Canada 2008: Official Thread

[Smid]

Can somebody give a link?

CPAC had the French debate up, and I assume they'll put the English debate up in their Videos on Demand at some point. Check them out.

Fun night watching the debates. I didn't really hear much of it, as it was too noisy in there. Jack stopped by afterwards, and I got to shake his hand (twice!). He said to me "thank you for being here!". Afterwards, I biked home, and I noticed down the street the Greens were having there debate party, and I saw Elizabeth May. I promptly booed her and kept biking. lol

As I mentioned on your facebook page - nice work on that!

[Hatman 🍁]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/

look on the right side of the page

[Verily]

I'll watch the debate when I have time, maybe tonight. From what I'm hearing, May and Layton were the stars; I would put May ahead of Layton just due to expectations. Duceppe did very well for an English debate, but he's irrelevant in English. Harper held up better than in the French debate, and Dion did poorly.

May
Layton
[Duceppe]
Harper
Dion

[Hatman 🍁]

Layton was better than May, but she did alright.

[Hash]

I heard from some that Dion actually defied expectations and got points across. I personally wouldn't put him in last.

Layton and May were clearly on top, from what I've heard.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I heard from some that Dion actually defied expectations and got points across. I personally wouldn't put him in last.

Mind you, expections for Dion were probably so low that..

[Hash]

I heard from some that Dion actually defied expectations and got points across. I personally wouldn't put him in last.

Mind you, expections for Dion were probably so low that..

True that.

[cp]

I heard from some that Dion actually defied expectations and got points across. I personally wouldn't put him in last.

Layton and May were clearly on top, from what I've heard.

Hardly, Layton came off as peevish and frenetic. He kept flailing off in all directions without really landing any good points (his mention of aboriginal issues notwithstanding, of course).

May was a disappointment for me, but I think she came across well. I was really hoping she'd knock Harper completely off his balance by calling him out on his record. She did call him out, but not forcefully enough to crack that lithium-soaked smile of his.

Dion was better than expected and better than he was in all the Liberal leadership debates from 2006. Thankfully Layton didn't turn his attention to Dion until the end of the debate so he didn't get very far with his criticisms.

[Bacon King]

Ten minutes into the debate right now. Layton and May are both doing really well; Duceppe is also making some good points but I guess that's kind of irrelevant.

[Hash]

http://www.votejoel.ca/

lololol

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[MaxQue]

I don't know what is the more lol, Democratic Space, who is usually better than that, or Joel Bernard. By the way the campaign of Mark Canada, the liberal candidate in my riding, Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou, has take a blow. He has a criminal record because he stroke two teens who stealed him an easel.

Nanos Canada

CPC: 35 (-2)
LPC: 30 (+4)
NDP: 18 (-1)
BQ: 10 (0)
GPC: 9 (+1)

Nanos Quebec

BQ: 39 (-3)
LPC: 24 (+7)
CPC: 20 (-4)
NDP: 11 (-1)
GPC: 7 (+2)

EKOS Canada

CPC: 36 (+2)
LPC: 24 (-1)
NDP: 19 (0)
GPC: 11 (0)
BQ: 10 (0)

EKOS Quebec

BQ: 40 (0)
CPC: 20 (-1)
LPC: 20 (+1)
NDP: 12 (-1)
GPC: 7 (-1)

Harris-Decima Canada

CPC: 37 (+1)
LPC: 22 (-1)
NDP: 18 (0)
GPC: 12 (0)
BQ: 9 (0)

Harris-Decima Quebec

BQ: 38 (+1)
CPC: 27 (0)
LPC: 17 (0)
NDP: 11 (0)
GPC: 5 (-1)

I have big doubts on Nanos.

[Hash]

Nanos had the best track record in 2006 though, predicting spot on a Con +6 victory. We'll see.

Personally, most of my doubts are on Harris-Decima lately. Both nationally and in Quebec.

[Hash]

Snapshot of my poll tracking.

[Hash]

Nanos nugget: Dion has had an overnight surge on their leadership index.

From 31 yesterday, he's up to 71. Harper is at 79 (95 yesterday), Layton at 48 (60 yesterday), May at 15 (18), Duceppe at 11 (14).

Dion surges most on Competence, from 9 to 26. Improves from 11 to 24 in Vision for Canada, and from 11 to 21 in Trust.

But no surge on Best PM.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah, the "he can speak English!" bump

[Verily]

Nanos had the best track record in 2006 though, predicting spot on a Con +6 victory. We'll see.

Personally, most of my doubts are on Harris-Decima lately. Both nationally and in Quebec.

For a while, Nanos was overstating the Liberals and understating the Greens compared to everyone else, which I figured was the result of a weight against Green switchers. But now they've got the Greens close to where everyone else has them, yet still have the Liberals much higher than the other two. I'm not sure where the Liberal numbers are coming from.

[Hash]

Nanos had the best track record in 2006 though, predicting spot on a Con +6 victory. We'll see.

Personally, most of my doubts are on Harris-Decima lately. Both nationally and in Quebec.

For a while, Nanos was overstating the Liberals and understating the Greens compared to everyone else, which I figured was the result of a weight against Green switchers. But now they've got the Greens close to where everyone else has them, yet still have the Liberals much higher than the other two. I'm not sure where the Liberal numbers are coming from.

Harris-Decima also has oddities. In the past week or so, they have the Tories much stronger in Quebec than the other pollsters have (27% today, over 20% by both EKOS and Nanos). Harris-Decima is also seeing the Greenies at 16-17 in Ontario, tied with NDP. Overall, the Liberals are much weaker with Harris.

[Hatman 🍁]

I heard from some that Dion actually defied expectations and got points across. I personally wouldn't put him in last.

Layton and May were clearly on top, from what I've heard.

Hardly, Layton came off as peevish and frenetic. He kept flailing off in all directions without really landing any good points (his mention of aboriginal issues notwithstanding, of course).

May was a disappointment for me, but I think she came across well. I was really hoping she'd knock Harper completely off his balance by calling him out on his record. She did call him out, but not forcefully enough to crack that lithium-soaked smile of his.

Dion was better than expected and better than he was in all the Liberal leadership debates from 2006. Thankfully Layton didn't turn his attention to Dion until the end of the debate so he didn't get very far with his criticisms.

Wow, can you be any more of an anti-NDP hack? I mean, the media was all over Layton's performance. And as much as I hate the Green Party, I'll give credit where it is due and say May did a good job.

[Hatman 🍁]

It'll be interesting to see how the debate affects the polls. Hopefuly it will give Layton a bump.

[cinyc]

Ah, the "he can speak English!" bump

In the English language debate, Stephane Dion pretty much proved his English is worse than Gilles Duceppe's.   Granted, Canadians are more used to hearing French-accented English than Americans like me, but Dion was extremely difficult to follow at times.  I can't imagine the debate helped him much - he was ranked fourth in Ipsos-Reid's poll on who won the debate.  (Harper came in first, followed by Layton and May).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah, the "he can speak English!" bump

In the English language debate, Stephane Dion pretty much proved his English is worse than Gilles Duceppe's. 

Yes, but everyone knew that anyway.

[minionofmidas]

Ah, the "he can speak English!" bump

In the English language debate, Stephane Dion pretty much proved his English is worse than Gilles Duceppe's.

Yes, but everyone knew that anyway.

Lowered Expectations, is it?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah, the "he can speak English!" bump

In the English language debate, Stephane Dion pretty much proved his English is worse than Gilles Duceppe's.

Yes, but everyone knew that anyway.

Lowered Expectations, is it?

Guess so, yeah. Though it's a double standard, isn't it. Most Anglophone Canadians speak worse French than Dion does English.

[Hash]

Ipsos-Reid sez

Con 37
Lib 23
NDP 19
Bloc 11
Greenies 10

Quebec results are disastrous for the Tories, but worth to be taken with a grain of salt (small sample)
Bloc 40
Lib 24
Con 18
NDP 11
Greenies 6

Though the Ontario results destroy their credibility.

Con 40
Lib 26
NDP 21
Greenies 13

Do note that in 2006, they had C +11 in their last poll, and the final result was C +6.

[Hatman 🍁]

I must admit, there were times that I could not understand Dion, and his lack of ability in the language made him fumble in the debates, like when Layton attacked him on being a lousy opposition leader (total ownage by the way). Dion couldn't come back with anything snappy. It was very Turneresque of him.

These are the only highlights of the debate you need to see: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ny8Z5DC4UIY