Mexico June 7th 2015 elections

[jaichind]

Well, Russian reporting is hardly model

Mexico's problem with reporting relevant info is nothing new. If you recall, in 2006 PREP there was no report on the number of problem casillas. Therefore, PREP was saying 98%, but the numbers really came from 93%. This was picked up by AMLO as evidence of some sort of fraud. Only by comparing with the PREP results reported by the Nuevo Leon electoral institutes one could figure this out. These days they have the annotation in the federal reporting as well. But most of the time federal reporting is, actually, better. 3 years ago electoral institute of Baja Calirofnia was simply reporting ridiculous percentages throughout the night because they were unable to figure out the formula for computing percentages in Excel right I am not joking: the vote numbers were correct, but percentages went haywire. In a semi-numerate country this is what happens (and, unlike in India, in Mexico problems with numeracy extend to the elite). Then, again, in other countries the journalists would have calculated PT share before setting the headlines. At least, INE itself has its numbers straight.

Yes, even this year I think the % reported is wrong.  The last known PREP this year claims that 98.63% reported.  But if ones goes in state by state to see how many has report it is clear 98.63% is not accurate and that it more like 93%.  I think toward the end 98.63% was computed with a different denominator, like the number of precincts that claimed they can report in on time and not the total number of precincts.  I have no idea what it is but the % was clearly wrong.  

[ag]

Even as these results are coming in there is very little results from OAXACA and this is almost 3 days after the voting is done.  There must be major problems over there.  The only place worse than this that I am aware of, and I am sure OAXACA does not want to be lump in with this place, is Westchester County where I live where one can go weeks before the vote count is done and results concluded.

32.34% of precincts in the state have reported. In fact, in most places it is higher. But district 11 has not reported even the number of precincts they installed. Probably, election could not be held there. I will try to find out.

[ag]

Even as these results are coming in there is very little results from OAXACA and this is almost 3 days after the voting is done.  There must be major problems over there.  The only place worse than this that I am aware of, and I am sure OAXACA does not want to be lump in with this place, is Westchester County where I live where one can go weeks before the vote count is done and results concluded.

32.34% of precincts in the state have reported. In fact, in most places it is higher. But district 11 has not reported even the number of precincts they installed. Probably, election could not be held there. I will try to find out.

On election day there was a report that this was the only district council not in session by a certain moment in the morning. Need to figure out more.

[ag]

Seems like "the teachers" burnt at least 73 (and as many as 157) out of the 186 balot boxes in the district. Basically, there was not election there.

[ag]

Well, Russian reporting is hardly model

Mexico's problem with reporting relevant info is nothing new. If you recall, in 2006 PREP there was no report on the number of problem casillas. Therefore, PREP was saying 98%, but the numbers really came from 93%. This was picked up by AMLO as evidence of some sort of fraud. Only by comparing with the PREP results reported by the Nuevo Leon electoral institutes one could figure this out. These days they have the annotation in the federal reporting as well. But most of the time federal reporting is, actually, better. 3 years ago electoral institute of Baja Calirofnia was simply reporting ridiculous percentages throughout the night because they were unable to figure out the formula for computing percentages in Excel right I am not joking: the vote numbers were correct, but percentages went haywire. In a semi-numerate country this is what happens (and, unlike in India, in Mexico problems with numeracy extend to the elite). Then, again, in other countries the journalists would have calculated PT share before setting the headlines. At least, INE itself has its numbers straight.

Yes, even this year I think the % reported is wrong.  The last known PREP this year claims that 98.63% reported.  But if ones goes in state by state to see how many has report it is clear 98.63% is not accurate and that it more like 93%.  I think toward the end 98.63% was computed with a different denominator, like the number of precincts that claimed they can report in on time and not the total number of precincts.  I have no idea what it is but the % was clearly wrong.  

If you read further down the page, you will discover that the numbers correspond to 93.19% of the precincts Basically, there are about 6,000 precincts which submitted the actas into PREP by the deadline, but the actas had irregularities (numbers were illegible, or did not add up, or whatever). So, they are recorded as submitted, but not added into the totals. This year that info is explicit on PREP. In 2006 it was not.

[ag]

45.13% reporting. PT on 2.88% of the total - 3.03% of valid.

[jaichind]

Real count 45.13% in

This is pretty slow.  Looks like this will drag out to late tonight.  Sigh.

Vote share

PAN          21.16
PRI           30.35
PRD          10.03
PVEM          7.27
PT               2.88
MC              6.19
PANAL         3.87
Morena        7.82
PH              2.05
PES            3.09
Ind             0.57
Other          0.12
Null            4.53

[ag]

Real count 45.13% in

This is pretty slow.  Looks like this will drag out to late tonight.  Sigh.

Always does. In fact, it will even be slower. They tend to first quickly add up the undisputed precincts, and then debate - and, possibly, actually recount - those where there are disputes.

[ag]

With 49.25% reporting, PT is on 3.003596% of the valid vote!

[ag]

And with 50.29% reporting PT is down to 2.996676%

[ag]

51.38% reporting. PT is down to 2.990251%

[ag]

PT continues its descent.

52.48% reporting, PT at 2.985796%

[jaichind]

Real count 56.73% in

Vote share

PAN          21.01
PRI           30.18
PRD          10.16
PVEM          7.30
PT               2.84
MC              6.32
PANAL         3.81
Morena        7.88
PH              2.06
PES            3.13
Ind             0.58
Other          0.12
Null            4.55

PT effective vote is 2.84/(1-.0012-.0455) = 2.979125

PRI+PVEM = 37.48

PRI+PVEM PR share = 37.48/(1-.0216-.0284-.0058-.0012-.0455) = 41.760446 if PT out
                                                      ->  49.760446 of seats
                               = 37.48/(1-.0216-.0058-.0012-.0455) = 40.479533 if PT in
                                                      ->  48.479533 of seats

My sense is that PT will make it.  When PREP closed and when one looked at where results were not counted toward the total yet, PT all things equal over-perform in those areas in relative terms.

[ag]

With 58.86% reporting, PT is still, slowly, going down: 2.978953%

[ag]

I never thought I would be hoping for a PT improvement

[jaichind]

Real count 64.44% in

Vote share

PAN          20.94
PRI           30.02
PRD          10.32
PVEM          7.24
PT               2.83
MC              6.28
PANAL         3.80
Morena        7.98
PH              2.07
PES            3.17
Ind             0.59
Other          0.12
Null            4.58

PT effective vote is 2.83/(1-.0012-.0458) = 2.969570

PRI+PVEM = 37.26

PRI+PVEM PR share = 37.26/(1-.0207-.0283-.0059-.0012-.0458) = 41.487585 if PT out
                                                      ->  49.487585 of seats
                               = 37.26/(1-.0207-.0059-.0012-.0458) = 40.220207 if PT in
                                                      ->  48.220207 of seats

[jaichind]

Using simple extrapolation of results by state and then normalizing one gets PT is on track to get 2.85% which I think make them barely miss the 3%.  PT has to hope the remaining votes are more friendly than what has been counted.

[ag]

Using simple extrapolation of results by state and then normalizing one gets PT is on track to get 2.85% which I think make them barely miss the 3%.  PT has to hope the remaining votes are more friendly than what has been counted.

The way it is going, it will wind up in the courts. PT lawyers will be going to try to annul as many precincts with below average PT vote share as they can. There may also be recounts.

Poor Lorenzo!

[ag]

With 65.27% repoting PT is at 2.973385% - a slight rebound.

[jaichind]

Now extrapolation method I use at 66.69% gets PT at 2.844%  Its getting worse for PT.

[jaichind]

Real count 67.41% in

Vote share

PAN          20.93
PRI           29.95
PRD          10.38
PVEM          7.19
PT               2.83
MC              6.26
PANAL         3.79
Morena        8.04
PH              2.08
PES            3.18
Ind             0.59
Other          0.12
Null            4.60

PT effective vote is 2.83/(1-.0012-.0460) = 2.970193

PRI+PVEM = 37.14

PRI+PVEM PR share = 37.14/(1-.0208-.0283-.0059-.0012-.0460) = 41.367788 if PT out
                                                      ->  49.367788 of seats
                               = 37.14/(1-.0208-.0059-.0012-.0460) = 40.103661 if PT in
                                                      ->  48.103661 of seats

[jaichind]

Now extrapolation method I use at 67.41% counted gets PT at 2.846%.  Slight come back.

[ag]

I get PT share to be 2.976412%. With numbers like this, it is better to deal with vote totals, not rounded percentages

[jaichind]

I get PT share to be 2.976412%. With numbers like this, it is better to deal with vote totals, not rounded percentages

Good point.

[ag]

I get PT share to be 2.976412%. With numbers like this, it is better to deal with vote totals, not rounded percentages

Good point.

I mean, this is the first time in a long time one should care about thousandths of a percentage point