Canada 2008: Official Thread

[MaxQue]

Nanos Canada

CPC: 37 (+1)
LPC: 26 (0)
NDP: 20 (0)
BQ: 10 (+1)
GPC: 8 (-1)

Nanos Quebec

BQ: 39 (0)
CPC: 26 (+4)
LPC: 18 (-2)
NDP: 12 (+1)
GPC: 5 (-3)

EKOS Canada

CPC: 34 (0)
LPC: 27 (+1)
NDP: 19 (-1)
GPC: 10 (0)
BQ: 9 (-1)

EKOS Quebec

BQ: 37 (-1)
CPC: 21 (-1)
LPC: 19 (+1)
NDP: 16 (+2)
GPC: 7 (-1)

Harris-Decima Canada

CPC: 36 (0)
LPC: 26 (0)
NDP: 18 (-1)
GPC: 11 (+2)
BQ: 9 (+1)

Harris-Decima Quebec

BQ: 37 (+2)
CPC: 27 (+2)
LPC: 18 (-3)
NDP: 12 (-1)
GPC: 5 (0)

Nanos Atlantic Canada

CPC: 33
NDP: 31
LPC: 30
GPC: 7

Very tight.

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow @ Atlantic #'s. The NDP must be killing in Nova Scotia.

[Hash]

Note the MoE and subsample in the Atlantic.

I never put too much stock in Atlantic polling.

IIRC, two days ago the NDP was in the high teens in the Atlantic.

[MaxQue]

Wow @ Atlantic #'s. The NDP must be killing in Nova Scotia.

And St John's

[The Vorlon]

Wow @ Atlantic #'s. The NDP must be killing in Nova Scotia.

Nano's sample size in the Atlantic is about 100 voters over 3 days.. making the one day sample about 33 people.....

The margin of errror is thus about 17% for a daily sample....  You can "kinda sorta maybe" get a snapshot of what is happening in Atlantic Canada by lookng at the trend lines but the sample is so small as to be pretty much useless.

The NDP jumped 9% in one day, meaning the sample that rolled off was 25-30% worse than the sample that rolled on.. does a 25-30% shift in 3 days seem sane?

Lookng at the trendlines it "appears" the Grits and the Tories are pretty close with the NDP 3rd but gaining....

Anything beyond that is anybody's guess with a rolling sample of just 100 people....

[Hash]

For the people who get hyper over Atlantic polling, here's your poll for today.

Liberal 34 (+4)
NDP 33 (+2)
Conservative 25 (-8)
Greenies 8 (+1)

[Verily]

For the people who get hyper over Atlantic polling, here's your poll for today.

Liberal 34 (+4)
NDP 33 (+2)
Conservative 25 (-8)
Greenies 8 (+1)

OMG Conservative wipeout, NDP gain Fundy Royal.

[Hatman 🍁]

lolz NDP sweep Nova Scotia

[Хahar 🤔]

lolz NDP sweep Nova Scotia

If only.

[Hash]

Decided to watch the debate in 20 minutes.

[Verily]

Decided to watch the debate in 20 minutes.

Tell us non-Francophones how it goes

[Verily]

Not quite relevant, but it can't help the NDP's efforts to hold on to Parkdale-High Park federally:

http://www.canada.com/ottawacitizen/news/story.html?id=287696af-bccd-44fe-9551-2d58665ea538

LOL.

[2952-0-0]

I watched a part of the French debate.

Basically everyone took turns ripping into Steve, and comparatively little time was spent by the opposition parties bashing each other.

Whoever wins, it sure isn't Steve.

[Verily]

Word seems to be that Harper lost. Dion was more forceful than would be expected, but this was the easier of the two debates for him. Duceppe was on top debating form as usual as well, but Layton, while he did well, was not up to his usual debating strength. May, whose French skills were considered questionable prior, also beat expectations.

In order of performance, based both on expectations and success:

Dion
Duceppe
May
Layton
Harper

As one might expect, the native Francophones come out on top. But Harper was the only one who really didn't do well.

This is just what I'm gleaning from discussion online. Feel free to contradict me.

[Хahar 🤔]

No transcript online.

[cp]

Yowzah,

How was there 10 pages of discussion in three days? I really shouldn't be focusing on schoolwork at a time like this

Sadly the debates started at 2am for me so I didn't get to watch them. I must say I'm pleased that the general consensus is that Dion came out on top. I'm almost certain he won't do so tomorrow, but at least then Elizabeth May will be at her best.

[Hash]

I watched the debate in its entirety. I'd say Dion and Duceppe tied for first, maybe Dion narrowly winning. I felt Duceppe repeated some of his points two or three times, for example on blaming Steve of being close to big oil. May had guts to take on this debate with her poor language skills, so she did quite well considering the circumstances. Layton did alright, I guess, but Harper is last.

He failed to respond well to attacks and he took an annoying father-like tone. He never did any body language except smile and talked in a low volume. I guess if you insulted him, he'd smile and act like a robot who's also deaf. And goddamn it, it's annoying when he calls everybody by their first names.

[Hash]

For the people who get hyper over Atlantic polling, here's your poll for today.

Liberal 34 (+4)
NDP 33 (+2)
Conservative 25 (-8)
Greenies 8 (+1)

Liberal 41 (+6)
NDP 29 (-4)
Conservative 21 (-4)
Greenies 9 (+1)

[MaxQue]

Nanos Canada

CPC: 37 (+1)
LPC: 26 (0)
NDP: 19 (-1)
BQ: 10 (0)
GPC: 8 (-1)

Nanos Quebec

BQ: 42 (+1)
CPC: 24 (-2)
LPC: 17 (+2)
NDP: 12 (-1)
GPC: 5 (-1)

EKOS Canada

CPC: 34 (0)
LPC: 25 (0)
NDP: 19 (-1)
GPC: 11 (0)
BQ: 10 (0)

EKOS Quebec

BQ: 40 (0)
CPC: 21 (+1)
LPC: 19 (0)
NDP: 13 (-1)
GPC: 8 (0)

Harris-Decima Canada

CPC: 36 (0)
LPC: 23 (-3)
NDP: 18 (0)
GPC: 12 (+1)
BQ: 9 (0)

Harris-Decima Quebec

BQ: 37 (0)
CPC: 27 (0)
LPC: 17 (-1)
NDP: 11 (-1)
GPC: 6 (+1)

[Hatman 🍁]

I was waiting for the NDP to drop down to 19 again.

[Hash]

I was waiting for the NDP to drop down to 19 again.

Today's tracking polls are all indicating a minor drop for the NDP from 20ish to 18-19. Still within the MoE IIRC.

[Hatman 🍁]

Apparently Jack Layton's bus was following my room mate on his way to class today. I guess he made a stop on campus I was busy assembling signs for the Ottawa South candidate and photocopying voters lists for the candidate to canvass.

I'm going to watch the debate tonight at an NDP rally in a bar on Elgin St. Should be fun

[Hash]

I'm watching Palin-Biden myself. I'll see the debate tomorrow on the interwebs.

[Hatman 🍁]

Fun night watching the debates. I didn't really hear much of it, as it was too noisy in there. Jack stopped by afterwards, and I got to shake his hand (twice!). He said to me "thank you for being here!". Afterwards, I biked home, and I noticed down the street the Greens were having there debate party, and I saw Elizabeth May. I promptly booed her and kept biking. lol

[Хahar 🤔]

Can somebody give a link?