Australia 2013 - Results thread

[Vosem]

ABC seems to be saying the Greens have won the second ACT Senate seat ...

And now it's back to the Liberals. It's been just a couple hundred votes separating Seselja from Sheikh, or Sheikh from Seselja, this whole time.

[jaichind]

What does 2PP look like? Will it be around 54-46?  Will the ALP defeat in terms of 2PP exceed 1996?

[RogueBeaver]

All I'll say about Rudd is "good riddance." About the next PM, il a gagné ses épaulettes.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

All I'll say about Rudd is "good riddance." About the next PM, il a gagné ses épaulettes.

I've been waiting for this day for a long time, well done Mr. Abbott and the Coalition!

[Vosem]

First Senate results from Victoria in. 3 Liberals, 2 ALP...and 1 Motoring Enthusiast Party!

[Antonio the Sixth]

So 91-55 is how it'll end?

[Platypus]

2PP will be about 52.8%

[Vosem]

Please, trust a Victorian - ignore Senate results until at least Wednesday

But they're so tantalizingly chaotic

Looks like Greenway is an ALP hold though - and WTF Fowler?

ABC has Greenway and Fowler as 'safe ALP retain'...

Look at the swing though

Oh, wow. Says something to the safety of the seat I just overlooked it.

And Bruce has been moved to 'in doubt ALP ahead', which makes a lot more sense...presumably the safe LIB gain was just a glitch.

And McEwen has been removed from the safe Coalition gains, too. So, seven (Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Lindsay, Lyons, Page, Robertson) so far (plus Lyne and New England)...

Banks and LaTrobe both called, 'safe LIB gain'. So nine total, since Lindsay is still at likely: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, LaTrobe, Lyons, Page, Robertson. Plus the two gains from independents.

Lindsay back to safe gain. 10 total ALP --> coalition seats: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, LaTrobe, Lindsay, Lyons, Page, Robertson. Plus the two gains from independents.

Kennedy and Melbourne are both 'in doubt 3rd party ahead' right now...Denison and Fairfax, though, are safe...

Hindmarsh and Lingiari both at safe gain -- both were predicted, but still kind of amazing results. 12 total ALP --> coalition seats: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, Hindmarsh, Lindsay, Lingiari, Lyons, Page, Robertson. Plus the two gains from independents.

And, heading back east to Sydney for a second, Reid is now a safe gain. So now Sydney has pretty much been entirely filled in (except Barton, that's still close; kind of amazing, it was thought of as reasonably safe ALP), since Greenway and Parramatta are rated 'safe ALP hold'. 13 total ALP --> coalition seats: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, Hindmarsh, Lindsay, Lingiari, Lyons, Page, Reid, Robertson.

And Reid seems to have been demoted to 'in doubt' from safe, so take it off that list; the number is back to 12.

And now Petrie has become 'safe LNP gain'; the first seat to switch between the major parties in Queensland. The 13 gains right now: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, Hindmarsh, Lindsay, Lingiari, Lyons, Page, Petrie, Robertson.

And Capricornia has become 'safe LNP gain' as well. 14 gains: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Capricornia, Corangamite, Deakin, Hindmarsh, Lindsay, Lingiari, Lyons, Page, Petrie, Robertson.

As has Dobell. 15 gains: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Capricornia, Corangamite, Deakin, Dobell, Hindmarsh, Lindsay, Lingiari, Lyons, Page, Petrie, Robertson.

Just 3 Coalition/ALP marginal seats still undecided: Barton, Eden-Monaro, and Reid. The ALP leads in the first two (E-M was actually called for the ALP, then taken back), while the Liberals are ahead in the last one. 16 seats flipping from the ALP to the Coalition, and 0 making the reverse move (though Fairfax and Indi being lost to a third party and an independent), seems like the most likely final number.

In the Senate, some real results from NSW: Sinodinos reelected, One Nation eliminated, though fairly late in the count -- and a Liberal Democratic Senator! Obviously this'll change 10 times before Senators take their seats, though.

[Senator Cris]

Fairfax?

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Fairfax?

Still undecided, Palmer leads 51.9-48.1 on 2PP terms.

[morgieb]

Fairfax?

Palmer looking good, but it depends on preferences, how strong will ALP/Greens/etc preferences be?

Similar case in Indi.

[Mr. Morden]

ABC's alternate universe reporting problem on the NSW and Victoria Senate results seems to be fixed.

I know it's too early to take these seriously, but just for fun, taking the preliminary Senate results from all states except WA (which isn't reporting enough votes yet for ABC to tell us anything), the nationwide net Senate changes from 2007 are:

PUP +2
Family First +1
Greens +1
LDP +1
Australian Motoring Enthusiasts Party +1 (lol?)

L/N Coalition -1
ALP -5

[tik 🪀✨]

on ABC they're going seat by seat

[Hifly]

Don Farrell made a big mistake allowing Penny Wong to take his number one spot on Labor's senate ticket. What a shame.

[Vosem]

First Senate results in from Western Australia: 3 Liberals, 1 ALP, 1 PUP, 1 Green. So, if current Senate projections are maintained (lol):

Coalition 33
ALP 25
Greens 10
PUP 3
DLP 1
LDP 1
FFP 1
AMEP 1
Nick Xenophon 1

EDIT: Also the call for the CLP in Lingiari seems to have been taken back...

[Smid]

Urgently need senate reform.

[Mr. Morden]

First Senate results in from Western Australia: 3 Liberals, 1 ALP, 1 PUP, 1 Green. So, if current Senate projections are maintained (lol):

Coalition 33
ALP 25
Greens 10
PUP 3
DLP 1
LDP 1
FFP 1
AMEP 1
Nick Xenophon 1

EDIT: Also the call for the CLP in Lingiari seems to have been taken back...

That would be a hilarious composition for the Senate.  Labor + Greens would no longer have a majority, and so the Coalition would constantly be dealing with these minor parties with one member each to get stuff passed.

What is the AMEP's platform anyway?

[RogueBeaver]

Hah, we're in the same boat! I believe Kelly, Kroger and PVO all suggesting raising the quota as a way to fix it. Something has to be done about the constellation of minor parties.

[Hifly]

It would be awesome if Louise Pratt is defeated! The ultimate payback for Wong taking Farrell's seat.

[Platypus]

My prediction wasn't fantastic. But hey, at least I called the LDP in NSW and the Motoring Enthusiasts in Victoria...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Wrt to Lingiari, always remember that the mobile booths tend to come in quite late. And that much of the swing seen in the Territory election had already happened federally. Way too early to call, and always was.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

BUT they have the Palmer votes going half-half, and I suspect they'll go more like 66-33. It'll be line-ball, but I reckon Mitchell's got up.

Could this be an issue in other close seats?

(I don't know the details of the counting set up as well as you).

[DC Al Fine]

Interesting that a libertarian will be in the senate. What's PUP all about?

[RogueBeaver]

Interesting that a libertarian will be in the senate. What's PUP all about?

PUP's a personality cult.

[Vosem]

Please, trust a Victorian - ignore Senate results until at least Wednesday

But they're so tantalizingly chaotic

Looks like Greenway is an ALP hold though - and WTF Fowler?

ABC has Greenway and Fowler as 'safe ALP retain'...

Look at the swing though

Oh, wow. Says something to the safety of the seat I just overlooked it.

And Bruce has been moved to 'in doubt ALP ahead', which makes a lot more sense...presumably the safe LIB gain was just a glitch.

And McEwen has been removed from the safe Coalition gains, too. So, seven (Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Lindsay, Lyons, Page, Robertson) so far (plus Lyne and New England)...

Banks and LaTrobe both called, 'safe LIB gain'. So nine total, since Lindsay is still at likely: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, LaTrobe, Lyons, Page, Robertson. Plus the two gains from independents.

Lindsay back to safe gain. 10 total ALP --> coalition seats: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, LaTrobe, Lindsay, Lyons, Page, Robertson. Plus the two gains from independents.

Kennedy and Melbourne are both 'in doubt 3rd party ahead' right now...Denison and Fairfax, though, are safe...

Hindmarsh and Lingiari both at safe gain -- both were predicted, but still kind of amazing results. 12 total ALP --> coalition seats: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, Hindmarsh, Lindsay, Lingiari, Lyons, Page, Robertson. Plus the two gains from independents.

And, heading back east to Sydney for a second, Reid is now a safe gain. So now Sydney has pretty much been entirely filled in (except Barton, that's still close; kind of amazing, it was thought of as reasonably safe ALP), since Greenway and Parramatta are rated 'safe ALP hold'. 13 total ALP --> coalition seats: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, Hindmarsh, Lindsay, Lingiari, Lyons, Page, Reid, Robertson.

And Reid seems to have been demoted to 'in doubt' from safe, so take it off that list; the number is back to 12.

And now Petrie has become 'safe LNP gain'; the first seat to switch between the major parties in Queensland. The 13 gains right now: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, Hindmarsh, Lindsay, Lingiari, Lyons, Page, Petrie, Robertson.

And Capricornia has become 'safe LNP gain' as well. 14 gains: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Capricornia, Corangamite, Deakin, Hindmarsh, Lindsay, Lingiari, Lyons, Page, Petrie, Robertson.

As has Dobell. 15 gains: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Capricornia, Corangamite, Deakin, Dobell, Hindmarsh, Lindsay, Lingiari, Lyons, Page, Petrie, Robertson.

Just 3 Coalition/ALP marginal seats still undecided: Barton, Eden-Monaro, and Reid. The ALP leads in the first two (E-M was actually called for the ALP, then taken back), while the Liberals are ahead in the last one. 16 seats flipping from the ALP to the Coalition, and 0 making the reverse move (though Fairfax and Indi being lost to a third party and an independent), seems like the most likely final number.

In the Senate, some real results from NSW: Sinodinos reelected, One Nation eliminated, though fairly late in the count -- and a Liberal Democratic Senator! Obviously this'll change 10 times before Senators take their seats, though.

And Eden-Monaro has now decided that it actually will continue its streak of backing the winning party. 16 gains: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Capricornia, Corangamite, Deakin, Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Hindmarsh, Lindsay, Lingiari, Lyons, Page, Petrie, Robertson.

Three Coalition/ALP marginals left: Barton, Lingiari, & Reid. But obviously a seat could be uncalled, that's turning into a bit of a pattern. The Coalition leads in Barton and Reid; the ALP is now actually ahead in Lingiari.