Presidential Ratings and Predictions - South Carolina

[ElectionsGuy]

Two votes. One for a rating (Safe D, Lean R, Toss-Up, etc.) and one for a prediction of who will win (Clinton, Trump, or Other).

Note: If you think Johnson/Other will win a state, just vote 'Other' and don't vote for a rating.

Update/vote in these threads if you haven't already! There's no time limit and you can still affect the overall result:

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Ratings

Safe Clinton: 183
Likely Clinton: 22
Lean Clinton: 35
Toss-Up: 70
Lean Trump: 37
Likely Trump: 18
Safe Trump: 60

Clinton: 240
Trump: 115
Toss-Up: 70

Predictions

Clinton: 291✔
Trump: 134

South Carolina: Likely R, 52-45 Trump.

ME-02 is still Toss-Up by just one vote. Very close states/districts include Iowa (53% Clinton), NE-02 (51% Trump), and Ohio (59% Trump).

[Xing]

If it were still August, I'd say Likely R, but this close to November, I'm ready to say Safe R. Trump wins 53-45.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

We all know what LLR's going to say...

Likely R, Trump+6-8 or so. I think it's going to be closer than usual, but not close per se

[Maxwell]

Lean R, Trump by 5-7.

[evergreenarbor]

Likely R.

Trump: 51%
Clinton: 44%
Johnson: 4%
Other: 1%

[Suburbia]

Likely R. Trump wins 5-10 points. James Clyburn, the only black congressman right now in South Carolina could help Clinton make it closer, however.

[LLR]

Tossup

Trump 46%
Clinton 43%

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Likely R, Trump 51-46

[ElectionsGuy]

Tossup

Trump 46%
Clinton 43%

Did you even vote? Because nobody has voted toss-up yet.

[LLR]

Tossup

Trump 46%
Clinton 43%

Did you even vote? Because nobody has voted toss-up yet.

I voted Safe D

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Normally Safe R with a 6 to 10 point margin, but while I'll still keep that margin, Trump makes this State only Likely R.

[Tiger front]

Likely R.
Trump 53%
Clinton 45%
Other 2%

[Senator-elect Spark]

Likely R.

Trump

[peterthlee]

Lean R
Trump 50-47-3

[TarHeelDem]

Waiting until the possible n-word tape to rate SC.

[Cashew]

Likely R

Trump 49%
Clinton 45%

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Waiting until the possible n-word tape to rate SC.

...would that make it a Tossup, or Safe R?

[Sir Mohamed]

Likely R.


My prediction:

✓ Trump: 53.5%
Clinton: 41.7%

[Roronoa D. Law]

Likely R, Trump wins with high single digits. County most likely to flip is Florence even though Obama lost it both times it was close. I would also watch out for the suburban counties of Augusta, Charlotte, and Charleston.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Likely R, Trump wins with high single digits. County most likely to flip is Florence even though Obama lost it both times it was close. I would also watch out for the suburban counties of Augusta, Charlotte, and Charleston.

Those suburban SC counties are even more Republican than the state as a whole. Florence will flip and Georgetown and Union are likely to, but anything more than that will require an unexpected surge in Johnson or McMullin support.