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| | |-+  Official Iowa Caucus Results Thread
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Author Topic: Official Iowa Caucus Results Thread  (Read 16681 times)
Badger
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« Reply #375 on: January 03, 2012, 10:34:51 pm »
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The Republicans have to go dump some Paul votes into the Mississippi before they announce the other 50% of the precincts.

And so it begins....

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« Reply #376 on: January 03, 2012, 10:35:02 pm »
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Oh, Mitt got 33% in Catholic Dubuque. Rick got 26%. So Mitt is running strong in Catholic areas too.

Mitt is actually severely underperforming in Catholic areas compared to 2008.

He has a Catholic evangelical as his main rival, which he didn't have last time.
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« Reply #377 on: January 03, 2012, 10:36:01 pm »
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Given what's out, I'd be a little surprised if Santorum's not the winner, whatever winner means in this race.
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« Reply #378 on: January 03, 2012, 10:36:15 pm »
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Google has Santorum 24%, Romney 23%, Paul 22%.
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Reading the 3012 boards dulls one's sense of irony.

Seriously. How many times can we read about the Obamachine 3000 pulling ahead of the Reagantronix QLZ in the race for Mars Mutant Colony's 48 electoral votes? Sheesh!
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« Reply #379 on: January 03, 2012, 10:36:37 pm »
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The Republicans have to go dump some Paul votes into the Mississippi before they announce the other 50% of the precincts.

Sadly, this is entirely possible.
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« Reply #380 on: January 03, 2012, 10:37:27 pm »
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Oh, Mitt got 33% in Catholic Dubuque. Rick got 26%. So Mitt is running strong in Catholic areas too.

He was running stronger in that part of the state last time around.
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« Reply #381 on: January 03, 2012, 10:37:46 pm »
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54% in. Santorum 24. Romney 24. Paul 22
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« Reply #382 on: January 03, 2012, 10:37:59 pm »
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Nearly a three-way tie.

All in all, the ultimate winner is someone not running in the Republican caucus.
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« Reply #383 on: January 03, 2012, 10:38:31 pm »
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Romney's base areas are played out for the most part, outside of Sioux City.
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« Reply #384 on: January 03, 2012, 10:38:56 pm »
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Any guess when a call will be made?
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« Reply #385 on: January 03, 2012, 10:39:07 pm »
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Nearly a three-way tie.

All in all, the ultimate winner is someone not running in the Republican caucus.

Please keep your useless drivel to the approval ratings thread, thank you.
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« Reply #386 on: January 03, 2012, 10:39:34 pm »
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Google has Santorum 24%, Romney 23%, Paul 22%.

In b4 Santorum Google jokes.
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« Reply #387 on: January 03, 2012, 10:40:10 pm »
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Santorum now up on Romney by almost 600 votes and almost a whole percentage point - 24.4% to 23.5%.
« Last Edit: January 03, 2012, 10:42:38 pm by Reginald »Logged

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« Reply #388 on: January 03, 2012, 10:41:25 pm »
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http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/ia


48% of 17-29 vote for Paul !



women, big income and old peoples, as usual, vote in mainstream... : romney
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« Reply #389 on: January 03, 2012, 10:41:59 pm »
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Carl Rove just pointed out what may put Mitt in first, although I think it is an uphill battle. Des Moines is only 33% in, and the late precincts are probably big, and middle class, with a couple upper middle class. So if Mitt gets a big lead in a few big Des Moines precincts, that plus what is out in Dubuque, may be enough to offset whatever lead Rick gets in the 5 western counties that are still out, which Mitt carried last time, but he was positioned a bit differently last time. Mitt is trashing Rick in Johnson County (U of Iowa), with Paul coming in first of course, and a fair amount of it is out too I see.
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« Reply #390 on: January 03, 2012, 10:42:07 pm »
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Any guess when a call will be made?

I'm guessing around 12:00 am Eastern, 11:00 pm Central.  We're starting to pick up the pace a bit, we're approaching two-thirds.
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« Reply #391 on: January 03, 2012, 10:42:13 pm »
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24-24-22
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« Reply #392 on: January 03, 2012, 10:42:38 pm »
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Tomorrow's headline.

"Santorum comes from behind in Iowa"
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« Reply #393 on: January 03, 2012, 10:42:58 pm »
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One thing is for sure.... Rick Santorum will run for President in 2016
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« Reply #394 on: January 03, 2012, 10:43:02 pm »
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I would be fine with Santorum winning - Romney's only threat in New Hampshire is Paul, and a third place showing here will likely keep him from getting the momentum he needs for New Hampshire. Santorum will be able to compete in South Carolina and Florida, but probably doesn't have the organization and money needed to win both of them, especially considering that Gingrich will be going all out in South Carolina, as will Perry.

If you had told me a month ago Romney would be taking a close second in Iowa, I would be giddy.
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« Reply #395 on: January 03, 2012, 10:43:31 pm »
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Although Ron Paul has fallen slightly behind Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney in the vote-counting, he still has a chance of winning - in part because some of his strongest areas, college towns, have been slow to report results.

Story County, where Iowa State University is located, has had none of its 43 precincts report. And only 22 of 57 precincts have reported in Johnson County, home to the University of Iowa. (Mr. Paul has 36 percent of the votes there so far.)

- Nate Silver

Johnson County's now 91% in.  Romney is winning it by about 5 points.  Unless one or more of the Johnson County precincts is on the Iowa campus, Paul's hopes hinge on Story and the city of Des Moines.

We really need to see some of Woodbury before projecting anything.   If it goes Romney like in 2008, he could win.  If it goes Santorum, Romney probably ends up in second.
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« Reply #396 on: January 03, 2012, 10:43:37 pm »
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Any guess when a call will be made?

At least an hour.  And this one is very hard to project, particularly since the turnout in precincts varies so much, and who turns out, and media markets and so forth.
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« Reply #397 on: January 03, 2012, 10:44:02 pm »
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59% in. 4antorum 24. Romney 24. Paul 22
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Jackson
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« Reply #398 on: January 03, 2012, 10:44:12 pm »
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Google Romney-25% Santorum-24% Paul-22%

What!
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« Reply #399 on: January 03, 2012, 10:44:26 pm »
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I'm anxious to see what the western tier counties along the Nebraska border will look like (Sioux City and points north and south).  Those 4 counties that are not reporting, yet, were solidly Romney 4 years ago.  Also, looks like Santorum's strength is in the rural farmland north and west of Des Moines and east of the aforementioned western tier.
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My earlier comment notwithstanding, I do think that the site would be better off if Inks left his position. (The fact that the village idiot has dropped in to express his support for him only confirms this.)
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