2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Bidenworth2020]

How do Horn, McAdams, and Cunningham win again?  They're among my favorites of the new class so far.

Hope 2020 is a Democratic tsunami, because they're going to lose otherwise.

With how their districts are trending, Horn and McAdams certainly don’t need a "tsunami" to survive. A good year for Democrats? Maybe. A tsunami? No. Cunningham is probably the most vulnerable of the three, but then again I wouldn’t say he’s much more likely to lose than someone like Brindisi or Peterson.

Peterson, Cunningham, and Horn (also XTS, Rose, and Brindisi) are all gone in a close Presidential


SLC tends to be weird and sometimes votes Dem and Trump is unpopular in UT, so McAdams is the likeliest, by far, to survive of these

Max Rose's race is Tilt D at worst in a close Presidential race and with XTS, and Peterson, they'd be underdogs, but could easily end up winning re-election even with a close Presidential race.  Horn, Cunningham, and Brindisi are probably in trouble though without a damaged or non-A list opponent (especially Horn who seems like she was probably a fluke)

Staten Island is very Trumpy

Also Nicole Malliotakis, who is running, trounced deBlasio in Staten Island, she got over 70%, in 2017, bold prediction, Malliotakis wins Staten Island by at least 10 percentage points against Rose

the recent nyc qpac poll had him at -5 in Staten, and every dem won it in 2018. Seems to be swinging back.

[OneJ]

How do Horn, McAdams, and Cunningham win again?  They're among my favorites of the new class so far.

Hope 2020 is a Democratic tsunami, because they're going to lose otherwise.

With how their districts are trending, Horn and McAdams certainly don’t need a "tsunami" to survive. A good year for Democrats? Maybe. A tsunami? No. Cunningham is probably the most vulnerable of the three, but then again I wouldn’t say he’s much more likely to lose than someone like Brindisi or Peterson.

Peterson, Cunningham, and Horn (also XTS, Rose, and Brindisi) are all gone in a close Presidential


SLC tends to be weird and sometimes votes Dem and Trump is unpopular in UT, so McAdams is the likeliest, by far, to survive of these

Max Rose's race is Tilt D at worst in a close Presidential race and with XTS, and Peterson, they'd be underdogs, but could easily end up winning re-election even with a close Presidential race.  Horn, Cunningham, and Brindisi are probably in trouble though without a damaged or non-A list opponent (especially Horn who seems like she was probably a fluke)

Staten Island is very Trumpy

Also Nicole Malliotakis, who is running, trounced deBlasio in Staten Island, she got over 70%, in 2017, bold prediction, Malliotakis wins Staten Island by at least 10 percentage points against Rose

the recent nyc qpac poll had him at -5 in Staten, and every dem won it in 2018. Seems to be swinging back.

This. Reminder that it wasn’t too long ago that Obama ended up winning this borough for whatever odd reason. Also, that recent NYC poll from Quinnipiac was not the first time it showed Trump underwater there.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

How do Horn, McAdams, and Cunningham win again?  They're among my favorites of the new class so far.

Hope 2020 is a Democratic tsunami, because they're going to lose otherwise.

With how their districts are trending, Horn and McAdams certainly don’t need a "tsunami" to survive. A good year for Democrats? Maybe. A tsunami? No. Cunningham is probably the most vulnerable of the three, but then again I wouldn’t say he’s much more likely to lose than someone like Brindisi or Peterson.

Peterson, Cunningham, and Horn (also XTS, Rose, and Brindisi) are all gone in a close Presidential


SLC tends to be weird and sometimes votes Dem and Trump is unpopular in UT, so McAdams is the likeliest, by far, to survive of these

Max Rose's race is Tilt D at worst in a close Presidential race and with XTS, and Peterson, they'd be underdogs, but could easily end up winning re-election even with a close Presidential race.  Horn, Cunningham, and Brindisi are probably in trouble though without a damaged or non-A list opponent (especially Horn who seems like she was probably a fluke)

Staten Island is very Trumpy

Also Nicole Malliotakis, who is running, trounced deBlasio in Staten Island, she got over 70%, in 2017, bold prediction, Malliotakis wins Staten Island by at least 10 percentage points against Rose

There's actually a good bit of evidence to suggest voters on Staten Island aren't all that crazy about Trump anymore and Rose is a perfect fit for the district.  Also, crushing De Blasio on Staten Island isn't a particularly impressive accomplishment.

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/lbarronlopez/status/1115618609617940480

[wesmoorenerd]

Lmao at the blue avatar hot takes in this thread.

Yes, the people of Charleston and Oklahoma City went through a period of collective amnesia in 2018 where they forgot their party identification and blindly decided to vote for the Demonrat candidate. They'll have lost such a justification for voting blue in 2020, of course.

Anyway, my favorite fresh recruits of this cycle thus far: Roger Misso, Scott Cooper, Peter Khalil, Jon Hoadley, Elisa Cardnell, Adair Boroughs

[Politician]

New Jersey Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr. will announce next week that he will run against Freshman Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-NJ 7)
https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/kean-will-run-for-congress-against-malinowski/

HUUUGE get for House Republicans. A+ Candidate.

Inb4 Atlas declares this Safe D because 2016 trends

It's Lean/Likely D. Who are going to be these PresiDem voters voting against Malinowski? I just gotta know. Also, I see you've moved on from your IceSpear and OntarioProgressive obsession and are now obsessed with me.

I'm glad you realize that a Romney-Clinton district with an excellent GOP candidate that Guadagno and Hugin carried isn't Safe D.

[Roll Roons]

New Jersey Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr. will announce next week that he will run against Freshman Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-NJ 7)
https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/kean-will-run-for-congress-against-malinowski/

HUUUGE get for House Republicans. A+ Candidate.

Inb4 Atlas declares this Safe D because 2016 trends

It's Lean/Likely D. Who are going to be these PresiDem voters voting against Malinowski? I just gotta know. Also, I see you've moved on from your IceSpear and OntarioProgressive obsession and are now obsessed with me.

I'm glad you realize that a Romney-Clinton district with an excellent GOP candidate that Guadagno and Hugin carried isn't Safe D.

GUADAGNO carried that district? Yeah, I think that makes NJ-7 a tossup.

[Politician]

New Jersey Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr. will announce next week that he will run against Freshman Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-NJ 7)
https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/kean-will-run-for-congress-against-malinowski/

HUUUGE get for House Republicans. A+ Candidate.

Inb4 Atlas declares this Safe D because 2016 trends

It's Lean/Likely D. Who are going to be these PresiDem voters voting against Malinowski? I just gotta know. Also, I see you've moved on from your IceSpear and OntarioProgressive obsession and are now obsessed with me.

I'm glad you realize that a Romney-Clinton district with an excellent GOP candidate that Guadagno and Hugin carried isn't Safe D.

GUADAGNO carried that district? Yeah, I think that makes NJ-7 a tossup.

Yeah, and by nearly 7 points.

[lfromnj]

New Jersey Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr. will announce next week that he will run against Freshman Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-NJ 7)
https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/kean-will-run-for-congress-against-malinowski/

HUUUGE get for House Republicans. A+ Candidate.

Inb4 Atlas declares this Safe D because 2016 trends

It's Lean/Likely D. Who are going to be these PresiDem voters voting against Malinowski? I just gotta know. Also, I see you've moved on from your IceSpear and OntarioProgressive obsession and are now obsessed with me.

I'm glad you realize that a Romney-Clinton district with an excellent GOP candidate that Guadagno and Hugin carried isn't Safe D.

GUADAGNO carried that district? Yeah, I think that makes NJ-7 a tossup.

Yeah, and by nearly 7 points.

Implying the D federal floor is anything but Menendez's numbers of +5 Hugin,

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

How do Horn, McAdams, and Cunningham win again?  They're among my favorites of the new class so far.

Hope 2020 is a Democratic tsunami, because they're going to lose otherwise.

With how their districts are trending, Horn and McAdams certainly don’t need a "tsunami" to survive. A good year for Democrats? Maybe. A tsunami? No. Cunningham is probably the most vulnerable of the three, but then again I wouldn’t say he’s much more likely to lose than someone like Brindisi or Peterson.

Peterson, Cunningham, and Horn (also XTS, Rose, and Brindisi) are all gone in a close Presidential


SLC tends to be weird and sometimes votes Dem and Trump is unpopular in UT, so McAdams is the likeliest, by far, to survive of these

Max Rose's race is Tilt D at worst in a close Presidential race and with XTS, and Peterson, they'd be underdogs, but could easily end up winning re-election even with a close Presidential race.  Horn, Cunningham, and Brindisi are probably in trouble though without a damaged or non-A list opponent (especially Horn who seems like she was probably a fluke)

Staten Island is very Trumpy

Also Nicole Malliotakis, who is running, trounced deBlasio in Staten Island, she got over 70%, in 2017, bold prediction, Malliotakis wins Staten Island by at least 10 percentage points against Rose

There's actually a good bit of evidence to suggest voters on Staten Island aren't all that crazy about Trump anymore and Rose is a perfect fit for the district.  Also, crushing De Blasio on Staten Island isn't a particularly impressive accomplishment.

How come?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

How do Horn, McAdams, and Cunningham win again?  They're among my favorites of the new class so far.

Hope 2020 is a Democratic tsunami, because they're going to lose otherwise.

With how their districts are trending, Horn and McAdams certainly don’t need a "tsunami" to survive. A good year for Democrats? Maybe. A tsunami? No. Cunningham is probably the most vulnerable of the three, but then again I wouldn’t say he’s much more likely to lose than someone like Brindisi or Peterson.

Peterson, Cunningham, and Horn (also XTS, Rose, and Brindisi) are all gone in a close Presidential


SLC tends to be weird and sometimes votes Dem and Trump is unpopular in UT, so McAdams is the likeliest, by far, to survive of these

Max Rose's race is Tilt D at worst in a close Presidential race and with XTS, and Peterson, they'd be underdogs, but could easily end up winning re-election even with a close Presidential race.  Horn, Cunningham, and Brindisi are probably in trouble though without a damaged or non-A list opponent (especially Horn who seems like she was probably a fluke)

Staten Island is very Trumpy

Also Nicole Malliotakis, who is running, trounced deBlasio in Staten Island, she got over 70%, in 2017, bold prediction, Malliotakis wins Staten Island by at least 10 percentage points against Rose

There's actually a good bit of evidence to suggest voters on Staten Island aren't all that crazy about Trump anymore and Rose is a perfect fit for the district.  Also, crushing De Blasio on Staten Island isn't a particularly impressive accomplishment.

How come?

Cause Staten Island hates his guts

[Bidenworth2020]

How do Horn, McAdams, and Cunningham win again?  They're among my favorites of the new class so far.

Hope 2020 is a Democratic tsunami, because they're going to lose otherwise.

With how their districts are trending, Horn and McAdams certainly don’t need a "tsunami" to survive. A good year for Democrats? Maybe. A tsunami? No. Cunningham is probably the most vulnerable of the three, but then again I wouldn’t say he’s much more likely to lose than someone like Brindisi or Peterson.

Peterson, Cunningham, and Horn (also XTS, Rose, and Brindisi) are all gone in a close Presidential


SLC tends to be weird and sometimes votes Dem and Trump is unpopular in UT, so McAdams is the likeliest, by far, to survive of these

Max Rose's race is Tilt D at worst in a close Presidential race and with XTS, and Peterson, they'd be underdogs, but could easily end up winning re-election even with a close Presidential race.  Horn, Cunningham, and Brindisi are probably in trouble though without a damaged or non-A list opponent (especially Horn who seems like she was probably a fluke)

Staten Island is very Trumpy

Also Nicole Malliotakis, who is running, trounced deBlasio in Staten Island, she got over 70%, in 2017, bold prediction, Malliotakis wins Staten Island by at least 10 percentage points against Rose

There's actually a good bit of evidence to suggest voters on Staten Island aren't all that crazy about Trump anymore and Rose is a perfect fit for the district.  Also, crushing De Blasio on Staten Island isn't a particularly impressive accomplishment.

How come?

Cause Staten Island hates his guts

Hey, the feeling is mutual lol

[Bidenworth2020]

New Jersey Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr. will announce next week that he will run against Freshman Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-NJ 7)
https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/kean-will-run-for-congress-against-malinowski/

HUUUGE get for House Republicans. A+ Candidate.

Inb4 Atlas declares this Safe D because 2016 trends

It's Lean/Likely D. Who are going to be these PresiDem voters voting against Malinowski? I just gotta know. Also, I see you've moved on from your IceSpear and OntarioProgressive obsession and are now obsessed with me.

To be fair, I can fairly easily envision this type of voter with a local entity like Kean. I still think ing Malinowski wins, though.

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult, April 5-7

2020 GCB
Dems 45%
Reps 36%

Dems +9

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000016a-032b-dcb9-af7a-e7ff39760001

[lfromnj]

https://www.star-telegram.com/latest-news/article229013409.html

DCCC Texas polls on Marchant,Chip Roy, and Mccaul's district.
No actual polling on head to head vs generic D  which is good 2 years ahead.

Looks like Bustos is smartly making the idea of targetting Texas. Texas 23rd shouldn't be triaged unless it looks like the D's are already losing the house.

[Gass3268]

https://www.star-telegram.com/latest-news/article229013409.html

DCCC Texas polls on Marchant,Chip Roy, and Mccaul's district.
No actual polling on head to head vs generic D  which is good 2 years ahead.

Looks like Bustos is smartly making the idea of targetting Texas. Texas 23rd shouldn't be triaged unless it looks like the D's are already losing the house.

24 feels a lot like 7 and 32 did about a year out.

[Politician]

Apparently national R's are trying to recruit ALLEN WEST to run against Allred in TX-32:

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/elections-2020/2019/04/10/dallas-rep-colin-allred-raises-530k-2020-re-election-bid-could-gop-target-face

Several names have emerged as potential contenders against Allred. National Republicans have expressed interest in former Florida congressman Allen West, who now lives in North Texas, as well as former Irving Mayor Beth Van Duyne, a Trump appointee in the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. She's been mentioned as a possible successor to Rep. Kenny Marchant of Coppell.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Apparently national R's are trying to recruit ALLEN WEST to run against Allred in TX-32:

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/elections-2020/2019/04/10/dallas-rep-colin-allred-raises-530k-2020-re-election-bid-could-gop-target-face

Several names have emerged as potential contenders against Allred. National Republicans have expressed interest in former Florida congressman Allen West, who now lives in North Texas, as well as former Irving Mayor Beth Van Duyne, a Trump appointee in the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. She's been mentioned as a possible successor to Rep. Kenny Marchant of Coppell.

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/elections-2020/2019/04/10/dallas-rep-colin-allred-raises-530k-2020-re-election-bid-could-gop-target-face

Bring. It. On. Betas.

[S019]

Apparently national R's are trying to recruit ALLEN WEST to run against Allred in TX-32:

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/elections-2020/2019/04/10/dallas-rep-colin-allred-raises-530k-2020-re-election-bid-could-gop-target-face

Several names have emerged as potential contenders against Allred. National Republicans have expressed interest in former Florida congressman Allen West, who now lives in North Texas, as well as former Irving Mayor Beth Van Duyne, a Trump appointee in the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. She's been mentioned as a possible successor to Rep. Kenny Marchant of Coppell.

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/elections-2020/2019/04/10/dallas-rep-colin-allred-raises-530k-2020-re-election-bid-could-gop-target-face

Bring. It. On. Betas.

This is a disaster, recruiting a carpetbagger who lost in 2012, to someone who managed to lose by more than Clinton in 2016

They should just run Pete Sessions again

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Apparently national R's are trying to recruit ALLEN WEST to run against Allred in TX-32:

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/elections-2020/2019/04/10/dallas-rep-colin-allred-raises-530k-2020-re-election-bid-could-gop-target-face

Several names have emerged as potential contenders against Allred. National Republicans have expressed interest in former Florida congressman Allen West, who now lives in North Texas, as well as former Irving Mayor Beth Van Duyne, a Trump appointee in the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. She's been mentioned as a possible successor to Rep. Kenny Marchant of Coppell.

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/elections-2020/2019/04/10/dallas-rep-colin-allred-raises-530k-2020-re-election-bid-could-gop-target-face

Bring. It. On. Betas.

This is a disaster, recruiting a carpetbagger who lost in 2012, to someone who managed to lose by more than Clinton in 2016

They should just run Pete Sessions again

Go ahead and nominate Sessions again if you want, bring it on.

[lfromnj]

https://www.mdjonline.com/neighbor_newspapers/extra/news/feenstra-announces-raising-k-in-first-quarter-running-against-steve/article_d29174e4-8366-5b9b-aa9c-50d687c37bb1.html

Steve KKKings primary opponent raised 260k.

[S019]

Gary Peters raised $1.9 million in Q1 which is apparently a record for a Michigan Senate race. So at least he seems to be taking his race a little more seriously than Debbie Stabenow.

Peters is Bill Nelson esque (anonymous, could face a challenger with high name recognition) and I could see him underperform the Dem by 1-2

I think Trump will lose MI by 2-4, because it will actually be treated as a swing state

But if he faces a strong challenger like Dave Trott or John James, he can certainly underperform the Democrat

Currently, I view MI-SEN as Tossup/Tilt D

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Gary Peters raised $1.9 million in Q1 which is apparently a record for a Michigan Senate race. So at least he seems to be taking his race a little more seriously than Debbie Stabenow.

Peters is Bill Nelson esque (anonymous, could face a challenger with high name recognition) and I could see him underperform the Dem by 1-2

I think Trump will lose MI by 2-4, because it will actually be treated as a swing state

But if he faces a strong challenger like Dave Trott or John James, he can certainly underperform the Democrat

Currently, I view MI-SEN as Tossup/Tilt D

I now actually think James would edge it out, but I think Peters would still manage to defeat Trott.

[Roll Roons]

Peters is not comparable to Bill Nelson. He's managed to raise almost $2M in the first quarter - that indicates that he's taking this race seriously. Nelson slept until August/September 2018 because he thought Scott would be weak like Harris or Mack IV. Peters may be boring/anonymous, but you don't become the only Democrat in an twelve-person freshman Senate class without real political skills.

Michigan is also a lot kinder to Democrats than Florida, considering that there are NO statewide elected Republicans there (out of five positions), in comparison to Florida, where there is only one statewide Democrat (out of six). Agree that he's probably the second-most vulnerable Senate Democrat after Jones, but there is a HUGE gap between the two. Bear in mind that Republicans haven't won a Senate race in Michigan since the 1994 R wave, and that the Senator who won that year lost to Stabenow in 2000.

[Young Conservative]

Peters is not comparable to Bill Nelson. He's managed to raise almost $2M in the first quarter - that indicates that he's taking this race seriously. Nelson slept until August/September 2018 because he thought Scott would be weak like Harris or Mack IV. Peters may be boring/anonymous, but you don't become the only Democrat in an twelve-person freshman Senate class without real political skills.

Michigan is also a lot kinder to Democrats than Florida, considering that there are NO statewide elected Republicans there (out of five positions), in comparison to Florida, where there is only one statewide Democrat (out of six). Agree that he's probably the second-most vulnerable Senate Democrat after Jones, but there is a HUGE gap between the two. Bear in mind that Republicans haven't won a Senate race in Michigan since the 1994 R wave, and that the Senator who won that year lost to Stabenow in 2000.

Bill Nelson also raised 2 Million in Q1, and continued raising massive amounts (in addition to outside PACS). He had over 3.6 million on hand after Q1. Just saying, don't undervalue John James.