2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm not hearing anything one way or the other about the Monmouth poll on my end.

I'm hearing positive Trump approval.

lol

Even if that happens, how on earth would you have sources telling you the contents of some university poll?

Perhaps it's the voices in his head?

[Hindsight was 2020]

I'm not hearing anything one way or the other about the Monmouth poll on my end.

I'm hearing positive Trump approval.

lol

Even if that happens, how on earth would you have sources telling you the contents of some university poll?

Don't feed the troll

[here2view]

I'm not hearing anything one way or the other about the Monmouth poll on my end.

I'm hearing positive Trump approval.

You need to try harder at trolling, your efforts are pathetic.

[Pericles]

Sources have told me Dems have a 17 point lead in the Monomouth poll and Trump has a -32% approval rating.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Sources have told me Dems have a 17 point lead in the Monomouth poll and Trump has a -32% approval rating.

I wish.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

What's going on in Nebraska 2nd? Omaha doesn't exactly fit the "New Democratic/Champagne Liberal" trend seen across the nation.

[Holmes]

What's going on in Nebraska 2nd? Omaha doesn't exactly fit the "New Democratic/Champagne Liberal" trend seen across the nation.

What do you mean? It's a well off urban/suburban district with a decent black population and I believe a greater amount of college educated voters than the national average. This is pretty much ground zero for Democrats in the Trump years.

[Gass3268]

What's going on in Nebraska 2nd? Omaha doesn't exactly fit the "New Democratic/Champagne Liberal" trend seen across the nation.

What do you mean? It's a well off urban/suburban district with a decent black population and I believe a greater amount of college educated voters than the national average. This is pretty much ground zero for Democrats in the Trump years.

Plus the Middle Plains (KS and NE) seem to have had a negative reaction to Trump and current Republicanism (Brownback & Ricketts).

[Doimper]

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Can somebody explain the logic of this to me? Why is the NRCC pouring money into this race? Let Saccone sink or swim on his own, and if he goes down they can just find a candidate that's not so abjectly awful to run for the new 14th in November. I don't think that avoiding the humiliation of losing a district in deep Trump country is worth millions of dollars.

[Landslide Lyndon]

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Can somebody explain the logic of this to me? Why is the NRCC pouring money into this race? Let Saccone sink or swim on his own, and if he goes down they can just find a candidate that's not so abjectly awful to run for the new 14th in November. I don't think that avoiding the humiliation of losing a district in deep Trump country is worth millions of dollars.

Because if they lose this race there will be possibly another wave of retirements which will make their control of the House even more tenuous.

[Doimper]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Can somebody explain the logic of this to me? Why is the NRCC pouring money into this race? Let Saccone sink or swim on his own, and if he goes down they can just find a candidate that's not so abjectly awful to run for the new 14th in November. I don't think that avoiding the humiliation of losing a district in deep Trump country is worth millions of dollars.

Because if they lose this race there will be possibly another wave of retirements which will make their control of the House even more tenuous.

I want to believe that congresspeople base their decision to retire off more than the variance of a few points in a special election, but you're probably right. A Lamb +.5 victory would be much more impactful than a Saccone +.5 victory, even though the swing from 2016 would be about the same.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

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Can somebody explain the logic of this to me? Why is the NRCC pouring money into this race? Let Saccone sink or swim on his own, and if he goes down they can just find a candidate that's not so abjectly awful to run for the new 14th in November. I don't think that avoiding the humiliation of losing a district in deep Trump country is worth millions of dollars.

Because if they lose this race there will be possibly another wave of retirements which will make their control of the House even more tenuous.

Yea, I think Paul Ryan will be watching this race very closely.

[NOVA Green]

Trump, Ricketts and Fischer all deeply underwater in NE-02

Trump:

38% Approve
54% Disapprove

Ricketts

34% Approve
50% Disapprove

Fischer

33% Approve
45% Disapprove

RIP Don Bacon

Hmm... NE-02 is certainly looking like an easy flip.

This shows the suburban decline for the GOP is wide spread

As does this thread regarding Upper Income swings against the Republican Pres nominee between '12 and '16 by municipalities in various States that multiple posters contributed to, including yours truly, that includes swings from at least 28/50 states in the US....

What is interesting is that the wealthiest places in Nebraska (Sarpy & Lancaster Counties) actually did not swing Heavy HRC in 2016, as opposed to most other relatively affluent upper-income 'burbs in most parts of the US....

Results from Gretna in NE-02 for example:

2.) Gretna-   (Sarpy County)--- MHI $73.7k-  Pop 5.1k

Precincts 59 & 60

2012: (32 D- 66 R)      +34 R
2016: (29 D- 62 R)      +33 R   (+1% D Swing)

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259050.msg5715360#msg5715360

and then another "wealthiest places within the wealthiest counties"

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=267040.msg5742288#msg5742288

It will be interesting to see if and where these phenomenon intensifies in down-ballot General Elections in 2018, considering that Trump is most likely a bit less popular than he was in November '16, and we have special election data indicating that perhaps his disapproval ratings are really starting to hit down-ballot Republicans.

[Badger]

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Can somebody explain the logic of this to me? Why is the NRCC pouring money into this race? Let Saccone sink or swim on his own, and if he goes down they can just find a candidate that's not so abjectly awful to run for the new 14th in November. I don't think that avoiding the humiliation of losing a district in deep Trump country is worth millions of dollars.

Because if they lose this race there will be possibly another wave of retirements which will make their control of the House even more tenuous.

Not to mention fire up Democratic fundraising, enthusiasm and media narrative, while depressing all the above for republicans.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/07/trump-polls-2020-democrats-443083

Politico/MC has the GCB at D+7 (44-37), up from D+2.

[Gass3268]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/07/trump-polls-2020-democrats-443083

Politico/MC has the GCB at D+7 (44-37), up from D+2.

Up 8 points from the one before. This is what happens when you actually have a more accurate sample (Hillary +1).

[KingSweden]

Yo Limo where you at

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/07/trump-polls-2020-democrats-443083

Politico/MC has the GCB at D+7 (44-37), up from D+2.

Up 9 points from the one before. This is what happens when you actually have a more accurate sample (Hillary +1).

Check your arithmetic.

[Ebsy]

The Monmouth national polls that was supposed to come out yesterday afternoon is now apparently coming out on CNN at 1:00 EDT.

[Gass3268]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/07/trump-polls-2020-democrats-443083

Politico/MC has the GCB at D+7 (44-37), up from D+2.

Up 9 points from the one before. This is what happens when you actually have a more accurate sample (Hillary +1).

Check your arithmetic.

I thought it was R+2, but it was indeed R+1.

[Gass3268]

YouGov:

43% Democrats (+3)
37% Republicans (-1)

Source

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Limo is awfully quiet...

[LimoLiberal]

Some good to great polls for Democrats esta mañana. Unfortunately, the primary results in Texas were disastrous, and those get equal weighting in my mind model, which is the most accurate model.

[Gass3268]

New Watson Center - Christopher Newman University Virginia Poll



Some of these are questionable...

Overall the Congressional Ballot in Virginia:

Democrats 45%
Republicans 33%

[LimoLiberal]

New Watson Center - Christopher Newman University Virginia Poll



Some of these are questionable...

Overall the Congressional Ballot in:

Democrats 45%
Republicans 33%

Comstock, Taylor, and Brat are all gone with these numbers.