Irish general election: 25 February 2011

[Јas]

Which I think should give an overall prediction *get your buckets of salt ready* of something like:
73 Fine Gael
38 Labour
26 Fianna Fáil
16 Sinn Féin
  6 United Left Alliance
  7 Independents
  0 Greens

which looks instinctively wrong. Anyway, I guess we'll how wrong soon enough.

[patrick1]

Which I think should give an overall prediction *get your buckets of salt ready* of something like:
73 Fine Gael
38 Labour
26 Fianna Fáil
16 Sinn Féin
  6 United Left Alliance
  7 Independents
  0 Greens

which looks instinctively wrong. Anyway, I guess we'll how wrong soon enough.

Thanks for the posts, Jas.

A lot of people seem to be calling for slightly more FG and Ind seats than that- which would give them a lot easier chance to govern without Labour.  It should be interesting.

[minionofmidas]

Ha, there's probably going to be some pretty sad people in Dublin once the Irish hero Gadaffi falls. If I lived in Massachusetts I'd love to observe the reaction in South Boston.

Has Sinn Fein issued any statements yet about how much of a glorious freedom fighter he is?

A representation of this post.

When it comes to these matters BRTD is either dumb, a troll or a dumb troll. Not sure what.

It is frightfully hard to explain to Protestants that if you give Roman Catholics a good job and a good house they will live like Protestants because they will see neighbours with cars and television sets; they will refuse to have eighteen children. But if a Roman Catholic is jobless, and lives in the most ghastly hovel he will rear eighteen children on National Assistance. If you treat Roman Catholics with due consideration and kindness they will live like Protestants in spite of the authoritative nature of their Church.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've always loved the fact that he actually said 'frightfully'.

[Јas]

I see the exit poll is being announced at 8am. Is there a particular reason why Ireland doesn't make people stay up into the wee hours to learn who's going to govern the country? I know NI used to do it.

Counting transfers in an STV system takes too long. If they did it overnight, they wouldn't have any results until 4 am or so anyway.

So there is no point in watching television coverage of election night?

I think last time they announced the first count and then went to bed (might be remembering that wrong), but I think all counting is happening the next morning this time.

In 2002, a test with electronic voting in 3 constituencies was done - those counts were done pretty much immediately after polls closed.

Other than that, we've always stuck with counting the day after (and the day after that).

Counts will begin at 9a.m. It'll probably be a couple of hours before a reasonable idea of what's going on emerges.

[Јas]

Which I think should give an overall prediction *get your buckets of salt ready* of something like:
73 Fine Gael
38 Labour
26 Fianna Fáil
16 Sinn Féin
  6 United Left Alliance
  7 Independents
  0 Greens

which looks instinctively wrong. Anyway, I guess we'll how wrong soon enough.

Thanks for the posts, Jas.

A lot of people seem to be calling for slightly more FG and Ind seats than that- which would give them a lot easier chance to govern without Labour.  It should be interesting.

Yeah, I also seem to be more favourable to SF than most.
I rushed through Dublin a bit - might review things.

[Silent Hunter]

I see the exit poll is being announced at 8am. Is there a particular reason why Ireland doesn't make people stay up into the wee hours to learn who's going to govern the country? I know NI used to do it.

Counting transfers in an STV system takes too long. If they did it overnight, they wouldn't have any results until 4 am or so anyway.

So there is no point in watching television coverage of election night?

I think last time they announced the first count and then went to bed (might be remembering that wrong), but I think all counting is happening the next morning this time.

In 2002, a test with electronic voting in 3 constituencies was done - those counts were done pretty much immediately after polls closed.

Other than that, we've always stuck with counting the day after (and the day after that).

Counts will begin at 9a.m. It'll probably be a couple of hours before a reasonable idea of what's going on emerges.

Personally, I used to think the NI reason was to avoid drunken sectarian fights...

[minionofmidas]

"I'm glad to see the back of the Green Party. They have destroyed Fianna Fáil and we should never have gone into government with them." Pat Fitzgerald, FF candidate in Wicklow

You what, Pat? Greens caused the bubble to burst?

[patrick1]

Which I think should give an overall prediction *get your buckets of salt ready* of something like:
73 Fine Gael
38 Labour
26 Fianna Fáil
16 Sinn Féin
  6 United Left Alliance
  7 Independents
  0 Greens

which looks instinctively wrong. Anyway, I guess we'll how wrong soon enough.

Thanks for the posts, Jas.

A lot of people seem to be calling for slightly more FG and Ind seats than that- which would give them a lot easier chance to govern without Labour.  It should be interesting.

Yeah, I also seem to be more favourable to SF than most.
I rushed through Dublin a bit - might review things.

Yeah, I think SF would be delighted with 16. As long as they get over 7 and speaking rights is the minimum goal, but in this political climate I think it would be a failure if they dont get to at least 12 or 13.

Lewis, regarding your quote. He is a FF voter still- you have to expect  a certain amount of built in delusional thought.

[Kevinstat]

Which I think should give an overall prediction *get your buckets of salt ready* of something like:
73 Fine Gael
38 Labour
26 Fianna Fáil
16 Sinn Féin
  6 United Left Alliance
  7 Independents
  0 Greens

which looks instinctively wrong. Anyway, I guess we'll how wrong soon enough.

How many seats would SF probably need to win to have 20 seats in the Oireachtas (Dáil Éireann + Seanad Éireann) once the Seanad elections have taken place?  I asssume none will be Taoiseach's nominees.  20 members of the Oireachtas are enough to nominate a candidate for President, and the next Irish presidential election will be held in October assuming Mary McAleese serves out her term.  Could Gerry Adams vote to nominate himself or would SF need to win 20 seats besides his to get him on the ballot without relying on support outside SF?

[patrick1]

Which I think should give an overall prediction *get your buckets of salt ready* of something like:
73 Fine Gael
38 Labour
26 Fianna Fáil
16 Sinn Féin
  6 United Left Alliance
  7 Independents
  0 Greens

which looks instinctively wrong. Anyway, I guess we'll how wrong soon enough.

How many seats would SF probably need to win to have 20 seats in the Oireachtas (Dáil Éireann + Seanad Éireann) once the Seanad elections have taken place?  I asssume none will be Taoiseach's nominees.  20 members of the Oireachtas are enough to nominate a candidate for President, and the next Irish presidential election will be held in October assuming Mary McAleese serves out her term.  Could Gerry Adams vote to nominate himself or would SF need to win 20 seats besides his to get him on the ballot without relying on support outside SF?

I am pretty sure you just need 20 members- so I "think" some other member of SF would nominate and then they would just vote for themselves.  It would be a ridiculous move even if they had the #'s.  Personally, I think they should get rid of the Seanad altogether- maybe look at getting rid of the President too. Overall Ireland just seems way over-governed and it perpetuates a lot of the local hero nonsense candidates.

[Јas]

So, that gives a slightly revised overall prediction of:
73 Fine Gael
37 Labour
27 Fianna Fáil
15 Sinn Féin
  6 United Left Alliance
  8 Independents


For a bit of comparison, two of The Irish Times's political correspondents blogged their predictions today:

	de Bréadún	McGee
Fine Gael	82	79
Labour	35	34
Fianna Fáil	25	21
Sinn Féin	12	10
United Left		3
Green	0	2
Ind/Other	12*	16

*including unspecified ULA

So, I'm clearly on a different wavelength to the professional commentators in certain regards. Oh well...

[Barnes]

What time do the polls open over there?

[Јas]

What time do the polls open over there?

Polls opened at 7a.m. and close at 10p.m. (local times).
(Though I suppose technically, many of the islands off the west coast voted either on Wednesday or Thursday.)

An exit poll wil be release tomorrow morning at 8a.m.; counting begins at 9.
We won't know much until early afternoon.

[Barnes]

What time do the polls open over there?

Polls opened at 7a.m. and close at 10p.m. (local times).

An exit poll wil be release tomorrow morning at 8a.m.; counting begins at 9.
We won't know much until early afternoon.

Thanks!  Interesting that counting doesn't start until tomorrow, but I guess I'm used to the American idea of throwing out the numbers (however meaningless) as soon as they get out there.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Let's hope the Fail fail will be as epic as predicted and that for the first time Ireland will have a normal political system with a left and the right.

After all, maybe it's better to have Fine Gael ruling during the crisis period, so that they could get wiped out quickly enough and maybe we could see a Labour government...

[Јas]

[Tetro Kornbluth]

There is always (at least) one independent or small party candidate who will get elected who no-one, repeat no-one, believed who had any chance seconds before the boxes open and is completely outside of whatever ballygovillage he (nearly always he) hails from.

Would say more but I have been busy as of late, will post much more tomorrow when the scale of the apoclaypse becomes clear.

[patrick1]

Hey guys, How is emigrant or absentee voting handled? I can't find much information on it- are you allowed to vote at embassies etc.?

[Oakvale]

Well, just back from voting. My local polling station was pretty packed, so that's probably a good sign.

[minionofmidas]

I can only encourage all Irish posters to post their full ballot.

[Oakvale]

Obviously past a certain point the preferences become more or less random and divided between fringe independents, so I'll leave them off.

[1] Joe Costello (Lab)
[2] Aíne Clancy (Lab)
[3] Paschal Donohoe (FG)
[4] Maureen O' Sullivan (Ind.)
[5] Phil Kearney (Green)
[6] Christy Burke (Ind.)
[7] Cieran Perry (Ind.)
[8] The incredible John "Pluto" Hyland (Ind.)

As you can imagine it got a bit silly after that.

[DL]

What sort of turnout level have you had in recent Irish elections and if the turnout is high or low - which party does it help or hinder?

[minionofmidas]

67% in 2007. Whether that was high or low or whatever I cannot tell you - wikipedia is oddly silent on turnout (or no. of reg'd voters) for the two elections before that.

[freek]

67% in 2007. Whether that was high or low or whatever I cannot tell you - wikipedia is oddly silent on turnout (or no. of reg'd voters) for the two elections before that.

I have found the following figures:

1992: 68.4%
1997: 65.9%
2002: 62.6%
2007: 67.0%

http://eed.nsd.uib.no/webview/index.jsp?study=http://129.177.90.166:80/obj/fStudy/IEPA1997_Display&node=0&mode=cube&v=2&cube=http://129.177.90.166:80/obj/fCube/IEPA1997_Display_C1&top=yes