Presidential Ratings and Predictions - New Mexico
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  Presidential Ratings and Predictions - New Mexico		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Rate New Mexico and Predict Who Will Win
#1
Safe D		  
#2
Likely D		  
#3
Lean D		  
#4
Toss-Up		  
#5
Lean R		  
#6
Likely R		  
#7
Safe R		  
#8
Clinton		  
#9
Trump		  
#10
Other		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 112

Calculate results by number of options selected
Author Topic: Presidential Ratings and Predictions - New Mexico  (Read 2576 times)
ElectionsGuy
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« on: September 16, 2016, 09:07:01 AM »
Two votes. One for a rating (Safe D, Lean R, Toss-Up, etc.) and one for a prediction of who will win (Clinton, Trump, or Other).

Note: If you think Johnson/Other will win a state, just vote 'Other' and don't vote for a rating.

Update/vote in these threads if you haven't already! There's no time limit and you can still affect the overall result:

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine ME-01 ME-02 Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska NE-01 NE-02 NE-03 Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey

Ratings



Colorado: Likely D --> Undecided --> Likely D
Florida: Lean D --> Undecided --> Toss-Up

Safe Clinton: 140
Likely Clinton: 29
Lean Clinton: 7
Toss-Up: 47
Lean Trump: 26
Likely Trump: 18
Safe Trump: 50

Clinton: 176
Trump: 94
Toss-Up: 47

Predictions



Clinton: 212
Trump: 105

New Mexico: Safe D, 52-38 Clinton.

I'm going to refrain from making some ratings changes until well after the first debate, as that could make a big difference in this period of Trump gaining. Also Arizona is Toss-Up by just one vote now.
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Dr. Arch
Arch
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« Reply #1 on: September 16, 2016, 09:07:53 AM »
Safe D.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #2 on: September 16, 2016, 09:08:51 AM »
« Edited: September 16, 2016, 09:11:24 AM by TN volunteer »
Likely D. Clinton wins by 7-8 points, Johnson in double digits.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: September 16, 2016, 09:20:47 AM »
Safe D. It's a bad bellweather because it has correctly predicted popular vote winner even in disputed 2000 election when Gore won popular vote
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Figueira
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« Reply #4 on: September 16, 2016, 09:21:23 AM »
Safe D, although I was tempted to vote likely. I don't know who Johnson helps here, though.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #5 on: September 16, 2016, 11:30:11 AM »
Safe D.

My prediction:

✓ Clinton: 50.7%
Trump: 42.4%
Johnson: 5.3%
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #6 on: September 16, 2016, 12:02:23 PM »
Come on, folks. Trump isn't winning the state with the highest percentage of Latinos, which went for Obama by double digits both times. Why assume that Johnson will only take votes from Hillary in this state?

Safe D, Hillary wins 53-39.
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Coolface Sock #42069
whitesox130
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« Reply #7 on: September 16, 2016, 12:27:26 PM »
Likely D. Johnson's best state unless he somehow pulls out Utah.
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tinman64
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« Reply #8 on: September 16, 2016, 12:49:10 PM »
Quote from: TN volunteer on September 16, 2016, 09:08:51 AM
Likely D. Clinton wins by 7-8 points, Johnson in double digits.

This.
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evergreenarbor
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« Reply #9 on: September 16, 2016, 01:00:08 PM »
Safe D.

Clinton: 50%
Trump: 36%
Johnson: 13%
Other: 1%
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An American Tail: Fubart Goes West
Fubart Solman
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« Reply #10 on: September 16, 2016, 01:04:58 PM »

I'll say that Johnson will be in the high teens. The Clinton-Trump margin sounds about right.
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Chunk Yogurt for President!
CELTICEMPIRE
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« Reply #11 on: September 16, 2016, 04:52:35 PM »
Quote from: xīngkěruì on September 16, 2016, 12:02:23 PM
Come on, folks. Trump isn't winning the state with the highest percentage of Latinos, which went for Obama by double digits both times. Why assume that Johnson will only take votes from Hillary in this state?

Safe D, Hillary wins 53-39.

Yeah, Trump is the worst Republican for New Mexico to be sure.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #12 on: September 16, 2016, 04:53:43 PM »
« Edited: September 16, 2016, 05:06:14 PM by Ronnie »
Clinton 53%
Trump 38%
Johnson 8%
Other 1%

Super safe titanium D.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #13 on: September 16, 2016, 05:09:03 PM »
Quote from: Ronnie on September 16, 2016, 04:53:43 PM
Clinton 53%
Trump 38%
Johnson 8%
Other 1%

Super safe titanium D.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
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« Reply #14 on: September 16, 2016, 05:11:13 PM »
Likely D. Never saw Trump doing good here

Clinton: 52%
Trump: 40%
Johnson: 8%
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #15 on: September 17, 2016, 12:17:00 PM »
Bumping for more votes.
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Suburbia
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« Reply #16 on: September 17, 2016, 12:35:08 PM »
Likely D.


Clinton 53%
Trump 40%
Johnson 13%
Stein 4%
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Ronnie
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« Reply #17 on: September 17, 2016, 05:18:05 PM »

This isn't the year 2004, and Trump is perhaps the most hostile candidate to Latinos that a major party has ever nominated.
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Breton Racer
Harrytruman48
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« Reply #18 on: September 18, 2016, 04:41:06 PM »
Safe D
Clinton wins 50%-34%-15%
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Enduro
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« Reply #19 on: September 18, 2016, 04:44:37 PM »

I do see Johnson getting a few more points than that, but I agree.
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Senator-elect Spark
Spark498
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« Reply #20 on: September 24, 2016, 05:03:09 PM »
Likely D.

Clinton 51%
Trump 41%
Johnson 10%
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President Johnson
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« Reply #21 on: September 25, 2016, 05:17:19 AM »
Likely Democratic.

Clinton: 48%
Trump: 41%
Johnson: 9%


Quote from: Titanium D NH on September 24, 2016, 05:03:09 PM
Likely D.

Clinton 51%
Trump 41%
Johnson 10%

That's 102% in addition Wink
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AGA
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« Reply #22 on: September 25, 2016, 02:56:49 PM »
Quote from: President Johnson on September 25, 2016, 05:17:19 AM
Likely Democratic.

Clinton: 48%
Trump: 41%
Johnson: 9%


Quote from: Titanium D NH on September 24, 2016, 05:03:09 PM
Likely D.

Clinton 51%
Trump 41%
Johnson 10%

That's 102% in addition Wink

I guess that New Mexico is now allowing people to cast multiple votes.
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #23 on: September 25, 2016, 05:23:26 PM »
Safe D, Clinton 51-38
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Averroës Nix
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« Reply #24 on: September 25, 2016, 06:00:49 PM »

Jesus f-cking Christ, this garbage again? Do you think that anyone wants to read this?
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