2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[LimoLiberal]

Harry Enten gets it. This is what I have been saying for days.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/24/politics/special-elections-democrats-not-doing-well/index.html?sr=twCNNp052418special-elections-democrats-not-doing-well0900PMStory&CNNPolitics=Tw

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[Pericles]

Tbh Shak is a lot worse than just a jort wearer.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

LL, we're going to have a field day with you the day after the election.

[LimoLiberal]

LL, we're going to have a field day with you the day after the election.

To be clear, if the Democrats are leading the generic ballot by 7-10 points in the fall than I will be pretty comfortable in predicting a house takeover. But I don't think they will be.

[NOVA Green]

Maybe this is secret "Bulworth" style strategy with the wearing of jorts, combined with a personal and political transformation of Shak, into a total FF???

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bulworth

Bulworth Clip: "Bulworth Money, Media, and Government"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MgEcINKV5Xw

Any of y'all that haven't yet seen this movie (And since it's Atlas I suspect most of you have), you should definitely rent or buy this classic political comedy from the late '90s....   

[KingSweden]

Does anyone still have that chart with the current average trend and the prior years’ average trends?

LL, we're going to have a field day with you the day after the election.

Indeed, we will be so grateful for his constant warnings.  We would have never been prepared for the inevitable “red monsoon” that stopped the blue wave brought ashore otherwise.  We will shower him with praise and picnics.

One of us might even throw down and get him a medium quality hooker

[Doimper]

LL, we're going to have a field day with you the day after the election.

It's not going to be as satisfying as you think. Andrew will lay low for a for few weeks, then start up again in 2019.

[Pericles]

And pretend to be repentant and changed.

[Politician]

LL, we're going to have a field day with you the day after the election.

It's not going to be as satisfying as you think. Andrew will lay low for a for few weeks, then start up again in 2019.

"Trump will win a 49-state landslide in 2020!"

[Gass3268]

You can blame the dip in the CGB almost exclusively in Ipsos/Reuters.

https://twitter.com/PollsAndVotes/status/1000006097787281408

[RINO Tom]

The comeback of NOVA Republicans lies entirely in focusing on the jorts epidemic.

[Politician]

LL, we're going to have a field day with you the day after the election.

To be clear, if the Democrats are leading the generic ballot by 7-10 points in the fall than I will be pretty comfortable in predicting a house takeover. But I don't think they will be.

No, you'll still say Dems are DOA.

[LabourJersey]

The wearing of jorts past the age of 20 should frankly be a capital offense so Barbara is doing God’s work here

[Goldenstateguy]

It is quite amazing to see the Democrats generic ballot lead fall from 13 points in December to 4 points today. If the Democrats generic ballot lead is only 4 points on Election Day they will not flip the House. This is phenomenal news for the Republican Party.

[BudgieForce]

It is quite amazing to see the Democrats generic ballot lead fall from 13 points in December to 4 points today. If the Democrats generic ballot lead is only 4 points on Election Day they will not flip the House. This is phenomenal news for the Republican Party.

I'd bet my bottom dollar May is/was a high water mark for the GOP and Trump.

[Doimper]

Tbh Shak is a lot worse than just a jort wearer.

A Republican?

[junior chįmp]

Trump has the widest intensity gap recorded since they started asking the question

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Trump has the widest intensity gap recorded since they started asking the question

Yeah, that sounds right.

[Doimper]

Kind of surprised by how low Bush's "very negative"s were back in late 2006.

[Pericles]

Kind of surprised by how low Bush's "very negative"s were back in late 2006.

[Lachi]

It is quite amazing to see the Democrats generic ballot lead fall from 13 points in December to 4 points today. If the Democrats generic ballot lead is only 4 points on Election Day they will not flip the House. This is phenomenal news for the Republican Party.

Historically, the party out of the white house will have their polling improve as the year goes on.

[KingSweden]

Kind of surprised by how low Bush's "very negative"s were back in late 2006.

In 2006 the dam really broke in the summer and fall with the Mark Foley stuff. Dems probably don’t nab the House and miss out on 2-3 Senate seats without it

[Person Man]

Kind of surprised by how low Bush's "very negative"s were back in late 2006.

In 2006 the dam really broke in the summer and fall with the Mark Foley stuff. Dems probably don’t nab the House and miss out on 2-3 Senate seats without it

That was the October surprise? Now something like that would be far less damaging. You know there in s something amiss if a pizzagate like thing happens to be true and changes the fundamentals very little

[Landslide Lyndon]

Kind of surprised by how low Bush's "very negative"s were back in late 2006.

In 2006 the dam really broke in the summer and fall with the Mark Foley stuff. Dems probably don’t nab the House and miss out on 2-3 Senate seats without it

That was the October surprise? Now something like that would be far less damaging. You know there in s something amiss if a pizzagate like thing happens to be true and changes the fundamentals very little

Voters were already fed up with Republicans. But hearing that they were covering up the fact that one of them was preying underage boys was the straw that broke the camel's back.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Remember that last Ipsos poll with a sudden jump to R+5?  Yes, boys and girls, this is what we call an "outlier".  New poll:

D: 42 (+6)
R: 34 (-7)