dems than exurban Johnston county.

I don't know about that.  A lot of the downballot Democratic candidates last year like Marshall, Wood, Cowell only lost Johnston by single digits while losing Carteret by thirty points.

Interesting.  I've always thought Johnston was an exurban Raleigh area that wouldn't vote Dem no matter what.

Raleigh suburbs have been creeping into Johnston County in the last decade or so but there are still a lot of so-called "Jesse Helms Democrats" in Johnston.

[Miles]

I'm pretty sure that Kankakee County and Chicago have never shared a congressional district.

I don't remember titling the thread "LA , NC and IL Congressional Races."

Well, no, but along the topic of the prior discussion, I am curious as to what Will County (population 300k) did to be loathed by Illinois liberals. Will County was broken into 6 congressional districts.

Its best to stay germane to NC and LA; there aren't many white Illinois liberals in those states.

[Mr.Phips]

I'm pretty sure that Kankakee County and Chicago have never shared a congressional district.

I don't remember titling the thread "LA , NC and IL Congressional Races."

Well, no, but along the topic of the prior discussion, I am curious as to what Will County (population 300k) did to be loathed by Illinois liberals. Will County was broken into 6 congressional districts.

I can't remember that last time that Will county was just in one Congressional district.

[Miles]

This lines up more with my thinking than the previous article I posted:

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I suppose he'll have to find some other way to stay relevant after 2015.

[Miles]

Oh look, a spot on Roll Call about the NC race:

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