Official Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Discussion Thread

[Alcon]

I'm skeptical of the veracity of any report that describes Ardmore as "working class."

Moreover, how does he know who is getting support where?  Are they exit polling the precinct?

[Torie]

I'm skeptical of the veracity of any report that describes Ardmore as "working class."

Moreover, how does he know who is getting support where?  Are they exit polling the precinct?

They must be. I did a google map of the precinct. It is all middle to lower upper middle class single family housing. The rich folks live on the north side of Lancaster Ave, and this is just to the south.

[Alcon]

I'm skeptical of the veracity of any report that describes Ardmore as "working class."

Moreover, how does he know who is getting support where?  Are they exit polling the precinct?

They must be. I did a google map of the precinct. It is all middle to lower upper middle class single family housing. The rich folks live on the north side of Lancaster Ave, and this is just to the south.

Oh, OK.  I did read that there is a section of Ardmore that is split between working-class whites and blacks, and such a result doesn't seem surprising.  I thought this precinct was the entire CDP (or an approximation thereof).  That result doesn't sound especially troubling for Obama, but not good.

[Torie]

I'm skeptical of the veracity of any report that describes Ardmore as "working class."

Moreover, how does he know who is getting support where?  Are they exit polling the precinct?

They must be. I did a google map of the precinct. It is all middle to lower upper middle class single family housing. The rich folks live on the north side of Lancaster Ave, and this is just to the south.

Oh, OK.  I did read that there is a section of Ardmore that is split between working-class whites and blacks, and such a result doesn't seem surprising.  I thought this precinct was the entire CDP (or an approximation thereof).  That result doesn't sound especially troubling for Obama, but not good.

The precinct is  not working class, and I doubt many blacks live in it, but not sure about the latter.

[Alcon]

Actually, I just looked it up, and this is a precinct that contains upper-lower middle class areas to very affluent ones.  There is also a significant black population to the west and northwest, approaching 40% in some locales.  This is an area Obama should be performing well in.

I think we're reading a mite too much into this, though. 

Edit:  It is also, however, in an unusually elderly area.  It looks like well over a third of the precinct's population is over the age of 65.

[Torie]

Actually, I just looked it up, and this is a precinct that contains upper-lower middle class areas to very affluent ones.  There is also a significant black population to the west and northwest, approaching 40% in some locales.  This is an area Obama should be performing well in.

I think we're reading a mite too much into this, though. 

Edit:  It is also, however, in an unusually elderly area.  It looks like well over a third of the precinct's population is over the age of 65.

Where did you find all of that information as to one precinct?  Wow!  And it seems quite diverse for one little precinct. It must go north of Lancaster Ave.

[Alcon]

Actually, I just looked it up, and this is a precinct that contains upper-lower middle class areas to very affluent ones.  There is also a significant black population to the west and northwest, approaching 40% in some locales.  This is an area Obama should be performing well in.

I think we're reading a mite too much into this, though. 

Edit:  It is also, however, in an unusually elderly area.  It looks like well over a third of the precinct's population is over the age of 65.

Where did you find all of that information as to one precinct?  Wow!  And it seems quite diverse for one little precinct. It must go north of Lancaster Ave.

Well, it's a polling place, not a precinct, no?  So I assumed it contained several precincts, so I just looked at the areas south of the Lancaster Ave line.  The block groups right around the church have a median household income of about $47,000, are about 20% black, are more than half over the age of 45, and are about 35% over 65.  As you get further to the northwest, it becomes more black and more lower middle class.

If the polling place goes south of Wynnewood Road, or north of Lancaster Road, the demographic picture shifts sharply toward affluent, older whites.

I'm getting all this from the SocioEconomic Mapper.

[Tender Branson]

When will the official CNN exit poll be relased ? 1AM or 2AM ?

According to a dubious Thai source, Clinton leads an "exit poll" 55-45 ...

Link

Good night. I´m going to sleep. See you in 5 hours.

[Alcon]

When will the official CNN exit poll be relased ? 1AM or 2AM ?

According to a dubious Thai source, Clinton leads an "exit poll" 55-45 ...

Link

Good night. I´m going to sleep. See you in 5 hours.

An exit poll of exactly 1,000 people where the split is exactly 550-450?  Fictional.

[J. J.]

North Philadelphia PA-2

African American is low moderate.  94 voters by 1:50 PM.

SEIU is haphazardly doing the ground game in some precincts, with no ground game in others.

Some of the poll workers didn't realize that you had to vote for Obama delegates separately.

Not good news for Obama.

[Sam Spade]

What is a normal primary turnout?  What were you expecting (low, medium, high)?  What is GE turnout like?  How many registered Dems are there in this precinct total?

[Keystone Phil]

Hillary visited my friend's polling place (just a few minutes up the street from mine)! Could you imagine if she stopped at mine?  


Anyway, turnout is good. So far, about 140 total voters at my precinct (with maybe ten of them being Republicans) out of 530 registered Dems. Hillary is going to kick ass here. I found out my Dem committeeman definitley won't vote for Obama if he's the nominee.  

Things are also looking good in my race, too.  

[True Democrat]

Question about the Democratic primary:

Does the actual primary between Obama and Clinton count for delegates?  Or are the elected delegates the only thing that counts?

I was helping my mom vote, and I saw that she had to vote for Clinton or Obama, plus she had to vote for delegates and an alternate.

My ward and district (precinct I guess) had a Democratic turnout of I think 117 and 18 for the Republicans.  I asked the lady the total number of registered voters in each one, but she was old and couldn't answer.

[J. J.]

What is a normal primary turnout?  What were you expecting (low, medium, high)?  What is GE turnout like?  How many registered Dems are there in this precinct total?

The dividing line between heavy and light was 110 at 1:45 PM.  Huge is about 130.  Medium is about 90.  Very low would be about 40.

The precinct is about 95% Democrat, and 95% Black. 

This is not good news for Obama.

[Torie]

Alcon our little precinct is Lower Merion, Ward 8-4, and it is lollypopped shaped, with a circle next to Lancaster Ave, and then a long and narrow strip running down to the county line. The Strip is that 40% or more black area. Half of the circle is in the green zone, and half in the yellow zone which is higher income. Obama should be carrying this precinct by close to 2-1, I would think.

[Alcon]

Alcon our little precinct is Lower Merion, Ward 8-4, and it is lollypopped shaped, with a circle next to Lancaster Ave, and then a long and narrow strip running down to the county line. The Strip is that 40% or more black area. Half of the circle is in the green zone, and half in the yellow zone which is higher income. Obama should be carrying this precinct by close to 2-1, I would think.

He should.  All the anecdotal reports seem to be bad news for Obama.  Mid double digits doesn't seem all that implausible.

[Verily]

So how soon after 8PM will the networks call it for the Beast?

at the last possible moment.

Interesting.....I think it's going to be an early call, but it's the how much does she win by that's going to take all night.

Except for FOX, no one has called any race at close unless the exit polls showed more than a fifteen-point spread. Even FOX has waited for a while to call ten-point spreads.

I though MSNBC called NY for Hillary within 30 seconds?  No?

The exit polls showed more than a fifteen-point spread, too (around twenty points), and the result was a seventeen-point split.

[Sam Spade]

Alcon our little precinct is Lower Merion, Ward 8-4, and it is lollypopped shaped, with a circle next to Lancaster Ave, and then a long and narrow strip running down to the county line. The Strip is that 40% or more black area. Half of the circle is in the green zone, and half in the yellow zone which is higher income. Obama should be carrying this precinct by close to 2-1, I would think.

He should.  All the anecdotal reports seem to be bad news for Obama.  Mid double digits doesn't seem all that implausible.

Too early to say anything - if only these results were the final ones (and weren't more than anecdotal - they're splitting evenly garbage) - and we had about 100 precincts spread across the state - then we could say something..

[Sam Spade]

What is a normal primary turnout?  What were you expecting (low, medium, high)?  What is GE turnout like?  How many registered Dems are there in this precinct total?

The dividing line between heavy and light was 110 at 1:45 PM.  Huge is about 130.  Medium is about 90.  Very low would be about 40.

The precinct is about 95% Democrat, and 95% Black. 

This is not good news for Obama.

Let me ask one more question, and repeat one from earlier.

1) What is the normal % of the vote that has voted by 1:45 PM compared to final results (35-40-45 or something like that?)
2) How many registered Dems are there in the precinct?

[Mr. Morden]

When will the official CNN exit poll be relased ? 1AM or 2AM ?

According to a dubious Thai source, Clinton leads an "exit poll" 55-45 ...

Link

Good night. I´m going to sleep. See you in 5 hours.

It's too early for there to be real exit poll leaks.  We never get legit. exit poll leaks until after 5pm Eastern.

[Mr. Morden]

This site is tracking voting problems and the like:

http://www.electionjournal.org/

[Meeker]

I just read a report that some people are reporting precincts where Obama isn't on the ballot...

[Jake]

When I voted at 3:15 I was number 69 for the Republicans and the Democrats were up into the 30s. Keep in mind Republicans outnumber Democrats 2-1 in my ward.

[Verily]

What sort of Democrats (or Republicans, actually, that sounds like oddly high turnout) would be voting in your ward?

[Gustaf]

Alcon our little precinct is Lower Merion, Ward 8-4, and it is lollypopped shaped, with a circle next to Lancaster Ave, and then a long and narrow strip running down to the county line. The Strip is that 40% or more black area. Half of the circle is in the green zone, and half in the yellow zone which is higher income. Obama should be carrying this precinct by close to 2-1, I would think.

He should.  All the anecdotal reports seem to be bad news for Obama.  Mid double digits doesn't seem all that implausible.

Well, I tried to tell you what was going on. This is gonna be a landslide, folks.