France 2012: the official thread

[State Comptroller Atkins]

Daniel Hannan's take on this election:

The truth is that France faces a choice between two socialists. Both favour a command economy, a measure of protectionism, entrenched entitlements ('les acquis sociaux'), deeper European integration, and a dirigiste state. No wonder they argue so fiercely about immigration: that's virtually the only area where they disagree. Bonnet blanc et blanc bonnet, as they say in France. Tweedle-Dum and Tweedle-Dumber.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100150853/if-nicolas-sarkozy-thinks-the-ft-is-a-free-market-newspaper-hes-even-more-extreme-than-we-realised/

I don't think I could hate a Tory as much a Dan Hannan. And I don't think any are that deluded.

I actually think he's an asset to the Left. I mean, he's openly critical of the NHS.

[State Comptroller Atkins]

Why introduce that lunatic?

Comic Relief.

[You kip if you want to...]

Daniel Hannan's take on this election:

The truth is that France faces a choice between two socialists. Both favour a command economy, a measure of protectionism, entrenched entitlements ('les acquis sociaux'), deeper European integration, and a dirigiste state. No wonder they argue so fiercely about immigration: that's virtually the only area where they disagree. Bonnet blanc et blanc bonnet, as they say in France. Tweedle-Dum and Tweedle-Dumber.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100150853/if-nicolas-sarkozy-thinks-the-ft-is-a-free-market-newspaper-hes-even-more-extreme-than-we-realised/

I don't think I could hate a Tory as much a Dan Hannan. And I don't think any are that deluded.

I actually think he's an asset to the Left. I mean, he's openly critical of the NHS.

Don't understand why he hasn't joined UKIP yet.

[Californian Tony]

Daniel Hannan's take on this election:

The truth is that France faces a choice between two socialists. Both favour a command economy, a measure of protectionism, entrenched entitlements ('les acquis sociaux'), deeper European integration, and a dirigiste state. No wonder they argue so fiercely about immigration: that's virtually the only area where they disagree. Bonnet blanc et blanc bonnet, as they say in France. Tweedle-Dum and Tweedle-Dumber.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100150853/if-nicolas-sarkozy-thinks-the-ft-is-a-free-market-newspaper-hes-even-more-extreme-than-we-realised/

I don't think I could hate a Tory as much a Dan Hannan. And I don't think any are that deluded.

I actually think he's an asset to the Left. I mean, he's openly critical of the NHS.

Don't understand why he hasn't joined UKIP yet.

Or why he hasn't taken American nationality and joined the GOP.

[© Tweed the Younger]

are there any Melenchon vs Sarko polls being done for fun or academics?

[Californian Tony]

are there any Melenchon vs Sarko polls being done for fun or academics?

Nope. That would be interesting to see (so would all the possible combinations between Hollande, Sarko, Le Pen, Mélenchon and Bayrou) but pollsters are somewhat realistic.

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

This post is so Winfieldesque.

[Vosem]

Daniel Hannan's take on this election:

The truth is that France faces a choice between two socialists. Both favour a command economy, a measure of protectionism, entrenched entitlements ('les acquis sociaux'), deeper European integration, and a dirigiste state. No wonder they argue so fiercely about immigration: that's virtually the only area where they disagree. Bonnet blanc et blanc bonnet, as they say in France. Tweedle-Dum and Tweedle-Dumber.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100150853/if-nicolas-sarkozy-thinks-the-ft-is-a-free-market-newspaper-hes-even-more-extreme-than-we-realised/

I don't think I could hate a Tory as much a Dan Hannan. And I don't think any are that deluded.

I actually think he's an asset to the Left. I mean, he's openly critical of the NHS.

It's a shame criticism of the NHS helps the left (though it's almost certainly so, unfortunately).

I haven't been paying the French election much attention until now, but I hope to give it more attention in the coming months (which, frankly, it deserves). Some first thoughts:
- Hollande will almost certainly win.
- Hollande, Sarkozy, lePen, Melenchon, and Bayrou seem like they'll be the only candidates to break 10%. It's very difficult for me to support any of the five, but the Front National scares me a bit, so I suppose I'll back Sarkozy as the most right-wing but not-scary person running. With luck, France will drift sane-right over time (a la American GOP minus social (religious, cultural, such as abortion, gay marriage) issues).

[Keystone Phil]

I don't understand either Phil or Wormyguy's presence in this thread.

You've contributed so much.

[Keystone Phil]

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

This post is so Winfieldesque.

I'm not a Sarkozy fanboy so...no, not quite.

[ModerateCoward]

Daniel Hannan's take on this election:

The truth is that France faces a choice between two socialists. Both favour a command economy, a measure of protectionism, entrenched entitlements ('les acquis sociaux'), deeper European integration, and a dirigiste state. No wonder they argue so fiercely about immigration: that's virtually the only area where they disagree. Bonnet blanc et blanc bonnet, as they say in France. Tweedle-Dum and Tweedle-Dumber.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100150853/if-nicolas-sarkozy-thinks-the-ft-is-a-free-market-newspaper-hes-even-more-extreme-than-we-realised/

I don't think I could hate a Tory as much a Dan Hannan. And I don't think any are that deluded.

I actually think he's an asset to the Left. I mean, he's openly critical of the NHS.

It's a shame criticism of the NHS helps the left (though it's almost certainly so, unfortunately).

I haven't been paying the French election much attention until now, but I hope to give it more attention in the coming months (which, frankly, it deserves). Some first thoughts:
- Hollande will almost certainly win.
- Hollande, Sarkozy, lePen, Melenchon, and Bayrou seem like they'll be the only candidates to break 10%. It's very difficult for me to support any of the five, but the Front National scares me a bit, so I suppose I'll back Sarkozy as the most right-wing but not-scary person running. With luck, France will drift sane-right over time (a la American GOP minus social (religious, cultural, such as abortion, gay marriage) issues).

Didn't France try the American approach for past five years? Guess where they are now...

[President Marokai]

I don't understand either Phil or Wormyguy's presence in this thread.

You've contributed so much.

Well I shouldn't have said that, I know. I actually do understand your presence in this thread, since it's about just getting on the nerves of lefties, but Wormyguy's weirdly random stubborn posturing over Italy's record (or lack thereof) of military accomplishment completely baffles me.

[Keystone Phil]

I don't understand either Phil or Wormyguy's presence in this thread.

You've contributed so much.

Well I shouldn't have said that, I know. I actually do understand your presence in this thread, since it's about just getting on the nerves of lefties, but Wormyguy's weirdly random stubborn posturing over Italy's record (or lack thereof) of military accomplishment completely baffles me.

Actually, no, I'm really following the race so that's why I'm posting here.

[President Marokai]

I suppose it's just a difference in posting philosophy. I follow international election threads pretty much constantly, but I only rarely post in them unless I have anything to add. Wormyguy's posts did get me curious about his motivations, though. Purely for my own purposes. Oh well.

[Vosem]

Daniel Hannan's take on this election:

The truth is that France faces a choice between two socialists. Both favour a command economy, a measure of protectionism, entrenched entitlements ('les acquis sociaux'), deeper European integration, and a dirigiste state. No wonder they argue so fiercely about immigration: that's virtually the only area where they disagree. Bonnet blanc et blanc bonnet, as they say in France. Tweedle-Dum and Tweedle-Dumber.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100150853/if-nicolas-sarkozy-thinks-the-ft-is-a-free-market-newspaper-hes-even-more-extreme-than-we-realised/

I don't think I could hate a Tory as much a Dan Hannan. And I don't think any are that deluded.

I actually think he's an asset to the Left. I mean, he's openly critical of the NHS.

It's a shame criticism of the NHS helps the left (though it's almost certainly so, unfortunately).

I haven't been paying the French election much attention until now, but I hope to give it more attention in the coming months (which, frankly, it deserves). Some first thoughts:
- Hollande will almost certainly win.
- Hollande, Sarkozy, lePen, Melenchon, and Bayrou seem like they'll be the only candidates to break 10%. It's very difficult for me to support any of the five, but the Front National scares me a bit, so I suppose I'll back Sarkozy as the most right-wing but not-scary person running. With luck, France will drift sane-right over time (a la American GOP minus social (religious, cultural, such as abortion, gay marriage) issues).

Didn't France try the American approach for past five years? Guess where they are now...

No, absolutely not. http://www.economist.com/node/12607041?story_id=12607041

[ModerateCoward]

Daniel Hannan's take on this election:

The truth is that France faces a choice between two socialists. Both favour a command economy, a measure of protectionism, entrenched entitlements ('les acquis sociaux'), deeper European integration, and a dirigiste state. No wonder they argue so fiercely about immigration: that's virtually the only area where they disagree. Bonnet blanc et blanc bonnet, as they say in France. Tweedle-Dum and Tweedle-Dumber.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100150853/if-nicolas-sarkozy-thinks-the-ft-is-a-free-market-newspaper-hes-even-more-extreme-than-we-realised/

I don't think I could hate a Tory as much a Dan Hannan. And I don't think any are that deluded.

I actually think he's an asset to the Left. I mean, he's openly critical of the NHS.

It's a shame criticism of the NHS helps the left (though it's almost certainly so, unfortunately).

I haven't been paying the French election much attention until now, but I hope to give it more attention in the coming months (which, frankly, it deserves). Some first thoughts:
- Hollande will almost certainly win.
- Hollande, Sarkozy, lePen, Melenchon, and Bayrou seem like they'll be the only candidates to break 10%. It's very difficult for me to support any of the five, but the Front National scares me a bit, so I suppose I'll back Sarkozy as the most right-wing but not-scary person running. With luck, France will drift sane-right over time (a la American GOP minus social (religious, cultural, such as abortion, gay marriage) issues).

Didn't France try the American approach for past five years? Guess where they are now...

No, absolutely not. http://www.economist.com/node/12607041?story_id=12607041

The economist is a right-wing news agency. Might as well ask Glenn Beck about it. Just the mention of Europe will have neutrons firing off Socialism in his brain. This is pretty much like calling Obama a socialist.

[Californian Tony]

I haven't been paying the French election much attention until now, but I hope to give it more attention in the coming months (which, frankly, it deserves). Some first thoughts:

In the coming months ?? The countdown in my sig indicates the number of days left, FYI.

- Hollande, Sarkozy, lePen, Melenchon, and Bayrou seem like they'll be the only candidates to break 10%. It's very difficult for me to support any of the five, but the Front National scares me a bit, so I suppose I'll back Sarkozy as the most right-wing but not-scary person running. With luck, France will drift sane-right over time (a la American GOP minus social (religious, cultural, such as abortion, gay marriage) issues).

Even if you exclude social issues, the GOP is still insane. Even the UMP is saner on that regard.

[Vosem]

Daniel Hannan's take on this election:

The truth is that France faces a choice between two socialists. Both favour a command economy, a measure of protectionism, entrenched entitlements ('les acquis sociaux'), deeper European integration, and a dirigiste state. No wonder they argue so fiercely about immigration: that's virtually the only area where they disagree. Bonnet blanc et blanc bonnet, as they say in France. Tweedle-Dum and Tweedle-Dumber.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100150853/if-nicolas-sarkozy-thinks-the-ft-is-a-free-market-newspaper-hes-even-more-extreme-than-we-realised/

I don't think I could hate a Tory as much a Dan Hannan. And I don't think any are that deluded.

I actually think he's an asset to the Left. I mean, he's openly critical of the NHS.

It's a shame criticism of the NHS helps the left (though it's almost certainly so, unfortunately).

I haven't been paying the French election much attention until now, but I hope to give it more attention in the coming months (which, frankly, it deserves). Some first thoughts:
- Hollande will almost certainly win.
- Hollande, Sarkozy, lePen, Melenchon, and Bayrou seem like they'll be the only candidates to break 10%. It's very difficult for me to support any of the five, but the Front National scares me a bit, so I suppose I'll back Sarkozy as the most right-wing but not-scary person running. With luck, France will drift sane-right over time (a la American GOP minus social (religious, cultural, such as abortion, gay marriage) issues).

Didn't France try the American approach for past five years? Guess where they are now...

No, absolutely not. http://www.economist.com/node/12607041?story_id=12607041

The economist is a right-wing news agency. Might as well ask Glenn Beck about it. Just the mention of Europe will have neutrons firing off Socialism in his brain. This is pretty much like calling Obama a socialist.

The Economist does tilt to the right, but this article includes the following specific excerpts I was trying to point out:

He has declared that “laissez-faire capitalism is over” and railed against the “dictatorship of the market”. He is setting up a “strategic national investment fund” to take stakes in French companies so as to protect them from foreign predators. His prime minister, François Fillon, has threatened to nationalise banks unless they lend more to companies. And Mr Sarkozy has also pledged to create 100,000 state-subsidised jobs of just the sort favoured by a former Socialist government, which he denounced vigorously during his election campaign.

This lurch to the left has not gone unremarked by real socialists. Martin Schulz, German leader of the Socialist group in the European Parliament, has congratulated the French president for “speaking like a real European socialist”. It was a taunt that the president chose, uncharacteristically, not to dismiss. “Have I become socialist?” he wondered. “Perhaps.” The ambiguity is such that some on the left now see a need to reclaim their ideology. A testy Pierre Moscovici, a French Socialist, insisted to the newspaper Le Parisien recently that “No, Mr Sarkozy is not a socialist.”

I think most Democrats wouldn't even contemplate some of the actions in the first paragraph (though, then again, some would). And then, in the second paragraph, we see Moscovici saying Sarkozy isn't left-wing enough, which proves my basic point.

I haven't been paying the French election much attention until now, but I hope to give it more attention in the coming months (which, frankly, it deserves). Some first thoughts:

In the coming months ?? The countdown in my sig indicates the number of days left, FYI.

I feel dumb; you got me. Somehow I was under the impression that the first round would take place in July and the runoff in August -- stupid here.

- Hollande, Sarkozy, lePen, Melenchon, and Bayrou seem like they'll be the only candidates to break 10%. It's very difficult for me to support any of the five, but the Front National scares me a bit, so I suppose I'll back Sarkozy as the most right-wing but not-scary person running. With luck, France will drift sane-right over time (a la American GOP minus social (religious, cultural, such as abortion, gay marriage) issues).

Even if you exclude social issues, the GOP is still insane. Even the UMP is saner on that regard.

To a French Socialist, the UMP is "saner" than the GOP. To somebody who would be critical of a nationwide universal health-care plan, critical of a lack of nationwide gun rights, and so on and so forth, the GOP is "saner" than the UMP.

[Colbert]

polls trends seems clear : MLP will be close-to-close with NS sunday.

Maybe a final FH-MLP?

[State Comptroller Atkins]

Who would win in a hypothetical second round between Mélenchon and Le Pen?

[Senator MaxQue]

Who would win in a hypothetical second round between Mélenchon and Le Pen?

Mélenchon, I think.

[Leftbehind]

It's pretty ridiculous that no pollster's polled these hypothetical match-ups.

[Californian Tony]

polls trends seems clear : MLP will be close-to-close with NS sunday.

Maybe a final FH-MLP?

I don't know where you get this idea from, but it isn't backed by any data. Sarko is gonna finish 10+ points higher than Le Pen unless something changes dramatically.

It's pretty ridiculous that no pollster's polled these hypothetical match-ups.

Not, it isn't. The likelihood of such scenario is neglectable.

[Hashemite]

Maybe CSA which seems to be trolling around with a 58-42 runoff and Sarko at 24%.

On a side note, I got sent the ballots and campaign lit for all candidates by the embassy.

[Californian Tony]

Maybe CSA which seems to be trolling around with a 58-42 runoff and Sarko at 24%.

Looks like CSA will once again be the epic fail of this election.