2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original
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Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original  (Read 209301 times)
Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #875 on: March 31, 2018, 10:20:52 AM »


The graph don't lie.
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Hindsight was 2020
Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #876 on: April 01, 2018, 11:01:28 AM »
No one show Lear https://mobile.twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/980142373631033344
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #877 on: April 01, 2018, 01:53:43 PM »
PPP poll of South Carolina CD 1, which Trump won 54-40 and Romney won 58-40.

https://www.postandcourier.com/cunningham-st-district-poll/pdf_60d4f8e6-3431-11e8-8249-6361aacaeb48.html

Trump approval: 46/47.

Generic Congressional ballot: R 46, D 40.

Mark Sanford favorability: 44/40.

Reelect Sanford or prefer someone new?  Sanford 38, someone new 52.

Prefer a Republican who will support Trump's agenda, or a Democrat who will work across party lines to get results?   D 53, R 40.

The last four viewed together are interesting, to say the least.  I'm not quite sure what to make of them.
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #878 on: April 01, 2018, 02:11:26 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on April 01, 2018, 01:53:43 PM
PPP poll of South Carolina CD 1, which Trump won 54-40 and Romney won 58-40.

https://www.postandcourier.com/cunningham-st-district-poll/pdf_60d4f8e6-3431-11e8-8249-6361aacaeb48.html

Trump approval: 46/47.

Generic Congressional ballot: R 46, D 40.

Mark Sanford favorability: 44/40.

Reelect Sanford or prefer someone new?  Sanford 38, someone new 52.

Prefer a Republican who will support Trump's agenda, or a Democrat who will work across party lines to get results?   D 53, R 40.

The last four viewed together are interesting, to say the least.  I'm not quite sure what to make of them.

Devastating poll for democrats. How can dems win the house when they are down by 6 in districts like this?
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KingSweden
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« Reply #879 on: April 01, 2018, 02:42:36 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on April 01, 2018, 01:53:43 PM
PPP poll of South Carolina CD 1, which Trump won 54-40 and Romney won 58-40.

https://www.postandcourier.com/cunningham-st-district-poll/pdf_60d4f8e6-3431-11e8-8249-6361aacaeb48.html

Trump approval: 46/47.

Generic Congressional ballot: R 46, D 40.

Mark Sanford favorability: 44/40.

Reelect Sanford or prefer someone new?  Sanford 38, someone new 52.

Prefer a Republican who will support Trump's agenda, or a Democrat who will work across party lines to get results?   D 53, R 40.

The last four viewed together are interesting, to say the least.  I'm not quite sure what to make of them.

And Joe Cunningham seems like an excellent candidate for this district
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #880 on: April 01, 2018, 04:23:43 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on April 01, 2018, 01:53:43 PM
PPP poll of South Carolina CD 1, which Trump won 54-40 and Romney won 58-40.

https://www.postandcourier.com/cunningham-st-district-poll/pdf_60d4f8e6-3431-11e8-8249-6361aacaeb48.html

Trump approval: 46/47.

Generic Congressional ballot: R 46, D 40.

Mark Sanford favorability: 44/40.

Reelect Sanford or prefer someone new?  Sanford 38, someone new 52.

Prefer a Republican who will support Trump's agenda, or a Democrat who will work across party lines to get results?   D 53, R 40.

The last four viewed together are interesting, to say the least.  I'm not quite sure what to make of them.

Trump may have only won here by 13, but Sanford himself won by 22 in 2016. Bad sign for Republicans if even a Republican incumbent who won by that kind of margin is now leading by less than 10%. Someone like Dave Brat in Virginia or Ted Budd in North Carolina could easily be in a 50-50 race if (potentially a big if, plus all the standard "just one poll" caveats) this is reflective of the national environment.
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Badger
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« Reply #881 on: April 02, 2018, 08:19:44 AM »
Quote from: Singletxguyforfun on March 25, 2018, 12:53:22 PM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on March 25, 2018, 12:49:38 PM
At this point, I have completely given up on tracking the generic ballot polls. All the pollsters, no matter what result they post, acknowledge the fact the GOP is probably going to lose the House in November.

Just like how they said Hillary had a 95% chance of winning in 2016? 😜

She did.
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Badger
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« Reply #882 on: April 02, 2018, 08:22:49 AM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on March 25, 2018, 04:53:57 PM
Quote from: Mondale on March 25, 2018, 04:24:35 PM
Tiffany Trump calling it....blue wave imminent:



She's a millennial woman who just graduated from an Ivy League school and she's going to law school in Georgetown. Of course she's liberal.

And, sadly, has as much reason to hate The Donald personally as anyone.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #883 on: April 02, 2018, 08:29:29 AM »
Quote from: Badger on April 02, 2018, 08:19:44 AM
Quote from: Singletxguyforfun on March 25, 2018, 12:53:22 PM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on March 25, 2018, 12:49:38 PM
At this point, I have completely given up on tracking the generic ballot polls. All the pollsters, no matter what result they post, acknowledge the fact the GOP is probably going to lose the House in November.

Just like how they said Hillary had a 95% chance of winning in 2016? 😜

She did.

Actually, 538 had her at 70% or even less during the final week, meaning Trump was as likely to win as a .300 hitter in baseball was to get a hit -- something that happens all the time.
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Atlas Force
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« Reply #884 on: April 02, 2018, 02:10:17 PM »
« Edited: April 02, 2018, 02:16:34 PM by Atlas Force »
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #885 on: April 02, 2018, 03:42:34 PM »
Quote from: Atlas Force on April 02, 2018, 02:10:17 PM


What was #1? GOP in '94?
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KingSweden
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« Reply #886 on: April 02, 2018, 03:48:52 PM »
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on April 02, 2018, 03:42:34 PM
Quote from: Atlas Force on April 02, 2018, 02:10:17 PM


What was #1? GOP in '94?

Dems 2006, I think
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #887 on: April 02, 2018, 04:32:27 PM »
« Edited: April 02, 2018, 04:38:24 PM by PittsburghSteel »
Harvard-Harris Poll:

Democrats +11

Democrats: 45% (+4)
Republicans: 34% (-2)

http://harvardharrispoll.com/
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Holmes
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« Reply #888 on: April 02, 2018, 04:40:41 PM »
So many pollsters are bouncing between low double digits one week to mid single digits the next, then back to low double digits.
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
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« Reply #889 on: April 02, 2018, 06:52:58 PM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on April 02, 2018, 04:32:27 PM
Harvard-Harris Poll:

Democrats +11

Democrats: 45% (+4)
Republicans: 34% (-2)

http://harvardharrispoll.com/
I can only hope that holds.
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #890 on: April 02, 2018, 07:26:07 PM »
Quote from: Holmes on April 02, 2018, 04:40:41 PM
So many pollsters are bouncing between low double digits one week to mid single digits the next, then back to low double digits.

(The electorate hasn't actually changed their opinions since June of last year. Special elections have been very similar since then except slightly better for democrats since January)
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #891 on: April 02, 2018, 07:36:07 PM »
Quote from: DTC on April 02, 2018, 07:26:07 PM
Quote from: Holmes on April 02, 2018, 04:40:41 PM
So many pollsters are bouncing between low double digits one week to mid single digits the next, then back to low double digits.

(The electorate hasn't actually changed their opinions since June of last year. Special elections have been very similar since then except slightly better for democrats since January)

I think this is basically true, and it is hard to imagine anything changing that before November other than a major economic downturn or a war.
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Holmes
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« Reply #892 on: April 02, 2018, 08:06:59 PM »
I agree. Variances in polls because "yay I got my tax return" or "boo the Dow went down 900 points today" won't factor into the decision voters make at the polls, as the specials have shown.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #893 on: April 03, 2018, 08:03:50 AM »
« Edited: April 03, 2018, 08:31:29 AM by Brittain33 »
Not a poll, but 47% of Dem-held House state legislative seats will go uncontested this midterm.

(edited to avoid future corrections --mod.)
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #894 on: April 03, 2018, 08:17:22 AM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on April 03, 2018, 08:03:50 AM
Not a poll, but 47% of Dem-held House seats will go uncontested this midterm.

Source?
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #895 on: April 03, 2018, 08:18:19 AM »
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #896 on: April 03, 2018, 08:20:04 AM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on April 03, 2018, 08:18:19 AM


He's talking about state legislature seats, not US House seats.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #897 on: April 03, 2018, 08:24:11 AM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on April 03, 2018, 08:20:04 AM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on April 03, 2018, 08:18:19 AM


He's talking about state legislature seats, not US House seats.

Oh well. Still significant.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #898 on: April 03, 2018, 10:17:21 AM »
PPP: Rod Blum has a -20 (34/54) approval rating in IA-01

Trump (41/54) and Paul Ryan (26/61) are also underwater. The tax bill is extremely unpopular (31/53), while the ACA is popular (47/35).
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Doimper
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« Reply #899 on: April 03, 2018, 11:05:21 AM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on April 03, 2018, 10:17:21 AM
PPP: Rod Blum has a -20 (34/54) approval rating in IA-01

Trump (41/54) and Paul Ryan (26/61) are also underwater. The tax bill is extremely unpopular (31/53), while the ACA is popular (47/35).

Neato.
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