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  The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
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Author Topic: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread  (Read 40858 times)
cinyc
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« Reply #525 on: November 06, 2013, 03:06:55 pm »

Anyone have final Nassau County (NY) results including the County Legislature?

http://www.nassaucountyny.gov/agencies/boe/results.html

With all but one precinct in:

County Executive
Mangano (R) 58.7%
Suozzi (D) 41.0%

District Attorney
Rice (D) 58.7%
Sturim (R) 41.3%

Comptroller
Maragos (R) 52.6%
Weitzman (D) 47.4%

County Clerk
O'Connell (R) 56.9%
Gillen (D) 43.1%

By my tally, Republicans retain control of the Nassau County Legislature, 10-8-1, with the 1 being a cross-endorsed Democrat who caucuses with Republicans.
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njwes
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« Reply #526 on: November 06, 2013, 03:13:54 pm »


It's leading by about the same percentage in Westchester County, which is usually a good belwether in statewide elections.  It will pass.  Good jobs will stay in the Adirondacks!  Smiley

Dude... gross.

Yes yes, how dare those conservative white trash country yokels actually get good job opportunities. Whenever these sorts of environmental issues crop up it's a nice reminder that many liberals and leftists don't actually care about working people.

Anyway, the results were pretty predictable. I was actually a bit surprised that Christie broke 60, and VERY surprised at how big the swing was in Hudson County!

The lack of change in the legislature is disappointing but hey, 2 more assembly seats are better than none, and there were actually several seats in both chambers (3 Senate seats in particular) that had very close margins. So despite some pretty efficient gerrymandering, I'd say NJ isn't at, say, VA levels of locked-in seats.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #527 on: November 06, 2013, 03:47:41 pm »


How dumb of him. All it's going to do is make him look bad. I doubt McAuliffe is kept up at night because Cooch never personally conceded to him.
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cinyc
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« Reply #528 on: November 06, 2013, 03:48:04 pm »
« Edited: November 06, 2013, 03:51:53 pm by cinyc »

The absentees have been counted already, no? It's just provisionals we're waiting for.

Absentees from most counties are included in the State Board of Elections tally.  Best I can tell, the only ones that the spreadsheet doesn't show a central absentee precinct for is Buena Vista City (R-leaning), Craig County (R-leaning), Norton City (R-leaning, but it only has 1 precinct, so absentees could have been folded in) and Sussex County (D-leaning) - though I might have missed a few counties.

Some provisionals are included in the State BoE tally.  We're generally talking about single-digit votes in the counties where they are in, though.  So I wouldn't expect much from them.

When I downloaded the spreadsheet to do the analysis about a half hour ago, the State BoE tally was:
Obenshain 1,101,029   
Herring 1,099,900   
Write-in 4704
So Obenshain + 1,129 -  a margin thinner than the write-ins.

It has since gone up to
Obershain 1,101,073   
Herring 1,099,904   
Write-in 4,920
Or Obershain +1,169
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« Reply #529 on: November 06, 2013, 04:24:43 pm »

Terry McAuliffe is a joke piece of trash. I'm so going to love his disastrous term as Governor.

Has Pretentious Public Polling put out a statement about how horribly wrong they were?

Someone's butthurt.

It's ok. I anxiously await the snake oil salesman's unpopulararity bringing down the VA Dems.

By the way, you really don't have to comb through my posts and throw jabs.

You'll notice from my posting history I was actively following this thread. Don't flatter yourself.

I've noticed in other threads, you respond/bump older posts of mine when returning from one of your extended periods away from this place. Wink

They're only a bump to the rest of you when I return from a sojourn in the real world; they're fresh and pithy responses from my perspective. Tongue
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cinyc
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« Reply #530 on: November 06, 2013, 06:11:22 pm »

And after some recanvassing, particularly in Prince William County, Herring takes a 32-vote lead in the State BoE tally:

Obenshain   1,100,798   49.89%   
Herring   1,100,830   49.89%   
Write-in   4,973   0.23%   
Total Votes   2,206,601   
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« Reply #531 on: November 06, 2013, 06:33:28 pm »

And after some recanvassing, particularly in Prince William County, Herring takes a 32-vote lead in the State BoE tally:

Obenshain   1,100,798   49.89%   
Herring   1,100,830   49.89%   
Write-in   4,973   0.23%   
Total Votes   2,206,601   

Shocked

Just Shocked

So do we know if this is with absentees or without? Anyone know the schedule for counting provisionals?

My guess is Obershain is screwed at this point.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #532 on: November 06, 2013, 06:37:57 pm »

A 32 vote lead, you can't make this up!

At this point, I'm REALLY glad that I voted.
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #533 on: November 06, 2013, 06:39:39 pm »
« Edited: November 06, 2013, 06:56:09 pm by traininthedistance »


It's leading by about the same percentage in Westchester County, which is usually a good belwether in statewide elections.  It will pass.  Good jobs will stay in the Adirondacks!  Smiley

Dude... gross.

Yes yes, how dare those conservative white trash country yokels actually get good job opportunities. Whenever these sorts of environmental issues crop up it's a nice reminder that many liberals and leftists don't actually care about working people.

Bull.  Those "good job opportunities" are inevitably far fewer, and far worse, than promised, and then when the mining company leaves (as it inevitably will, eventually), the people there will be worse off than before.

Hitching your star to resource extraction* is one of the worst economic development strategies there is.  I mean, I recognize that it is inevitably not seen that way (for various reasons) by most people living in those areas; and I do recognize that it's also not the sort of activity we can afford to eliminate entirely.  But we do need to reserve the ability to proscribe it from areas where it's particularly inappropriate (of which the Adirondacks happen to be such an area), and to have regulations with teeth that ensure proper mitigation.  

And it is definitely the case that, although rural development is a tricky thing, seeing through the false promise of "mining jobs" and understanding that there is a counterbalancing greater good to keep in mind should not and cannot be misconstrued as "not caring about working people".

*Mining in particular.  Forestry and fishery have their own sets of issues, but as a rule are much less destructive, or at least can be if done in a halfway-responsible manner.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #534 on: November 06, 2013, 06:52:59 pm »

A 32 vote lead, you can't make this up!

At this point, I'm REALLY glad that I voted.

I'm sure everyone who did a write in is regretting they didn't.
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Flake
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« Reply #535 on: November 06, 2013, 06:54:18 pm »

So with this current 32 vote lead:

Mark Herring (Democrat):         49.888%
Mark Obenshain (Republican): 49.887%
Write-in:                                   0.225%
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cinyc
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« Reply #536 on: November 06, 2013, 06:59:45 pm »

And after some recanvassing, particularly in Prince William County, Herring takes a 32-vote lead in the State BoE tally:

Obenshain   1,100,798   49.89%   
Herring   1,100,830   49.89%   
Write-in   4,973   0.23%   
Total Votes   2,206,601   

Shocked

Just Shocked

So do we know if this is with absentees or without? Anyone know the schedule for counting provisionals?

My guess is Obershain is screwed at this point.

I don't think anyone is screwed.  The most recent changes came from canvassing errors.  There could be more of them in either candidate's favor.  Canvassing errors tend to be random and don't help or harm any particular party.

Most, if not all absentees are in.  A few counties/cities have returns that don't include a central absentee precinct - but it's not clear if they have to have one.  The jurisdictions that don't have a listed central absentee precinct tend to favor Obenshain.  The provisional votes that have been counted in some counties are few - we're talking single digit total votes.  There might not be many provisional ballots to be counted.
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Badger
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« Reply #537 on: November 06, 2013, 07:08:07 pm »

And after some recanvassing, particularly in Prince William County, Herring takes a 32-vote lead in the State BoE tally:

Obenshain   1,100,798   49.89%   
Herring   1,100,830   49.89%   
Write-in   4,973   0.23%   
Total Votes   2,206,601   

Shocked

Just Shocked

So do we know if this is with absentees or without? Anyone know the schedule for counting provisionals?

My guess is Obershain is screwed at this point.

I don't think anyone is screwed.  The most recent changes came from canvassing errors.  There could be more of them in either candidate's favor.  Canvassing errors tend to be random and don't help or harm any particular party.

Most, if not all absentees are in.  A few counties/cities have returns that don't include a central absentee precinct - but it's not clear if they have to have one.  The jurisdictions that don't have a listed central absentee precinct tend to favor Obenshain.  The provisional votes that have been counted in some counties are few - we're talking single digit total votes.  There might not be many provisional ballots to be counted.

Well, given that provisionals tend to favor Dems, and as you said the jurisidictions with unreported central absentee precincts tend to favor Herring (or rather the ones without such precincts favor Obershain, ergo...), that makes it quite unlikely Obershain's deficit will increase. Not likely by much, but when he's already behind even slightly that's still a bad thing.

It sounds like he needs to rely on a few counting/recording errors in his favor to be discovered in order to win. Not impossible, but not likely either.
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cinyc
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« Reply #538 on: November 06, 2013, 07:36:41 pm »

Well, given that provisionals tend to favor Dems, and as you said the jurisidictions with unreported central absentee precincts tend to favor Herring (or rather the ones without such precincts favor Obershain, ergo...), that makes it quite unlikely Obershain's deficit will increase. Not likely by much, but when he's already behind even slightly that's still a bad thing.

It sounds like he needs to rely on a few counting/recording errors in his favor to be discovered in order to win. Not impossible, but not likely either.

There will be more tabulation errors.  There always are tabulation errors in the preliminary tally.  Normally, we don't notice because the margin isn't razor-thin.

There's a theory (probably correct) on Red Racing Horses that the flip itself was caused by a data entry error.  The precinct in Prince William that changed most in the recanvassing was 306 - Washington-Reid.  It went from 636-758-3 (R-D-Write-in) to 636-1517-3 - an increase of 759 votes for Herring, which is coincidentally one more vote than he received in the pre-recanvass tally.  McAulliffe is listed as winning that precinct 745-609-55-1.  And Obama only won Washington-Reid by 99 votes, 976-877.  I doubt Herring did that much better than Obama or outpolled McAuliffe by 700.

 
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« Reply #539 on: November 06, 2013, 07:53:48 pm »

Well, given that provisionals tend to favor Dems, and as you said the jurisidictions with unreported central absentee precincts tend to favor Herring (or rather the ones without such precincts favor Obershain, ergo...), that makes it quite unlikely Obershain's deficit will increase. Not likely by much, but when he's already behind even slightly that's still a bad thing.

It sounds like he needs to rely on a few counting/recording errors in his favor to be discovered in order to win. Not impossible, but not likely either.

There will be more tabulation errors.  There always are tabulation errors in the preliminary tally.  Normally, we don't notice because the margin isn't razor-thin.

There's a theory (probably correct) on Red Racing Horses that the flip itself was caused by a data entry error.  The precinct in Prince William that changed most in the recanvassing was 306 - Washington-Reid.  It went from 636-758-3 (R-D-Write-in) to 636-1517-3 - an increase of 759 votes for Herring, which is coincidentally one more vote than he received in the pre-recanvass tally.  McAulliffe is listed as winning that precinct 745-609-55-1.  And Obama only won Washington-Reid by 99 votes, 976-877.  I doubt Herring did that much better than Obama or outpolled McAuliffe by 700.

 

Normally I'd say tabulation errors can benefit either candidate equally, but that's a very specific example that should cheer VA Republicans. Good show, Cinyc!
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cinyc
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« Reply #540 on: November 06, 2013, 08:25:13 pm »

...and the Prince William County tabulation error has been fixed on the Virginia State Board of Elections' website.  Obenshain is now ahead by 726:

Obenshain   1,100,798   49.90%   
Herring   1,100,072   49.87%   
Write-in   4,973   0.23%   
Total Votes   2,205,843   
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Flake
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« Reply #541 on: November 06, 2013, 08:58:26 pm »

Obenshain lead decreased from 726 to 679.
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« Reply #542 on: November 06, 2013, 09:29:36 pm »
« Edited: November 06, 2013, 09:45:40 pm by rbt48 »

What about the legislatures?  From what I could count, the  NJ Senate remains 24D - 16R.  I counted two Rep gains in the Assembly for a 46D - 34R split.

In Virginia, the Senate (of course) remained 20 - 20 with a shift in majority party due to the change in party of the Lt Gov.  I counted a two seat D gain in the House (many near misses), but apparently a one seat D loss in an uncontested district (go figure that one).  I infer that the new House of Delegates will be 67R - 33D.

Please correct as needed.
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sg0508
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« Reply #543 on: November 06, 2013, 11:22:02 pm »

When it's that close, there is no way that the results are "legit".  You can't trust officials in this country.  That's what is very scary.

As for Nassau County (my home), the GOP cleaned up here last night.
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Flake
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« Reply #544 on: November 07, 2013, 11:05:25 am »

Obenshain leading by about 500 votes.
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Miles
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« Reply #545 on: November 07, 2013, 11:34:32 am »

The swing map for the southwest:

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Indy Texas
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« Reply #546 on: November 07, 2013, 12:07:13 pm »

This razor-thin AG race brings to mind the US Senate race in New Hampshire in 1974.

Louis Wyman (R) -- 110,926 -- 49.662%
John A. Durkin (D) -- 110,924 -- 49.661%

They ended up holding another election in the summer of 1975, which Durkin won by over 10 points.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #547 on: November 07, 2013, 12:30:09 pm »


Hey Miles, could you check results/swing for VA-10 (the westernmost NOVA seat)?  It looks like McAuliffe did much better than Obama there and the winner may be in doubt.
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Miles
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« Reply #548 on: November 07, 2013, 01:03:11 pm »


Hey Miles, could you check results/swing for VA-10 (the westernmost NOVA seat)?  It looks like McAuliffe did much better than Obama there and the winner may be in doubt.

Yeah, I'll do that next.
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jaichind
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« Reply #549 on: November 07, 2013, 01:38:34 pm »
« Edited: November 07, 2013, 01:51:01 pm by jaichind »

Westchester County is finally done 40 hours after the polls closed.  For County Executive it is

ROB ASTORINO(R)   56%
NOAM BRAMSON(D) 44%

This is almost the same as 2009 when Astorino won 57% of the vote in a surprise victory.  It seems the property tax and low-income housing issues still has legs here in Westchester.  Looking at the ads it is also clear Astorino clearly outspent Bramson by a wide margin.  I am pretty sure Astorino will run for NY governor 2018.

The Vote for Family Court Judge is in useful as all parties nominated the same person but looking at the line people voted for this unanimous candidate gives us a good idea the partisan breakdown of voters that turned out.

DEM                   53%
GOP                   35%
Conservative        7%
Working Families  3%
Independent        3%

So Right/Left split is around 42/56.

There are no turnover for County Legislature as the Dems successfully defended two open seats and GOP beat back Dem attempts to capture two vulnerable GOP incumbents.   So in the end it will stay 10-7 for the Dems.  With the same 2 Dem legislators voting with the GOP on budget issues being reelected without GOP competition, this means Astorino will not face a Dem veto-proof majority and in fact will have a de facto 9-8 majority as it continues to face off with the Obama regime over the low-income fair housing battles.
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