Alabama Megathread 2: Thou Shall Not Touch Teenage Girls

[Tintrlvr]

Obvious grain of salt, but someone I know that works (low level) in the RNC says they decided to go back in for Moore because their data shows he is very likely to win.

If hes likely to win, why bother embarrassing themselves and just let nature take its course? Moore could very well win, but I dont buy what your friend is selling.

If true, presumably to mend fences with Moore for once he is in the Senate so that he is somewhat more likely to play nice with the other Republican senators. I think the negatives for the RNC in running ads supporting Moore (versus just staying silent on the sidelines) are basically nonexistent outside of the political in-crowd. Whatever damage he does to the party is done by being the official Republican Party candidate and not being denounced publicly.

[IceSpear]

-Moore has led in most recent polls and in most cases by somewhere between 3-6 points
whereas in Virginia Northam remained either in the lead or was tied in most late polls.

Polling underestimated Democrats by a lot in VA, it could easily happen again in this race. Almost no one predicted that McCaskill would win in a landslide either because the "state was just too Republican", and yet she outperformed her RCP polling average by 10 percentage points. Some posters also dismissed any poll that showed John Bel Edwards up significantly as junk because there was no way a Democrat could win over so many "racist LA hicks" in a special election, how did that turn out again?

Actually, you can see in my predictions that even though I was wrong about Vitter winning, I still had it as a tossup. As opposed to this race which I've always had at safe R. Louisiana is not the same as Alabama.

[IceSpear]

I'm waiting any day now for the cops to bust down his door for possession of child pornography and for him to still refuse to drop out while getting booked at the county jail.

FAKE POLICE!! FAKE CHARGES !! RIGGED SYSTEM!!

Doug Jones put those there man....I swear!

No, it was (((Soros))).

Roy Moore goes full anti-Semite:

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Is that the same place pedophiles go?

[IceSpear]

Obvious grain of salt, but someone I know that works (low level) in the RNC says they decided to go back in for Moore because their data shows he is very likely to win.

No way. I Trust Gravis.

[Pericles]

-Moore has led in most recent polls and in most cases by somewhere between 3-6 points
whereas in Virginia Northam remained either in the lead or was tied in most late polls.

Polling underestimated Democrats by a lot in VA, it could easily happen again in this race. Almost no one predicted that McCaskill would win in a landslide either because the "state was just too Republican", and yet she outperformed her RCP polling average by 10 percentage points. Some posters also dismissed any poll that showed John Bel Edwards up significantly as junk because there was no way a Democrat could win over so many "racist LA hicks" in a special election, how did that turn out again?

Actually, you can see in my predictions that even though I was wrong about Vitter winning, I still had it as a tossup. As opposed to this race which I've always had at safe R. Louisiana is not the same as Alabama.

Indeed, that's why Doug will win relatively narrowly and not in a landslide.

[Ruby2014]

If Bobby Bright, Parker Griffith, or Craig Ford ran for this seat they would have one. Doug Jones is too liberal to win in Alabama. And most of the teenage girls were over the age of 16 which is the age of consent in Alabama. And the 14 year old would be a legal violation and many people don't believe she's telling the truth enough that they'll vote for him anyway and hope he didn't do it. If the Senate Ethics Committee investigates and proves he did it they'll likely expell him. Then Mo Brooks would likely run in another special election. If they can't prove he did it then a pro-life, pro-gun Democrat could run in 2020 and put the seat in play.

[junior chįmp]

Steve "liquor cabinet" Bannon got BTFO

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[NOVA Green]

I'm waiting any day now for the cops to bust down his door for possession of child pornography and for him to still refuse to drop out while getting booked at the county jail.

FAKE POLICE!! FAKE CHARGES !! RIGGED SYSTEM!!

Doug Jones put those there man....I swear!

No, it was (((Soros))).

Roy Moore goes full anti-Semite:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Libs love to throw around buzz words; where does Moore degrade Soros for being of Jewish heritage?

I'm going to point out that as someone who is Jewish, that is as obvious as a dog-whistle as you are going to get for someone who is an anti-semite.

Absolutely agree on your point....

Still, the problem for Moore is also that 30% of Alabama Whites are not Evangelical Christians, and appear to heavily favor Jones.

Even if it was a deliberate attempt to mobilize the sliver of Alabama White evangelicals that are Anti-Semites, one would imagine it wouldn't accomplish much since they are already on-board with Moore, and if anything backfire in the areas where Jones needs to maximize his vote (Metro Mobile, Birmingham, and Huntsville, all of which have relatively large Jewish-American communities that work closely with the leaderships of a wide variety of Religious Denominations on Interfaith issues)...

One should also note that this statement, combined with Mitt Romney's comments, and the traditional reluctance of most mainline Evangelical Denominations in Alabama to get explicitly involved in politics (Since their role is to preach the Gospel and expand the flock, and not get involved too much directly into items that could divide their flock in what is a very competitive marketplace in a very religious State like Alabama), these types of statements don't roll too well.

Most Muslim-Americans in Alabama are African-Americans who have friends, family members and neighbors that are Christian, which is yet another religious minority that Moore has targeted repeatedly in the past.

So, although I agree that Moore might well be trying to use these dog whistles, I'm not convinced it will help him more than hurt him (Think Strange voters in the Metro Birmingham, Mobile, and Huntsville, not to mention elsewhere).

[NOVA Green]

Kaitlan Collins‏ @kaitlancollins 31 minutes ago
Requests for absentee ballots are way up in Alabama. Madison County, the third most populated, has sent out 2,900 & received 2,016 so far. That's much higher than the 650 they sent during the runoff & even surpasses the 1,900 they received during 2014 governor's race.

Kaitlan Collins @kaitlancollins 7 minutes ago
Replying to @kaitlancollins
Officials in Mobile County, the second most populated, tell me they have sent out nearly 2,000 absentee ballots.

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/938132179170873349

Thanks Castro!

Knew we were finally got to get some decent posts on this trash thread!!!!

Keep the Tide Rollin'.....   

[Holmes]

The most annoying thing to read is people's crappy #takes before an election is even over. VA-Gov was full of them.

[Pericles]

The most annoying thing to read is people's crappy #takes before an election is even over. VA-Gov was full of them.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Have Jones and Moore debated at all?

[Former Kentuckian]

No, they haven't debated because Moore won't allow it. He only allowed one debate with Strange and it was more of a conversation than a debate. Moore is a terrible public speaker known for numerous gaffes and embarrassing mistakes, so he refuses debates in his races as much as possible.

[MAINEiac4434]

Have Jones and Moore debated at all?

Moore's scared, so they haven't.

[Cactus Jack]

Have Jones and Moore debated at all?

Moore's scared, so they haven't.

So scared, apparently, that he even let Jones have control of the TV advertising market, too!

[Mr. Smith]

Have Jones and Moore debated at all?

Moore's scared, so they haven't.

So scared, apparently, that he even let Jones have control of the TV advertising market, too!

Hillary also had most of that market, as did Rubio in the primaries. In short: bad argument

[Virginiá]

Have Jones and Moore debated at all?

Moore's scared, so they haven't.

So scared, apparently, that he even let Jones have control of the TV advertising market, too!

Hillary also had most of that market, as did Rubio in the primaries. In short: bad argument

Yes I'm not sure if dumping most of his haul into ads was a smart idea. In Alabama it should be pretty clear that a win is going to come from superior turnout. I mean for his almost complete air dominance, what does he have to show for it - a polling trend back to Moore?

[Mr. Smith]

Have Jones and Moore debated at all?

Moore's scared, so they haven't.

So scared, apparently, that he even let Jones have control of the TV advertising market, too!

Hillary also had most of that market, as did Rubio in the primaries. In short: bad argument

Yes I'm not sure if dumping most of his haul into ads was a smart idea. In Alabama it should be pretty clear that a win is going to come from superior turnout. I mean for his almost complete air dominance, what does he have to show for it - a polling trend back to Moore?

To be fair, he wouldn't have any chance against even a scandal-ridden Moore without it.

He would've been as lucky as Ron Crumpton or Parker Griffifth without it.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I know this means nothing but apparently Moore was dating his wife while she was still married to her previous husband. Add another log to the evangelical voters are hypocrites fire http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/court-records-suggest-roy-moore-dated-wife-while-she-was-still-married/article/2642679

[NOVA Green]

Have Jones and Moore debated at all?

Moore's scared, so they haven't.

So scared, apparently, that he even let Jones have control of the TV advertising market, too!

Hillary also had most of that market, as did Rubio in the primaries. In short: bad argument

Yes I'm not sure if dumping most of his haul into ads was a smart idea. In Alabama it should be pretty clear that a win is going to come from superior turnout. I mean for his almost complete air dominance, what does he have to show for it - a polling trend back to Moore?

What choice did he have?

Arguably Alabama has one of the weakest and most decimated Grass-Roots County/Municipal level Democratic Party structure of almost any State in the Nation....

I mean, it's not like you want to spend a ton of money trying to entice Liberal Democratic college kids from the North to come out and canvas and go door to door trying to relate to your average 'Bama persuadable voter.

The Democratic Party should have invested in Alabama quite some time back, as should have been the case as part of a 50 State strategy....

Lack of grassroots organizing and campaign databases over a few decades, leaves little choice but stumping, local media coverage, and the air war....

Hell, even in overwhelmingly Republican Country in Montgomery County Texas (73-23 Trump), a major Suburban/Exurban County outside of Houston not that many Miles from where I lived not long back, there was a more vibrant and active Democratic Party than there is in most of Alabama, outside of Jefferson County and a few Democratic Cities such as Mobile and Tuscaloosa, throw in some other larger Cities such as Huntsville, etc....

Do we know that his campaign hasn't invested money into normal type GOTV activities, many of which are arguably relatively inexpensive???

Still harder to mobilize a base at the last minute, when likely the campaign didn't have the resources to invest in a major experienced Pro earlier in the race, that would have been able to prioritize traditional GOTV methods, versus spending your last minute windfalls on expensive ads (Iron Bowl springs to mind)....

IDK.... I don't see the Jones campaign to blame here, but rather they become flush with last minute capitol investment after the Moore Sexual Assault stories broke, and needed to try to invest quickly to hit Media markets throughout the State, of which there are quite a few, to attempt to maximize the exposure and impact.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I know this means nothing but apparently Moore was dating his wife while she was still married to her previous husband. Add another log to the evangelical voters are hypocrites fire http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/court-records-suggest-roy-moore-dated-wife-while-she-was-still-married/article/2642679

I did not know his wife was previously married. I think I'm going to have to withdraw my endorsement. This is completely unprincipled and anti-Christian degeneracy.

[Dr. Arch]

I know this means nothing but apparently Moore was dating his wife while she was still married to her previous husband. Add another log to the evangelical voters are hypocrites fire http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/court-records-suggest-roy-moore-dated-wife-while-she-was-still-married/article/2642679

I did not know his wife was previously married. I think I'm going to have to withdraw my endorsement. This is completely unprincipled and anti-Christian degeneracy.

You're the biggest hyperbolic troll in history, lol. It took me a long time to understand you.

[Alabama_Indy10]

If Bobby Bright, Parker Griffith, or Craig Ford ran for this seat they would have one. Doug Jones is too liberal to win in Alabama. And most of the teenage girls were over the age of 16 which is the age of consent in Alabama. And the 14 year old would be a legal violation and many people don't believe she's telling the truth enough that they'll vote for him anyway and hope he didn't do it. If the Senate Ethics Committee investigates and proves he did it they'll likely expell him. Then Mo Brooks would likely run in another special election. If they can't prove he did it then a pro-life, pro-gun Democrat could run in 2020 and put the seat in play.

Parker Griffith?? LOL

And Mo Brooks is a whole lot more popular on this forum than he is in Alabama.

[Mr. Smith]

If Bobby Bright, Parker Griffith, or Craig Ford ran for this seat they would have one. Doug Jones is too liberal to win in Alabama. And most of the teenage girls were over the age of 16 which is the age of consent in Alabama. And the 14 year old would be a legal violation and many people don't believe she's telling the truth enough that they'll vote for him anyway and hope he didn't do it. If the Senate Ethics Committee investigates and proves he did it they'll likely expell him. Then Mo Brooks would likely run in another special election. If they can't prove he did it then a pro-life, pro-gun Democrat could run in 2020 and put the seat in play.

No, no they wouldn't have. (Both to the question of in anyone would be doing better than Jones AND if the "Ethics" Committee would expel an extra majority vote)

[Pandaguineapig]

If Bobby Bright, Parker Griffith, or Craig Ford ran for this seat they would have one. Doug Jones is too liberal to win in Alabama. And most of the teenage girls were over the age of 16 which is the age of consent in Alabama. And the 14 year old would be a legal violation and many people don't believe she's telling the truth enough that they'll vote for him anyway and hope he didn't do it. If the Senate Ethics Committee investigates and proves he did it they'll likely expell him. Then Mo Brooks would likely run in another special election. If they can't prove he did it then a pro-life, pro-gun Democrat could run in 2020 and put the seat in play.

No, no they wouldn't have. (Both to the question of in anyone would be doing better than Jones AND if the "Ethics" Committee would expel an extra majority vote)

Why wouldn't they expel Moore, even if he's an "extra majority vote" Alabama has a republican governor who would appoint a non-toxic senator like Roby or Aderholt