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Internal poll megathread
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Topic: Internal poll megathread (Read 59710 times)
dspNY
YaBB God
Posts: 2,593
Re: Internal poll megathread
«
Reply #775 on:
November 07, 2016, 05:30:58 pm »
Quote from: Likely Voter on November 07, 2016, 05:18:16 pm
John Heilmann on WADR says that the Clinton team says their internals "bottomed out" last Wednesday following the Comey letter with the race getting "tight" and since then things have improved with some "breathing room"
My guess is they are up 5 in their internals and the breathing room reference is the path to 270 (either PA or MI) got within a couple of points but is now likely Dem again
«
Last Edit: November 07, 2016, 06:24:03 pm by dspNY
»
Logged
dspNY
YaBB God
Posts: 2,593
Re: Internal poll megathread
«
Reply #776 on:
November 07, 2016, 06:22:55 pm »
PPP says this about the following states
VA: Clinton +5 (4-way), Clinton +6 H2H
Believes Clinton will win NH and NV by at least 3
Clinton +2.5% in FL
Clinton +4 in PA
Clinton +5 in CO
Agrees with the Upshot poll of NC
Ohio is the closest state, within a point either way
Logged
matthew27
YaBB God
Posts: 1,476
Political Matrix
E: -5.03, S: -1.22
Re: Internal poll megathread
«
Reply #777 on:
November 07, 2016, 06:33:00 pm »
Feeling a lot better about Colorado and PA with this data.
Logged
Hammy
YaBB God
Posts: 2,648
Re: Internal poll megathread
«
Reply #778 on:
November 07, 2016, 06:52:48 pm »
Are the PPP numbers polls are predictions?
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click to read my comics!
Never Bloomberg/Biden/Harris/Gabbard/Warren.
Say no to third party challengers.
Classic Conservative
YaBB God
Posts: 5,669
Re: Internal poll megathread
«
Reply #779 on:
November 07, 2016, 06:55:04 pm »
Quote from: Hammy on November 07, 2016, 06:52:48 pm
Are the PPP numbers polls are predictions?
I think so?
Logged
Snek!
Angry_Weasel
YaBB God
Posts: 20,933
Re: Internal poll megathread
«
Reply #780 on:
November 07, 2016, 07:00:37 pm »
Quote from: matthew27 on November 07, 2016, 06:33:00 pm
Feeling a lot better about Colorado and PA with this data.
If either one is lost or uncertain, there will be crow for Thanksgiving AND Christmas here!
Logged
Bevinevitable
IceSpear
YaBB God
Posts: 30,562
Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70
Re: Internal poll megathread
«
Reply #781 on:
November 07, 2016, 10:21:47 pm »
Quote from: Likely Voter on November 07, 2016, 05:18:16 pm
John Heilmann on WADR says that the Clinton team says their internals "bottomed out" last Wednesday following the Comey letter with the race getting "tight" and since then things have improved with some "breathing room"
b-b-ut I thought the Comey letter had no effect!
Logged
RalstonSucks
dxu8888
Sr. Member
Posts: 359
Re: Internal poll megathread
«
Reply #782 on:
November 07, 2016, 11:34:24 pm »
https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/795818400320724993
Two senior PA Dems - 1 of them named Ed Rendell - tell me they expect Hillary to only win PA by 2 1/2 to 3.
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Pandaguineapig
YaBB God
Posts: 2,274
Re: Internal poll megathread
«
Reply #783 on:
November 07, 2016, 11:35:43 pm »
Not good for Mcginty
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Bevinevitable
IceSpear
YaBB God
Posts: 30,562
Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70
Re: Internal poll megathread
«
Reply #784 on:
November 07, 2016, 11:56:21 pm »
You guys know Rendell concern trolls about PA literally every election, right? It's even a running joke among PA politicos. Here's just two examples:
Quote
Democrats say they remain confident, but there are clear undercurrents of concern. Governor Rendell and party officials have asked Obama to spend more time in the state to counter the McCain offensive
Quote
McCain McMentum?
Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell wants Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., back in the Keystone State. He's worried Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., could still pull off a victory there.
"I don’t want to be selfish,” Rendell told CNN. “But I’m still a little nervous, so I have asked Obama to come back. We understand he’s got demands from 20 different states, but we’d like to see him here.”
This was a week before the 2008 election. As we all know, Obama won by 11 points.
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Landslide Lyndon
px75
YaBB God
Posts: 18,228
Re: Internal poll megathread
«
Reply #785 on:
November 08, 2016, 01:43:44 am »
Quote from: IceSpear on November 07, 2016, 10:21:47 pm
Quote from: Likely Voter on November 07, 2016, 05:18:16 pm
John Heilmann on WADR says that the Clinton team says their internals "bottomed out" last Wednesday following the Comey letter with the race getting "tight" and since then things have improved with some "breathing room"
b-b-ut I thought the Comey letter had no effect!
Tom Jensen of PPP and some other Democratic pollsters on twitter said that the Comey letter had no significant impact on their numbers.
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Bob Findley
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: "Just close friends and family,"
Clint Eastwood's "True Crime", 1999.
BoAtlantis
YaBB God
Posts: 791
Re: Internal poll megathread
«
Reply #786 on:
November 08, 2016, 08:14:53 am »
For those fretting about MI
https://twitter.com/ericheggie
"Eric Heggie @ericheggie 6h6 hours ago
Some of you may wonder why @realDonaldTrump will not win Michigan, well let me lay out why from both public and some internal data 1/?"
"So first is the public data, in last weeks Fox 2 Detroit poll Trump was losing over 65 year olds by double digits to Clinton, which... 2/?"
"matches what we are seeing internally. He's losing them BIGLY. You can't win MI as an R while losing over 65 year olds. Now for the 3/?"
"Internal info. We have over 160K hard IDs in MI. Our last persuasion pass was Friday and we were talking to a very bad universe for us 4/?"
"If a Republican is going to win MI they should be winning that universe, but anyone want to take a guess how late Undecideds/R's moved? 6/x"
"Clinton won that universe by 5 pts, which she should not be doing if Trump has any hope of winning in Michigan. #MAGA ain't happening. 7/7"
"Eric Heggie @ericheggie 6h6 hours ago
.@jcpolls I think she wins it closer to 8. Around what Obama did."
"Eric Heggie @ericheggie 6h6 hours ago
.@akaashkolluri no we are not. All the polls show her winning Michigan. Data from the field shows it too."
Logged
psychprofessor
YaBB God
Posts: 1,078
Re: Internal poll megathread
«
Reply #787 on:
November 08, 2016, 10:39:08 am »
David Plouffe final call (Obama 2008 mastermind)
Clinton 50 / Trump 44
Clinton 342 EV's , Obama 2012 states, plus NC and NE-2, possibly 348 with Iowa
Logged
heatcharger
YaBB God
Posts: 4,135
Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -1.24
Re: Internal poll megathread
«
Reply #788 on:
November 08, 2016, 10:48:55 am »
Quote from: psychprofessor on November 08, 2016, 10:39:08 am
David Plouffe final call (Obama 2008 mastermind)
Clinton 50 / Trump 44
Clinton 342 EV's , Obama 2012 states, plus NC and NE-2, possibly 348 with Iowa
That's basically my call give or take NE-2.
Logged
RJEvans
MasterRegal
Sr. Member
Posts: 496
Re: Internal poll megathread
«
Reply #789 on:
November 08, 2016, 11:57:45 am »
Quote from: psychprofessor on November 08, 2016, 10:39:08 am
David Plouffe final call (Obama 2008 mastermind)
Clinton 50 / Trump 44
Clinton 342 EV's , Obama 2012 states, plus NC and NE-2, possibly 348 with Iowa
I wish I had his confidence pills he seems to be popping nonstop.
Logged
Snek!
Angry_Weasel
YaBB God
Posts: 20,933
Re: Internal poll megathread
«
Reply #790 on:
November 08, 2016, 12:03:05 pm »
Quote from: RJEvans on November 08, 2016, 11:57:45 am
Quote from: psychprofessor on November 08, 2016, 10:39:08 am
David Plouffe final call (Obama 2008 mastermind)
Clinton 50 / Trump 44
Clinton 342 EV's , Obama 2012 states, plus NC and NE-2, possibly 348 with Iowa
I wish I had his confidence pills he seems to be popping nonstop.
If you do a Rule of Four, it will probably be like Clinton 48, Trump 46 and basically New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and maybe Colorado by the skin of her teeth while eventually losing Florida and North Carolina between 1 and 2.
Logged
Devout Centrist
YaBB God
Posts: 6,272
Political Matrix
E: -5.45, S: -10.00
Re: Internal poll megathread
«
Reply #791 on:
November 08, 2016, 12:08:49 pm »
Quote from: Spicy Purrito( (((☭ )))-MA) on November 08, 2016, 12:03:05 pm
Quote from: RJEvans on November 08, 2016, 11:57:45 am
Quote from: psychprofessor on November 08, 2016, 10:39:08 am
David Plouffe final call (Obama 2008 mastermind)
Clinton 50 / Trump 44
Clinton 342 EV's , Obama 2012 states, plus NC and NE-2, possibly 348 with Iowa
I wish I had his confidence pills he seems to be popping nonstop.
If you do a Rule of Four, it will probably be like Clinton 48, Trump 46 and basically New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and maybe Colorado by the skin of her teeth while eventually losing Florida and North Carolina between 1 and 2.
Or Clinton by 10.
Logged
marty
boshembechle
YaBB God
Posts: 2,848
Re: Internal poll megathread
«
Reply #792 on:
November 19, 2016, 10:53:19 pm »
This thread is hilarious .
Logged
Doctor Imperialism
YaBB God
Posts: 3,032
Re: Internal poll megathread
«
Reply #793 on:
November 20, 2016, 09:02:08 am »
Quote from: BoAtlantis on November 08, 2016, 08:14:53 am
For those fretting about MI
https://twitter.com/ericheggie
"Eric Heggie @ericheggie 6h6 hours ago
Some of you may wonder why @realDonaldTrump will not win Michigan, well let me lay out why from both public and some internal data 1/?"
"So first is the public data, in last weeks Fox 2 Detroit poll Trump was losing over 65 year olds by double digits to Clinton, which... 2/?"
"matches what we are seeing internally. He's losing them BIGLY. You can't win MI as an R while losing over 65 year olds. Now for the 3/?"
"Internal info. We have over 160K hard IDs in MI. Our last persuasion pass was Friday and we were talking to a very bad universe for us 4/?"
"If a Republican is going to win MI they should be winning that universe, but anyone want to take a guess how late Undecideds/R's moved? 6/x"
"Clinton won that universe by 5 pts, which she should not be doing if Trump has any hope of winning in Michigan. #MAGA ain't happening. 7/7"
"Eric Heggie @ericheggie 6h6 hours ago
.@jcpolls I think she wins it closer to 8. Around what Obama did."
"Eric Heggie @ericheggie 6h6 hours ago
.@akaashkolluri no we are not. All the polls show her winning Michigan. Data from the field shows it too."
Logged
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