2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[KingSweden]

Poll of the new PA-07: http://www.mcall.com/news/breaking/mc-nws-pennsylvania-congress-pa7-poll-20180504-story.html

Conducted May 3, 408 RV

Morganelli +18 over Nothstein, +15 over Browning.

Democrats +11 on the generic ballot.

53% disapprove of Trump.

The link to the pdf to the full results is not functioning at the moment.

Doesn't match up well with the Generic Ballot . Too Dem-friendly.

Here’s a crazy suggestion - what if one took GCB polls, district polls, state polls, fundraising, recruiting and recent election results and viewed the picture comprehensively rather than cherry picking data that confirms your priors and then trolling the board about how you’re right and everybody else is wrong?

Something else of course to be taken into account is that Morganelli is to the Lehigh Valley like Tim Holden used to be for Schuylkill. Insanely popular in his seat, but not to liked outside the region for his rightish views. I have a hard time seeing Moganelli loose.

I mean - yes, that too, but your response is actual analysis rather than Hofoid’s craptastic buffoonery

[Blackacre]

Love live the chart:

Huh; I havent seen that dip in GCB averages myself so IDK where the chart is pulling it from

[KingSweden]

Love live the chart:

Huh; I havent seen that dip in GCB averages myself so IDK where the chart is pulling it from

I’m curious about this too. What is Morris’s average?

[LimoLiberal]

Poll of the new PA-07: http://www.mcall.com/news/breaking/mc-nws-pennsylvania-congress-pa7-poll-20180504-story.html

Conducted May 3, 408 RV

Morganelli +18 over Nothstein, +15 over Browning.

Democrats +11 on the generic ballot.

53% disapprove of Trump.

The link to the pdf to the full results is not functioning at the moment.

Great poll for Democrats!

I don't want Morganelli to win the primary, but at the same time I do want him to win because I think his immigration views actually do line up well with the composition of this district (Lou Barletta was very popular in NE PA even in the Obama years because of this) and he would make this an instant pickup

[Gass3268]

Love live the chart:

Huh; I havent seen that dip in GCB averages myself so IDK where the chart is pulling it from

I’m curious about this too. What is Morris’s average?

I believe he uses Pollster on Huff Post.

[KingSweden]

Poll of the new PA-07: http://www.mcall.com/news/breaking/mc-nws-pennsylvania-congress-pa7-poll-20180504-story.html

Conducted May 3, 408 RV

Morganelli +18 over Nothstein, +15 over Browning.

Democrats +11 on the generic ballot.

53% disapprove of Trump.

The link to the pdf to the full results is not functioning at the moment.

Great poll for Democrats!

I don't want Morganelli to win the primary, but at the same time I do want him to win because I think his immigration views actually do line up well with the composition of this district (Lou Barletta was very popular in NE PA even in the Obama years because of this) and he would make this an instant pickup

It’s an odd district now that it combines Northampton, which is more NEPA, and suburban Lehighz

Still, I’ve seen no sign that Morganelli will lose. We’re looking at potentially 3 instapickups in PA

[Virginiá]

I kind of want to ask G. Elliot Morris to do an AMA here lol

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Poll of the new PA-07: http://www.mcall.com/news/breaking/mc-nws-pennsylvania-congress-pa7-poll-20180504-story.html

Conducted May 3, 408 RV

Morganelli +18 over Nothstein, +15 over Browning.

Democrats +11 on the generic ballot.

53% disapprove of Trump.

The link to the pdf to the full results is not functioning at the moment.

Excellent.

[KingSweden]

I kind of want to ask G. Elliot Morris to do an AMA here lol

God me too can you imagine?

[Blackacre]

I kind of want to ask G. Elliot Morris to do an AMA here lol

He has a patreon. Pledging $2 to it gets you his private discord server, and every tuesday night they talk elections.

https://www.patreon.com/bePatron?u=10081802&redirect_uri=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.thecrosstab.com%2F&utm_medium=widget

[BudgieForce]

Reuters has the generic ballot at Dems +5 AA and Dems +6 RV.


https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/reuters-ipsos-data-core-political-2018-05-04

[GeorgiaModerate]

Reuters has the generic ballot at Dems +5 AA and Dems +6 RV.


https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/reuters-ipsos-data-core-political-2018-05-04

It's worth noting that Reuters included a comment that they think it's an outlier:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The party distribution looks R-heavy:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I thought we already established that Reuters is trash.

[Maxwell]

Poll of the new PA-07: http://www.mcall.com/news/breaking/mc-nws-pennsylvania-congress-pa7-poll-20180504-story.html

Conducted May 3, 408 RV

Morganelli +18 over Nothstein, +15 over Browning.

Democrats +11 on the generic ballot.

53% disapprove of Trump.

The link to the pdf to the full results is not functioning at the moment.

Morganelli is trash but if he won the Dem Primary this district is his as long as he wants. Unless he gets booted in the Dem primary, of course, which will always be a risk considering his... interesting views on immigration.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Poll of the new PA-07: http://www.mcall.com/news/breaking/mc-nws-pennsylvania-congress-pa7-poll-20180504-story.html

Conducted May 3, 408 RV

Morganelli +18 over Nothstein, +15 over Browning.

Democrats +11 on the generic ballot.

53% disapprove of Trump.

The link to the pdf to the full results is not functioning at the moment.

Morganelli is trash but if he won the Dem Primary this district is his as long as he wants. Unless he gets booted in the Dem primary, of course, which will always be a risk considering his... interesting views on immigration.

Godspeed to Greg Edwards.

[ON Progressive]

Poll of the new PA-07: http://www.mcall.com/news/breaking/mc-nws-pennsylvania-congress-pa7-poll-20180504-story.html

Conducted May 3, 408 RV

Morganelli +18 over Nothstein, +15 over Browning.

Democrats +11 on the generic ballot.

53% disapprove of Trump.

The link to the pdf to the full results is not functioning at the moment.

Morganelli is trash but if he won the Dem Primary this district is his as long as he wants. Unless he gets booted in the Dem primary, of course, which will always be a risk considering his... interesting views on immigration.

Godspeed to Greg Edwards.

[KingSweden]

I thought we already established that Reuters is trash.

I don’t think so. You wind up with outliers every now and then. QPac has been crazy noisy of late.

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/MurphinDC/status/992465323088646146

Trump won this suburban Raleigh district 53-44.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Ipsos is rated as an A- by 538. Even really good pollsters like Monmouth have some outlier polls (like the D+2 poll recently).

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/MurphinDC/status/992465323088646146

Trump won this suburban Raleigh district 53-44.

I’m still of a mind that NC/9 and 13 would fall before this district does

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/MurphinDC/status/992465323088646146

Trump won this suburban Raleigh district 53-44.

Go Romley! He is a business partner of an friend's dad.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/MurphinDC/status/992465323088646146

Trump won this suburban Raleigh district 53-44.

Ya see, while the generic ballot is closer than expected, the individual race polling and fundraising numbers seem to be more accurate.

[publicunofficial]

Poll of the new PA-07: http://www.mcall.com/news/breaking/mc-nws-pennsylvania-congress-pa7-poll-20180504-story.html

Conducted May 3, 408 RV

Morganelli +18 over Nothstein, +15 over Browning.

Democrats +11 on the generic ballot.

53% disapprove of Trump.

The link to the pdf to the full results is not functioning at the moment.

Morganelli is trash but if he won the Dem Primary this district is his as long as he wants. Unless he gets booted in the Dem primary, of course, which will always be a risk considering his... interesting views on immigration.

I'd rather have Edwards win the seat and have it start as Lean D/Toss-Up every cycle than have Morganelli hold it down for decades.

[KingSweden]

Poll of the new PA-07: http://www.mcall.com/news/breaking/mc-nws-pennsylvania-congress-pa7-poll-20180504-story.html

Conducted May 3, 408 RV

Morganelli +18 over Nothstein, +15 over Browning.

Democrats +11 on the generic ballot.

53% disapprove of Trump.

The link to the pdf to the full results is not functioning at the moment.

Morganelli is trash but if he won the Dem Primary this district is his as long as he wants. Unless he gets booted in the Dem primary, of course, which will always be a risk considering his... interesting views on immigration.

I'd rather have Edwards win the seat and have it start as Lean D/Toss-Up every cycle than have Morganelli hold it down for decades.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/MurphinDC/status/992465323088646146

Trump won this suburban Raleigh district 53-44.

Ya see, while the generic ballot is closer than expected, the individual race polling and fundraising numbers seem to be more accurate.

Possible explanations:

1. Modeling the wrong electorate: Trump voters will stay home and it will be a blowout like the average of the specials
2. Modeling the wrong electorate: Trump voters will turn out much more, like they did in GA-06, which means only a few districts flip nationally, mainly Clinton blowout seats like FL-27
3. Utah, Texas, Atlanta, etc. are coming home to Republicans vs. 2016 and inflating their GCB numbers, but the Midwest is coming home to Democrats and that is where most of the swing seats are.
4. Republicans gaining ground in Dem strongholds like VRA districts vs. 2016, inflating their GCB numbers while suburban seats swing even harder against them.

IMO it looks like some combination of 1 and 4.  #2 is possible, but given how the polls missed big on intensity of base turnout in each of 2012/14/16, I doubt it.  I don't really buy #3 at all, as rural Trump/Romney/every Republican since Reagan +20 districts are swinging hardest in the specials. 

I do think declining turnout/margin with minority voters will be a medium-long run problem for Dems.