LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[publicunofficial]

On one hand, a tough primary could hurt NC Republicans. On the other hand, Tillis is probably not the best candidate they can possibly get. Not the worst (That'd be Virginia Foxx), but mid-tier at best.

[Miles]

McCrory and Tillis are both in uncomfortable positions after the Senate went rogue and passed the surprise abortion bill:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[windjammer]

I love the gop with their successfull political suicide

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

It is safe to say that Berger is running then I guess and he is trying to reduce Tillis advantage.


I think this is probably our last opportunity to get a "third option" (like someone on my list preferably) to jump in and run on the basis of making it about Hagan as opposed to having to defend state legislative bs.

This is helps McCrory because for once there is a visible distance from himself and legislative extremism. Tillis is the one who will end up biting the bullet here one way or the other.

Frankly I hope that Tillis and Berger destroy each other.

[publicunofficial]

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2013/07/03/bonus_quote_of_the_day.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Move over Illinois Democrats, the NC GOP has taken all of half a year to prove themselves as the most disgusting state party in the nation.

[Miles]

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2013/07/03/bonus_quote_of_the_day.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Move over Illinois Democrats, the NC GOP has taken all of half a year to prove themselves as the most disgusting state party in the nation.

Great; that fool only won by .16% in 2012 on McCrory's coattails...more ammunition to beat him in 2016.

[Miles]

A full piece in the Charlotte Observer about the tough calculus McCrory and Tillis now have:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[illegaloperation]

A full piece in the Charlotte Observer about the tough calculus McCrory and Tillis now have:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I've read the same article on News & Observer. This is what will probably happen: Tillis will put it up to a vote then McCrory will let it become law without him signing it.

[windjammer]

Maybe this bill will be declared anti-constitutionnal?

[Miles]

I thin the same thing.  Cateret and Onslow are far more swing able for Dems than exurban Johnston county.

I had the detailed 2012 election breakdowns for the district with Onslow and Carteret but I can't find the spreadsheet at the moment

That district would have been R+10, 57/42 Romney, instead of R+12 (the actual district).

Though the district would have been better for Ilario Patano, I think McIntyre would have won by an almost Barrow-like margin.

[Miles]

Here we go:



On average, the the district would have had about a 55/45-ish lean in favor of the Rs.

[illegaloperation]

Miles, what would you rate Hagan's reelection chances?

[Miles]

Miles, what would you rate Hagan's reelection chances?

I feel pretty good; they could be worse.

[Miles]

Regrettably, a three-judge panel has upheld the 2011 Congressional and Legislative maps.

The NAACP has 30 days to appeal to the NC Surpreme Court, but I personally wasn't expecting this to go very far anyway.

[RogueBeaver]

Landrieu raised $1.7 million in Q2 and has 4.9 COH. Somehow I doubt Cassidy was close.

[RogueBeaver]

Cassidy raised $1.1 million and has 3.2 COH.

[RogueBeaver]

NRSC looking for someone better than Tillis in NC. Cain seems like a decent bet to me.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

It not like we haven't wasted nine months at this point or anything.

Quite messing around with the trash and look for some solid people to run, already. Get the appropriate amount of the right people in a room (with a good 5 or 6 million amongst them to provide to a selected candidate) and lock one of the people from my list in the room with them.

[Morning in Atlas]

Ellmers is pushing her decision back because of the farm bill.

[RogueBeaver]

Doesn't sound terribly enthusiastic. Even if she gets in, a reluctant candidate can be spotted a mile away.

[Miles]

This isn't Congressionally-related, but its still about LA local politics: State Rep. Jim Fannin, one of the few remaing Blue Dogs, jumped ship yesterday:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Fannin will be term-limited next cycle,  he'll run for an open Senate seat in 2013.

This is quite disheatrening, IMO.

[RogueBeaver]

Maginnis on the LA Senate race.

[Miles]

I thought he was leaning towards running, but maybe not. One of the Triad retirement papers did a nice write-up on him recently.

Though he's 82, he's really a great Congressman and I hope he sticks around. It would sad to see him replaced by Baby Berger.

[smoltchanov]

This isn't Congressionally-related, but its still about LA local politics: State Rep. Jim Fannin, one of the few remaing Blue Dogs, jumped ship yesterday:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Fannin will be term-limited next cycle,  he'll run for an open Senate seat in 2013.

This is quite disheatrening, IMO.

And now  - state Senator Rick Ward III too. Two of the few "really conservative" Democrats, that remained until now, so, really, not so surprising. After Ben Nevers retires in 2015 - i am not sure whom to call a "conservative Democrat" in Louisiana legislature. Danahay? Thompson? Smith? (if they don't switch as well by 2015). Few years ago there were dozens of them. It seems that modern Democratic party really became too liberal (even radical) for most of the southern whites - especially rural ones (like Fannin and Ward)

[illegaloperation]

New North Carolina Senate poll: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_071713.pdf

Hagan has hit 49%.