Predict the Democratic Primaries Round 2: New York

[Xing]

Biden
Sanders
Warren

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Special thanks to Hades for the map of the territories!

Since I’ve got a flight to catch early tomorrow, I’m doing this one a bit early. I’d give Biden the edge in New York, since I don’t think Warren would match Sanders’s performance in Upstate New York, but I think she’d come closer due to doing significantly better in NYC. Lean Biden, I suppose.

[😥]

Joe Biden

[UWS]

Biden will likely win New York thanks to NYC while Warren will do well in upstate New York.

[W]

I could for sure see Warren pulling off an upset in New York due to the proximity and while I do not think she can match Sanders 2016 upstate I must say she may overperform in cities compared to Sanders. It really would come down to the wire in my view.

Also I must further assert as a New Yorker (albeit upstate) that I believe Warren would perform fairly well in NYC and other urban areas, Manhattan and say the Bronx or Queens are completely different animals, and the population is not concentrated solely on Manhattan.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Biden due to NYC.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

I actually live in New York and can tell you that Biden doesn't have the same strength with affluent whites and many nonwhites that Hillary did. Warren and Buttigieg both have appeal to the establishment, ergo Biden will clearly underperform Hillary the areas she won, especially in Hillary precincts that aren't mostly African American. Biden is also weak among the youth - in the same way that I didn't know many, if any, college aged Hillary primary voters in 2016 - I don't know any college aged Biden supporters. They're still with Bernie, but Yang and Buttigieg have sizable numbers.

There is a much greater chance that Biden is out before New York than him winning the primaries there.

edit: I'll spit out another hot take and say that because I think there's a greater chance of Biden dropping out before New York than Yang dropping out before New York, Yang is more likely to get more votes than Biden in the New York Primary.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Toss-up.

Tons of would be Clinton-Warren voters in NYC. Biden is not Clinton. Warren is not Sanders.

[UWS]

I could for sure see Warren pulling off an upset in New York due to the proximity and while I do not think she can match Sanders 2016 upstate I must say she may overperform in cities compared to Sanders. It really would come down to the wire in my view.

Also I must further assert as a New Yorker (albeit upstate) that I believe Warren would perform fairly well in NYC and other urban areas, Manhattan and say the Bronx or Queens are completely different animals, and the population is not concentrated solely on Manhattan.

Romney was from Massachusetts like Warren and yet he lost the 2008 New York Republican primary to McCain by double digits.

[W]

I could for sure see Warren pulling off an upset in New York due to the proximity and while I do not think she can match Sanders 2016 upstate I must say she may overperform in cities compared to Sanders. It really would come down to the wire in my view.

Also I must further assert as a New Yorker (albeit upstate) that I believe Warren would perform fairly well in NYC and other urban areas, Manhattan and say the Bronx or Queens are completely different animals, and the population is not concentrated solely on Manhattan.

Romney was from Massachusetts like Warren and yet he lost the 2008 New York Republican primary to McCain by double digits.

This is true, however I'm not banking this on proximity alone. In 2016 with Sanders and Clinton, there was a major hitch with an early registration cutoff which lead to very low turnout but even then it was clear, Clinton won the cities while Sanders won the rural counties.

Biden sure is not Clinton, Warren sure isn't Sanders. I cannot see Biden performing as well in urban areas of New York (the 5 boroughs of NYC + other cities upstate) as Clinton did, it just is not his appeal. I could see Warren doing a bit worse than Sanders upstate, but I think she will more than make up for it in urban areas.

Also voter registrations in New York have now been extended from where they were in 2016 from October of the year prior to February of the year of, which could make significant changes to turnout. Truth is, this race just is not clear enough to call a winner but if I had to bank on it given Biden's state with these hypothetical results, I'd see it as tilt Warren.

[IceSpear]

Assuming it's a straight Biden vs. Warren race, Biden probably does better than Hillary did Upstate but worse Downstate. But the latter is where the votes are, particularly in a Democratic primary. This would be an interesting one to watch.

[Xing]

Break the tie!

[ElectionsGuy]

Break the tie!

I broke it for Warren, but I have no confidence whatsoever.

[President Johnson]

Joe Biden will win, due to strong support from New York City and Andrew Cuomo backing his candidacy. I think he'll have most of the New York Democratic establishment behind him.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Biden will win here.

[Suburbia]

Biden or Warren.