Favourite latest post by previous poster

[Potatoe]

Don't use them.  I enjoy this thing called silence.  You might want to try it sometime.

I have. I hated it.

[MadmanMotley]

On the Monkey Business Yacht, somewhere in 1985

"Oh hey there Miss, how are you?"

"I'm doing okay, 'bout you?"

"Oh crap, sorry, I have to go, my wife's called, bye"


CBS News Report, June 25 1988

"And we can confirm that Former Colorado Senator Gary Hart has entered the Democratic race for President, and when asked about his ambitions and goals, he said, quote, that he would provide the country with the healthcare it deserves, and that the nation's children would have proper education, end quote"


Events:Late 1987 (June to December)

• 1987-Gary Hart announces a Presidential run.

• 1987-Bill Bradley declines a Presidential run.

• 1987-Senator Ted Kennedy declines a run for the Presidency, but calls for President Reagen to resign, saying that he had "Broken the Constitution"

• 1987-The DOW Industrial Complex drops by 30 Points.

• 1987-President Reagen's approvals dart down by 3%

• 1987-After Justice Lewis Powell's retirement, President Reagen decides to put up California Governor George Deukmejian, who reluctantly accepts the appointment, the Senate is hesitant, though Deukmejian makes it through the Confirmation Hearings, the Senate is stuck at 50-50, with Democrats Ernest Hollings(D,SC), David Boren(D,OK), Richard Shelby(D,AL), Howard Heflin(D,AL), and Dennis DeConcini (D,AZ), with Republican Lowell Weicker voting against, VP Bush casts a tie breaking vote and Deukmejian narrowly makes it.

• 1987-Former Senator Birch Bayh declares that he will also run for the Presidency, saying "The Reagen stench of Corruption will be rectified under me"

• 1987-Maine Senator William Cohen declared that he will challenge sitting VP George H.W Bush for the Republican Nomination, saying in an interview that the "Republican Party has drifted way too far to the right", Cohen receives a bump in Michigan due to an endorsement from former President Ford.

• 1987-Evangelist Pat Robertson declares a run for the Presidency, saying that it is "God's Wish"

1987-Senator Bob Dole declines a challenge to Bush in the Republican Primary, instead giving Cohen an Endorsement.

• 1987-Rep. Dick Gephardt rules out a Presidential run

• 1987-Texas Governor Mark White declares a run for the Presidency, fellow Governor Michael Dukais endorses White in a press conference.

• 1987-Fmr. Senator Howard Baker endorses William Cohen.

• 1987-Senator Paul Simon declines a run for the Presidency and endorses Gary Hart

• 1987-Justice Sandra Day O'Conner declines a run for the Presidency, she does not endorse, saying "I don't wanna get messed up in this business"

• 1987-Rep. Jack Kemp endorses William Cohen, saying "He should be the future of the Party"

• 1987-Reverend Jesse Jackson launches his second campaign for President, repeating Robertson's line that it is "God's Wish"

• 1987-Senator Bradley commits a gaffe when he calls Former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld a "Slacking Vulture"

• 1987-Wall Street Crashes, with the DOW dropping 300 Points and unemployment rising to 8.6%, President Reagen's approval rating skidding down to 37/63.

[/center]

Thoughts so far?

[tik 🪀✨]

Joe Biden/Amy Klobuchar 285EV
Mike Huckabee/Rob Portman 253EV

Joe Biden/Kristen Gillibrand 260EV
Rand Paul/Brian Sandoval 278EV

Joe Biden/Cory Booker 299EV
Chris Christie/Marco Rubio 239EV

Joe Biden/Sherrod Brown 285EV
Jeb Bush/John Thune 253EV

Joe Biden/Evan Bayh 308EV
Paul Ryan/Bobby Jindal 230EV

Joe Biden/Amy Klobuchar 269EV
Scott Walker/Kelly Ayotte 269EV

[JerryArkansas]

Oh, to be that microphone!

[Potatoe]

Silver currently sees GOP with 70% chance of winning GASen. That's better than KY and tied with AR.

To say that Pryor is as likely to win as Nunn is ludicrous.

I also find this ludicrous.  I would say maybe that she has a 40 to 45% chance of winning.  Pryor is done for.  Nunn can still win, and I expect her to win, based on my rating for the race.

[Goldwater]

2012
After the impeachment of President Jefferson and VP Kasich, Speaker Goldwater was named President, he later selected former Sec. State Colin Powell, his economic policy marked a Libertarian turn for America between 2010-2012, known as the "Yellow Crush", though driving off Tea Party Candidates after coming out in support of Gay Marriage and Athiesm, Senator Ted Cruz (Appointed after the untimely death of John Cornyn in late 2009), challenged him from the right, he gained a lot of steam, winning his home state of Texas, Arizona, Nevada, and surprisingly, even Wisconsin, though Goldwater pulled through after Cruz's campaign was drained of funds after the resignation of Chief of Staff Steve Stockman, meanwhile, Governor Guntaker of Wisconsin, who defeated Scott Walker in a landslide of 56% to 43%, also famous for his stand against Gun Control, passing both a Hand Gun and assault Weapons ban in the space of 5 months, spoke up to run after his approvals were at 50%, he faced an uphill climb to defeat favorite for the nomination and 2008 runner up Mary Landreiu, but after Landreiu's campaign started imploding after a series of bad Debate performances, notable gaffes, and flip flopping on a number of issues, she pulled out of the race to fundraise with Senate Candidates, allowing Guntaker to narrowly snatch Iowa, followed by a .2% win over Senator Liz Warren (Beat Brown in 2010), who then pulled out herself, Guntaker found himself waltzing to the nomination, but with troubles from the Religious/Evangelical Democrats, who took issue with his Social Liberalism and being an Athiest, he soothed the worries by picking Rep. Scott from Arkansas, an outspoken Religious Moderate, Guntaker's road to beating Goldwater was set, in the Debates, Guntaker tied with Goldwater on Economic Issues, but made gaffes when it came to Social Issues, not wanting to offend the Religious right, but he pulled through in the second and third, due to Goldwater being tied up and stressed after visiting former President Jefferson in Illinois, in the end, 2012 would go down as one of the most exciting races in history.

Gov. Guntaker(D,WI)/Rep. Scott(D,AR):347 EV, 52%

Pres. Goldwater(R,WA)/VP Colin Powell(R,NY):191 EV, 46%

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why are people such big fans of NJ? It may vote Democratic, but it is about as corrupt as Illinois (with none of the charm) and has the Trump Taj Mahal.

It's the only state on this list that doesn't belong to the sprawling, wasteful, unsustainable hellscapes of the Sun Belt and that isn't also located within the Bible Belt.

^^^^

I can think of a number of red states I would rank above NJ (Alaska!), but none of them are on this list.

Ugh. Why does this forum love the cold so much?

[traininthedistance]

It would be really weird for Poland to be on the winning side of a partition...

[Potatoe]

HO (Catholic)

Fun Fact: William Wirt, onetime US Attorney General and the Anti-Masonic Party's candidate for president in 1832, was a Freemason himself.

Huh?

The Anti-Masonic Party was functionally an anti-Jacksonian outfit more than anything, and the Mason panic was a tie-in to some contemporaneous silliness in the Burned-Over district, plus the fact that Jackson was a Mason and that was thus a good line of attack to "other" him.

Wirt in fact gave a speech at the convention where he basically said "Masons are pretty okay people".  What IndyTX says is true, and is in fact one of of my favorite wacky factoids from that era.

[JerryArkansas]

2012
After the impeachment of President Jefferson and VP Kasich, Speaker Goldwater was named President, he later selected former Sec. State Colin Powell, his economic policy marked a Libertarian turn for America between 2010-2012, known as the "Yellow Crush", though driving off Tea Party Candidates after coming out in support of Gay Marriage and Athiesm, Senator Ted Cruz (Appointed after the untimely death of John Cornyn in late 2009), challenged him from the right, he gained a lot of steam, winning his home state of Texas, Arizona, Nevada, and surprisingly, even Wisconsin, though Goldwater pulled through after Cruz's campaign was drained of funds after the resignation of Chief of Staff Steve Stockman, meanwhile, Governor Guntaker of Wisconsin, who defeated Scott Walker in a landslide of 56% to 43%, also famous for his stand against Gun Control, passing both a Hand Gun and assault Weapons ban in the space of 5 months, spoke up to run after his approvals were at 50%, he faced an uphill climb to defeat favorite for the nomination and 2008 runner up Mary Landreiu, but after Landreiu's campaign started imploding after a series of bad Debate performances, notable gaffes, and flip flopping on a number of issues, she pulled out of the race to fundraise with Senate Candidates, allowing Guntaker to narrowly snatch Iowa, followed by a .2% win over Senator Liz Warren (Beat Brown in 2010), who then pulled out herself, Guntaker found himself waltzing to the nomination, but with troubles from the Religious/Evangelical Democrats, who took issue with his Social Liberalism and being an Athiest, he soothed the worries by picking Rep. Scott from Arkansas, an outspoken Religious Moderate, Guntaker's road to beating Goldwater was set, in the Debates, Guntaker tied with Goldwater on Economic Issues, but made gaffes when it came to Social Issues, not wanting to offend the Religious right, but he pulled through in the second and third, due to Goldwater being tied up and stressed after visiting former President Jefferson in Illinois, in the end, 2012 would go down as one of the most exciting races in history.

Gov. Guntaker(D,WI)/Rep. Scott(D,AR):347 EV, 52%

Pres. Goldwater(R,WA)/VP Colin Powell(R,NY):191 EV, 46%

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Arkansas:



8: 71.8% McCain, 25.4% Obama
16: 62.5% McCain, 35.1% Obama
17: 61.4% McCain, 36.7% Obama
18: 67.3% McCain, 29.4% Obama
19: 55.8% McCain, 41.6% Obama
21: 67.1% McCain, 30.0% Obama
22: 59.7% Obama, 38.8% McCain
24: 62.1% McCain, 35.3% Obama
29: 64.5% McCain, 32.5% Obama
30: 68.9% McCain, 27.8% Obama
31: 63.9% McCain, 32.4% Obama
32: 66.3% McCain, 30.3% Obama
33: 63.7% McCain, 33.1% Obama
34: 58.1% McCain, 37.7% Obama
35: 64.9% McCain, 32.0% Obama

Northwest Close-Up:



1: 68.5% McCain, 29.4% Obama
2: 63.6% McCain, 34.1% Obama
3: 68.4% McCain, 29.7% Obama
4: 53.0% Obama, 45.1% McCain
5: 64.3% McCain, 33.6% Obama
6: 69.8% McCain, 27.2% Obama
7: 61.0% McCain, 37.1% Obama

Little Rock Inner Close-Up:



9: 79.8% Obama, 18.8% McCain
10: 72.3% Obama, 26.5% McCain
11: 50.8% McCain, 47.7% Obama
12: 61.6% McCain, 36.7% Obama
13: 64.1% McCain, 33.9% Obama
27: 56.6% McCain, 41.5% Obama

Little Rock Outer Close-Up:



14: 60.7% McCain, 37.0% Obama
15: 62.5% Obama, 35.4% McCain
20: 66.7% McCain, 31.3% Obama
25: 75.6% McCain, 22.2% Obama

Northeast Close-Up:



23: 52.0% Obama, 45.9% McCain
26: 60.5% McCain, 37.2% Obama
28: 60.2% McCain, 36.6% Obama

I'll let Jerry assess this.

All districts bolded I would expect to be won by the democratic candidate.  That would bring the partisan breakdown to 19/16 Democratic.  Districts I have labeled in Brown will by 2020 become competitive due to Hispanic growth.  I expect that map makers in 2020 will have to draw a Hispanic Majority Senate district and 2 House districts by then due to the growth.

[SWE]

Idaho has cities?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Did I miss something? Why the Schumer hate?

Rank and file liberal Democrat, fairly senior. So, FF. I know the NRA utterly hates him, so FF again.

He voted for the Iraq war, PATRIOT act, supports Iran sanctions, supported involvement in Syria, supports NSA spying, and supported SOPA. He's not a rank and file liberal.

Bonus points because my friend and I were just discussing how much of a "dick sandwich" (in his words) Schumer is, both personally and politically.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

The only people who don't believe in entitlements on some level are Social Darwinists. Their number is negligible and they are stupid.

[Lief 🗽]

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh, the POS old racist who sold this country out to his corporate masters?  Garbage person and garbage President. 

He wasn't racist. He was one of the first presidents not to be racist.

He literally made a speech about states rights next to the site where civil rights activists were murdered in the 1960s. He was a racist piece of sh[ink]s and his policies were as well.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

It would be really weird for Poland to be on the winning side of a partition...

[Goldwater]

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

[SWE]

Fascist dictator=HP.

[TDAS04]

The only thing this poll and commentary show is the extreme leftist bias on this forum.

I agree, what sort of extreme leftist would consider someone guilty of high treason, who took Saddam Hussein off of the international terrorists list, and helped create the Taliban, anything other than a fantastic president

[Goldwater]

New Jersey, which should not have gotten a horrible state majority.

I also voted FS for South Carolina.  I don't feel that strongly, but if Georgia is a freedom state, I don't see why South Carolina is not.

What I don't understand is Georgia is an even more deep south state than South Carolina, but instead they voted HS when the only two border states got voted at least 2:1 FS. Is South Carolina just a bastion of awfulness? Or was it judged based more on stereotypes and the fact that it didn't have a major liberal city/area and was more conservative than the other two? I say the latter.

Maybe because it was the first to secede?  I don't know.  I'd rate South Carolina at least as high as Georgia, one reason being the longer coastline, and that Atlanta isn't that great of a metro.

Still, it's understandable why North Carolina would receive higher approval than either.

[Potatoe]

As awful as the ideology it promotes.

Yeah, freedom really sucks doesn't it?

I'm glad you admit to hating freedom, TNF.

[SWE]

If the Repub Senate is as big government as her of course.

I don't get it, are you calling her fat or something?

[Sol]

Honestly, I think Manchin would be more likely to run as a Republican..

His voting record would suggest he'd run as a socialist before he runs as a republican