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| | |-+  Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See
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Author Topic: Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See  (Read 325734 times)
CultureKing
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« Reply #150 on: August 16, 2008, 06:26:49 pm »
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I just want to puke every time I see an ad for the scumbag. He really is disgusting.

Agreed, there is just something not right about Rossi...

Turnout in King County isn't going well. Not good news for the Governor.

Turnout is down here in Thurston as well but after phone banking for about 6 hours and going door-to-door today I am finding that people just prefer to wait until a little bit closer to election day (most of them had sent their ballots out either yesterday or even today).
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CultureKing
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« Reply #151 on: August 16, 2008, 06:38:22 pm »
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So, anyone want to give a prediction of how Cheryl Crist will do against Brian Baird in the primary? She is running as an anti-war democrat against Baird (remember Baird recently came out for the war, after opposing it from the start, the only congressman or even elected official I know to have done so).

My guess (based on absolutely nothing):
Baird: 55%
Delevar: 22%
Crist: 12%
Webb: 11%

Watch as this prediction becomes a laughing stock in only four days time. By the way I know nothing about the republicans, except that they will easily lose to Baird.
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Meeker
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« Reply #152 on: August 16, 2008, 09:51:03 pm »
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Turnout in King County isn't going well. Not good news for the Governor.

Turnout is down here in Thurston as well but after phone banking for about 6 hours and going door-to-door today I am finding that people just prefer to wait until a little bit closer to election day (most of them had sent their ballots out either yesterday or even today).

Most do vote later, but turnout is lower right now compared to this time in previous years.
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Alcon
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« Reply #153 on: August 17, 2008, 01:22:50 am »
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Pierce County turnout stands currently at 20%.  Returns are down 18% (not percentage points) from 2004, which is pretty sad-ish, considering that more people are vote-by-mail now.  That is, uselessly, up 2% from 2006.

King County is doing even worse, at 17%.  Pierce County typically has the state's lowest turnout.  This probably says more about KingCo having awful turnout than Pierce doing well.

Turnout elsewhere seems wildly variant:  27% in Benton, 19% in Clark, 37% (!) in Pacific, 17% in Snohomish, 24% in Spokane and 27% in Yakima.

Chelan County gives too much information (file), none of it what I wanted, but apparently only about 1-in-200 voters so far forgot to sign their ballots.
« Last Edit: August 17, 2008, 01:27:03 am by Alcon »Logged

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Meeker
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« Reply #154 on: August 17, 2008, 01:37:58 am »
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Some of the smaller counties, like Pacific, have such a small population that you can't really read too much into their turnout percentages, it's just sort of a year-by-year randomness.

King is the really worry though. This just confirms what those within the party have known for months though, which is that the Gregoire and coordinated campaigns are completely incompetent.
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CultureKing
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« Reply #155 on: August 17, 2008, 01:44:06 am »
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predicted turnout is 46%. I have a feeling that we will end up still being up from 2004 because of the popularity of the top-two primary. Just give people time.
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Meeker
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« Reply #156 on: August 17, 2008, 02:00:35 am »
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The current trend line is right below 2006 turnout (39%). I'm pretty sure Sam Reed was full of crap. We'll see
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« Reply #157 on: August 17, 2008, 02:19:48 am »
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Some of the smaller counties, like Pacific, have such a small population that you can't really read too much into their turnout percentages, it's just sort of a year-by-year randomness.

King is the really worry though. This just confirms what those within the party have known for months though, which is that the Gregoire and coordinated campaigns are completely incompetent.

Why does it matter? It's just the primary. Would a warning to the Gregoire campaign that they need to do a better job really be a bad thing?
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Meeker
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« Reply #158 on: August 17, 2008, 02:24:14 am »
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Some of the smaller counties, like Pacific, have such a small population that you can't really read too much into their turnout percentages, it's just sort of a year-by-year randomness.

King is the really worry though. This just confirms what those within the party have known for months though, which is that the Gregoire and coordinated campaigns are completely incompetent.

Why does it matter? It's just the primary. Would a warning to the Gregoire campaign that they need to do a better job really be a bad thing?

It gets the Republicans excited and helps Rossi bring in out-of-state money (and makes in-state donors focus on the race more).

On the other hand, you're certainly right, it would give the Gregoire campaign (and a lot of the lazy party activists) a needed wake-up call that we can't just waltz to victory.

So positives and negatives.
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bgwah
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« Reply #159 on: August 17, 2008, 02:28:26 am »
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It gets the Republicans excited and helps Rossi bring in out-of-state money (and makes in-state donors focus on the race more).

Maybe. Seems like the closeness from 2004 (not to mention the high name-recognition he already has from it) would already help Rossi out a lot in those areas--so much that I'm not sure there's much room for improvement. But I don't know...

Too bad this silly mail-voting will make it take forever (relatively speaking of course) to get results. Sad
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Meeker
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« Reply #160 on: August 17, 2008, 02:33:36 am »
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It gets the Republicans excited and helps Rossi bring in out-of-state money (and makes in-state donors focus on the race more).

Maybe. Seems like the closeness from 2004 (not to mention the high name-recognition he already has from it) would already help Rossi out a lot in those areas--so much that I'm not sure there's much room for improvement. But I don't know...

You're probably right to some extent, but as we saw in 2004 every little bit can make a big difference.
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« Reply #161 on: August 17, 2008, 03:38:28 am »
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I'm pretty sure Sam Reed was full of crap.

Heresy!  Sam Reed is full of only golden caramel and delicious milk chocolate.
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« Reply #162 on: August 17, 2008, 07:13:28 pm »
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It's too bad this has been taken over by partisans.

I just talked to one of the leaders of the state Democratic Party and the arguments they offer are just full of holes and completely nonsensical. The main argument is that we should be like the rest of the other states in the country and be "normal." The top-two primary according to the Democratic Party of WA will hurt third parties and lower voter turnout. How can this be true if voters chose to have a top-two primary? It really isn't confusing, but the parties make us think that it is. And this is an exciting chance for third parties to actually become part of the system. Take advantage of it Greens, Libertarians, and Constitutionalists! You guys actually have a chance now!
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« Reply #163 on: August 17, 2008, 10:05:59 pm »
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It's too bad this has been taken over by partisans.

I just talked to one of the leaders of the state Democratic Party and the arguments they offer are just full of holes and completely nonsensical. The main argument is that we should be like the rest of the other states in the country and be "normal." The top-two primary according to the Democratic Party of WA will hurt third parties and lower voter turnout. How can this be true if voters chose to have a top-two primary? It really isn't confusing, but the parties make us think that it is. And this is an exciting chance for third parties to actually become part of the system. Take advantage of it Greens, Libertarians, and Constitutionalists! You guys actually have a chance now!

     They can get 15% now! Nevertheless, I like this system. Be nice if we adopted this in California. Then we could have competitive elections in the Bay Area. Grin
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« Reply #164 on: August 17, 2008, 11:02:42 pm »
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How can this be true if voters chose to have a top-two primary?

Because voters are capable of making a decision that will decrease turnout? What you're saying isn't logical.

And this is an exciting chance for third parties to actually become part of the system. Take advantage of it Greens, Libertarians, and Constitutionalists! You guys actually have a chance now!

No, it excludes them nearly completely. A third party will never be on the November ballot for a statewide election until we get rid of this horrid system.
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« Reply #165 on: August 18, 2008, 01:37:06 am »
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The Top 2 Primary isn't perfect, but I resented the hell out of the "Pick A Party" primary.  If we go back to that system I will stop voting in the primary (except judicial races).  I really wish we could go back to the old blanket primary which unfortunately was declared unconstitutional.
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CultureKing
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« Reply #166 on: August 18, 2008, 02:29:57 am »
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The Top 2 Primary isn't perfect, but I resented the hell out of the "Pick A Party" primary.  If we go back to that system I will stop voting in the primary (except judicial races).  I really wish we could go back to the old blanket primary which unfortunately was declared unconstitutional.

Agreed, the blanket primary was best. But really I don't mind this primary system very much... its kind of like a dry run through for the races in November and in some cases when a party is split between a number of candidates it opens up the possibility for third parties.
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Meeker
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« Reply #167 on: August 18, 2008, 09:05:09 am »
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in some cases when a party is split between a number of candidates it opens up the possibility for third parties.

But excludes them 99% of the time...
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bgwah
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« Reply #168 on: August 18, 2008, 02:06:41 pm »
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So, how do you guys think Sam Reed will do in the general? I'm feeling fairly certain he'll hit 60%. 70% wouldn't really be out of the question, either.
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« Reply #169 on: August 18, 2008, 05:22:42 pm »
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in some cases when a party is split between a number of candidates it opens up the possibility for third parties.

But excludes them 99% of the time...

It won't be that way once people get accustomed to the top-two primary. This year will look bad, but once people start to understand that they really have a choice in the first round, I believe we will see much more third party growth (esp. if the two main parties become corrupt).
Eventually this will really help to decrease partisanship and polarization.
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CultureKing
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« Reply #170 on: August 18, 2008, 09:19:22 pm »
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So, how do you guys think Sam Reed will do in the general? I'm feeling fairly certain he'll hit 60%. 70% wouldn't really be out of the question, either.

I am guessing 70%+, perhaps even breaking 80%. I don't even know any democrats who voted against him, he really did do a good job in 2004 of remaining impartial.
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CultureKing
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« Reply #171 on: August 18, 2008, 09:25:02 pm »
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By the way LD 35 should be interesting tomarrow for state Rep. Fred Finn should advance, but I am not so sure about who else, I think there are two dems and one weak republican in the primary so it could be interesting (Daugs is interesting, he could either do quite well or fall flat on his face).
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Meeker
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« Reply #172 on: August 18, 2008, 10:39:57 pm »
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The SOS race will be interesting to see the absolute floor vote of a Democrat running statewide. I predicted Reed gets ~60-65%.

My highly scientific and wonderfully accurate predictions in a moment...
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« Reply #173 on: August 18, 2008, 10:41:28 pm »
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The SOS race will be interesting to see the absolute floor vote of a Democrat running statewide. I predicted Reed gets ~60-65%.

My highly scientific and wonderfully accurate predictions in a moment...

That is my prediction as well. 
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Meeker
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« Reply #174 on: August 18, 2008, 10:53:58 pm »
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Alrighty, here we go. A bolded name means they will be the top vote getter. Two names means those are the ones advancing to November.

US Congress, Dist. 1: Inslee
US Congress, Dist. 2: Larsen, Bart
US Congress, Dist. 3: Baird, Webb
US Congress, Dist. 4: Hastings, Fearing
US Congress, Dist. 5: McMorris, Mays
US Congress, Dist. 6: Dicks, Cloud
US Congress, Dist. 7: McDermott, Beren
US Congress, Dist. 8: Reichert, Burner
US Congress, Dist. 9: Smith

Governor: Gregoire, Rossi
Lt. Governor: Owen, McCraw
SOS: Reed, Osgood
State Treasurer: Martin, Sohn
State Auditor: Sonntag, McEntee
Attorney General: McKenna
CPL: Goldmark
SPI: Bergeson, Dorn
Insurance Commissioner: Kreidler, Adams
Supreme Court: Fairhurst, Johnson, Stephens

Legislative races later on tonight if I have time...
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