Spanish elections and politics

[DL]

Starting to look like when all the dust settles the result will be almost identical to last winter except that PP gained 10 or so seats from Cs...Spain remains ungovernable

[Bacon King]

47% in
PSOE       23.96%        94
Podomos  21.39%        69 

is it just me or is that a huge seat disparity for two parties so close together in the popular vote?

[jaichind]

Podemos vote share I suspect will go down from here.  All the places where Podemos are in the top two parties have a much higher share of the vote counted than Spain as a whole.  Podemos has to hope the Madrid count and other urban areas turn around soon in their favor.

[jaichind]

47% in
PSOE       23.96%        94
Podomos  21.39%        69 

is it just me or is that a huge seat disparity for two parties so close together in the popular vote?

Well, if Podomos has all their votes concentrated in certain parts of the country then this result makes a lot of sense.  This is not a pure PR system.

[jaichind]

55% in

PP           31.54%       134
PSOE       23.78%        92
Podomos  21.40%        70 
C             11.87%        29

C making up ground mostly at expense of PSOE.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

What type of voter is 2016 UPyD voter? Who still votes on them? They will again have worse score than that party with cute cow in logo.

[DavidB.]

Starting to look like when all the dust settles the result will be almost identical to last winter except that PP gained 10 or so seats from Cs...Spain remains ungovernable

this. LMAO

[jaichind]

61% in

PP           31.73%       135
PSOE       23.65%        90
Podomos  21.38%        71  
C             12,07%        29

I think seat count will not be far off from this.  Only Madrid is sort of changeable at this stage in terms of seat distribution.  

[jaichind]

Starting to look like when all the dust settles the result will be almost identical to last winter except that PP gained 10 or so seats from Cs...Spain remains ungovernable

I am not sure I agree.  PP's gains in terms of vote count and seats gives it more political chips to go for a PP government with support from C and PSOE from the outside.  Question now is is that with or without Rajoy who can legitimately claim that he can and should continue.

[jaichind]

69% in

PP           31.98%       135
PSOE       23.50%        89
Podemos  21.36%        72 
C             12,27%        29

PP and C gaining vote share.  PSOE falling vote share.

[jaichind]

The trend from Madrid is still PSOE is getting a swing from Podemos and C with 36% of the vote in.  Podemos shot is bolt by forming an alliance with IU.   The net result is Podemos losing vote share and no real gain in terms of seats even though the threshold effect of the IU bloc should have gained it a lot of seats.

[jaichind]

74% in

PP           32.16%       136
PSOE       23.38%        89
Podemos  21.32%        71  
C             12.40%        29

C still going up.  C's results not as far as they must have feared when they saw the exit polls given that back in 2015 C totally under-performed exit polls.  This time it is Podemos's turn.

[jaichind]

Podemos falling apart in Madrid.  They are down 3.5% from 2015 and getting worse as more votes comes in.  C is down around 2% since 2015.   PSOE and to some extend PP are the gainers.

[Velasco]

Podemos second in command Ïñigo Errejón admitted that the results are bad for UP.

Starting to look like when all the dust settles the result will be almost identical to last winter except that PP gained 10 or so seats from Cs...Spain remains ungovernable

I am not sure I agree.  PP's gains in terms of vote count and seats gives it more political chips to go for a PP government with support from C and PSOE from the outside.  Question now is is that with or without Rajoy who can legitimately claim that he can and should continue.

The pressure to reach a "stable" agreement will be stronger. The bad thing is that results vindicate Rajoy and likely he will persist on his idea of a Grand Coalition led by himself. 

[jaichind]

I most likely do not know what I am talking about.  But based on the turnout patterns I feel the exit poll most likely overestimates Podemos and underestimates PP and PSOE.    I guess we will see.

I now accept my accolades (this is an old forum joke stemming from the 2004 US elections.)

[jaichind]

I wonder how much effect the post-Brexit market and political (at least in UK) choas had on this election.  If should have driven the voters to go for establishment parties which seems to have taken place.

[jaichind]

82% in

PP           32.44%       136
PSOE       23.17%        88
Podemos  21.27%        71 
C             12.61%        30

PP and C continue to gain from PSOE.  Podemos losing ground very slowing.

[jaichind]

Podemos now down 4% in Madrid and falling.  PP now up 3% and rising.

[jeron]

Podemos second in command Ïñigo Errejón admitted that the results are bad for UP.

Starting to look like when all the dust settles the result will be almost identical to last winter except that PP gained 10 or so seats from Cs...Spain remains ungovernable

I am not sure I agree.  PP's gains in terms of vote count and seats gives it more political chips to go for a PP government with support from C and PSOE from the outside.  Question now is is that with or without Rajoy who can legitimately claim that he can and should continue.

The pressure to reach a "stable" agreement will be stronger. The bad thing is that results vindicate Rajoy and likely he will persist on his idea of a Grand Coalition led by himself. 

PSOE and C will never accept a Rajoy led government. So, if Rajoy persists, Spain will indeed remain ungovernable.

[Velasco]

The last-hour Brexit effect is a plausible possibility. Unlike previous polls suggested, the UP potential voters didn't mobilise and it seems that PSOE received some transfers from Podemos. Maybe when the dust settles...

PSOE and C will never accept a Rajoy led government. So, if Rajoy persists, Spain will indeed remain ungovernable.

Pressure from the EC, the economic powers and the 'markets' will be very strong. Establishment parties will be forced to find a solution. It's not easy if Rajoy has the intent to stay. He will say that he's legitimated by popular vote to continue at the head. At least it seems that Pedro Sánchez saves his head; results leave Ciudadanos in a bad place.

[jaichind]

88% in

PP           32.68%       136
PSOE       23.00%        87
Podemos  21.22%        71 
C             12.77%        31

PP and C continue to gain from PSOE.  Podemos losing ground very slowing.

[Vosem]

Are the C's in a bad place, though? They're still gaining, and even if the current results are accurate, they've lost less than 1.5% off their 2015 result and have lost significantly fewer seats than expected.

At the moment, PP/C's are at 168 and still gaining, with PSOE/UP at 158 and declining. (Compare to 2015 totals of 163 and 159). PNV has supported PP government in the past, as has the old CiU (though I suspect the modern CDC may be less willing, but if pressure is on, that may be a possibility too). I think if a few more seats trend right, then PP/C's supported by regional parties becomes a very likely scenario (though I'm sure C's and minor parties would force Rajoy's ouster).

It doesn't make sense to me that PP would rather keep Rajoy and not form government than dump him and be the dominant governmental partner for 4 years.

[Nanwe]

The problem is that the PP's internal life is dead. There's only Rajoy and his minions. No one would dare - most likely - to replace him. So it's uncertain.

In Euskadi, maybe the PP can get PNV abstention or support in exchange of the PP doing the same after the regional elections there in the fall.

[jaichind]

93% in

PP           32.85%       136
PSOE       22.84%        86
Podemos  21.17%        71  
C             12.90%        32

PP and C continue to gain from PSOE.  Podemos losing ground very slowing.

[jaichind]

So this election looks like it is about

a) Some 2015 C voters voting PP
b) 2015 PSOE vote staying with PSOE
3) Some 2015 Podemos-IU voters just staying home.