2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Gass3268]

Quinnipiac (Changes are from April 25):

House:

Dems 47% (-1)
Reps 40% (+/-)

Senate

Dems 48% (+/-)
Reps 40% (-1)

Source

[IceSpear]

LOL, so much for the narrative.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac (Changes are from April 25):

House:

Dems 47% (-1)
Reps 40% (+/-)

Senate

Dems 48% (+/-)
Reps 40% (-1)

Source

Finally a high-quality poll!

[LimoLiberal]

Generic Ballot is starting to widen up for the Dems again.

Same with the Trump approval average.  Both of them (on 538) have returned to their levels from around the beginning of May, after narrowing during the month.

And then Quinnipiac comes to BTFO of this narrative.

[ON Progressive]

Generic Ballot is starting to widen up for the Dems again.

Same with the Trump approval average.  Both of them (on 538) have returned to their levels from around the beginning of May, after narrowing during the month.

And then Quinnipiac comes to BTFO of this narrative.

They literally show Dems up 7, just like the average shows them up 7.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Generic Ballot is starting to widen up for the Dems again.

Same with the Trump approval average.  Both of them (on 538) have returned to their levels from around the beginning of May, after narrowing during the month.

And then Quinnipiac comes to BTFO of this narrative.

They literally show Dems up 7, just like the average shows them up 7.

[LimoLiberal]

Generic Ballot is starting to widen up for the Dems again.

Same with the Trump approval average.  Both of them (on 538) have returned to their levels from around the beginning of May, after narrowing during the month.

And then Quinnipiac comes to BTFO of this narrative.

They literally show Dems up 7, just like the average shows them up 7.

(I was talking about Quinnipiac showing Trump gaining 4 net points)

[Hindsight was 2020]

Generic Ballot is starting to widen up for the Dems again.

Same with the Trump approval average.  Both of them (on 538) have returned to their levels from around the beginning of May, after narrowing during the month.

And then Quinnipiac comes to BTFO of this narrative.

They literally show Dems up 7, just like the average shows them up 7.

Yeah I don’t get what Limo is talking about

[GeorgiaModerate]

Generic Ballot is starting to widen up for the Dems again.

Same with the Trump approval average.  Both of them (on 538) have returned to their levels from around the beginning of May, after narrowing during the month.

And then Quinnipiac comes to BTFO of this narrative.

They literally show Dems up 7, just like the average shows them up 7.

Yeah I don’t get what Limo is talking about

Looks like he's becoming increasingly divorced from reality.  I was thinking about unignoring him, but this changed my mind.

[BudgieForce]

I'd like to see more live caller polls but it definitely seems like the generic ballot is reverting back to pre-May numbers.

[Politician]

Generic Ballot is starting to widen up for the Dems again.

Same with the Trump approval average.  Both of them (on 538) have returned to their levels from around the beginning of May, after narrowing during the month.

And then Quinnipiac comes to BTFO of this narrative.

They literally show Dems up 7, just like the average shows them up 7.

Yeah I don’t get what Limo is talking about

Looks like he's becoming increasingly divorced from reality.  I was thinking about unignoring him, but this changed my mind.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Two more polls showing the Democrats regaining their edge-

YouGov

Democrats: 44% (+2)
Republicans: 38% (-1)


Rasmussen

Democrats: 45% (+2)
Republicans: 41% (-1)

But Reuters told me Red Wave (before it didn't).

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Some good recent numbers for Democrats. But where are the live caller polls?

Oh, so NOW you want live caller polls.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I say the Democrats will have a 2-3 point spread over the GOP until election day, but no matter what it will be a divided Congress, even if the GOP maintain control

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

IBD/TIPP shows another 7-point lead for the Democrats

Democrats: 47% (+1)
Republicans: 40% (-1)

https://www.investors.com/politics/trump-job-approval-economy-korea-favorability-ibd-tipp-poll/

Last poll was released in February

[Devout Centrist]

RCP's Generic Ballot Tracker has had the Democratic lead jump from 3.2% to 6.3% in less than 12 hours.

Again:

Y'know, no one is going to learn their damn lesson. We're gonna repeat the doomsaying of the past few weeks within two months or so.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's probably closer to 3.5 or 4

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Ispos/Reuters has Dems with an 11-point lead.

Democrats: 43% (+4)
Republicans: 32% (-5)

Someone get Sean T on the phone!

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2018-06/2018_reuters_tracking_-_core_political_06_06_2018.pdf

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's probably closer to 3.5 or 4

Why do you say that?  The data indicate otherwise.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Just cautious optimism, I never said GOP was leading. I want to see House polls, with individual match-ups,  too.

[CityofSinners]

I don't really understand why people still use RCP and not the 538 tracker. RCP is not transparent in what polls they include and is easily overtaken by online polls that publish often.

538 on the other hand includes more polls, adjust for partisan lean and pollster quality while also giving frequent pollster less weight.
Which produces a less swingy average, which should be closer to reality. Nobody believes that dems really doubled their GCB numbers in a day, like RCP would suggest.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't really understand why people still use RCP and not the 538 tracker. RCP is not transparent in what polls they include and is easily overtaken by online polls that publish often.

It's called a dead cat bounce,  Democrats get it after winning a primary and the Democrats were enthusiastic during the California primaries,  which caused a bump.  We saw the samething after Cordray won the governors race primary.

[Gass3268]

Ispos/Reuters has Dems with an 11-point lead.

Democrats: 43% (+4)
Republicans: 32% (-5)

Someone get Sean T on the phone!

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2018-06/2018_reuters_tracking_-_core_political_06_06_2018.pdf

This poll is nucking futs.

[KingSweden]

Nate Silver was more right than Sean T on 11:8:16, even if both were “wrong”

[IceSpear]

RIP red wave, Democrats just doubled their generic ballot lead in less than 24 hours. At this rate they'll win the House PV by at least 136 points.