Spanish elections and politics

[ag]

PSOE: 68 abstain, 15 No, 1 resigned (Pedro Sánchez)

The 15 holdouts include the 7 members of PSC. I have a feeling, the will soon be sending Madrid officials to substitute for bulls in the reimposed Barcelona corrida.

[Nanwe]

New government:
New ministers in italics

President: Mariano Rajoy Brey (PP)
Vice-president. Minister of the Presidency and of Territorial Administrations: Soraya Saénz de Santamaría (loses spokesperson role)
Minister of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation: Alfonso Dastis Quecedo. Dastis is the former Spanish representative to the COREPER and former ambassador to the Netherlands.
Minister of Justice: Rafael Catalá.
Minister of Defence: María Dolores de Cospedal. Cospedal is, needless to say, the current general secretary of the PP and former President of Castilla-La Mancha
Minister of Finances and the Civil Service: Cristóbal Montoro
Minister of the Interior: Juan Ignacio Zoido. Former mayor of Sevilla.
Minister of Public Works: Íñigo de la Serna Hernáiz. Mayor of Santander since 2007.
Minister of Education, Culture and Sports. Government Spokersperson: Íñigo Méndez de Vigo (gains spokesperson role).
Minister of Labour and Social Security: Fátima Báñez
Ministry of Energy, Tourism and the Digital Agenda: Álvaro Nadal Belda. Current secretary of state of Economy.
Ministry of Agriculture, Fishing, Food and Environment: Isabel García Tejerina
Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness: Luis de Guindos (gains Industry)
Ministry of Health, Social Services and Equality: Dolors Montserrat. Mayor of San Sadurní de Noya, Barcelona. Second spokesperson of the PP in the Congress.

Lots of contuinuism, as it was to be expected from Rajoy. The new ministers seem to be little-known figures, with the exception of Cospedal, who either respond to a technocratic profile (Dastis, Nadal Belda) or to a capacity to be popular despite adverse situation, like keeping the majority in your city even in 2015 (De la Serna Hernáiz) or being a centre-right mayor in Sevilla. So to some degree people who happen to have more conciliatory or wider appeal than the 'regular' PP. Also, although Soraya gains more power, she loses some and her biggest rival in the party (Cospedal) and his allies (Zoido) enter the cabinet. Monteserrat hailing from the PPC makes sure there are still Catalans in the cabinet after the dismissal of Fernández Díaz. It's all about the equilibrium with Rajoy, although the Sorayos have clearly crushed the G-8.

The re-creation of the ministry of Territorial Administrations points towards Rajoy seeking a new approach to Catalonia, which is about damn time. Not to be confused with a referendum, though. The new ministers are all younger (not young though, no Casado, Maroto, Levy, etc.), which I think will help in dealing with Ciudadanos and enforcing the government pact's agenda. It does seem like a more conciliatory government, although who knows, since the new figures are essentially unknown to the population. Perhaps pointing towards a generational renewal of the party, too.

EDIT: Hard to tell whether Guindos or Montoro will be more important as we don't know yet who'll hold the chair of the Delegated Commission for Economic Affairs, which coordinates all the ministries and activity of the economic area.

[Nanwe]

In other, interesting things, El País released an incredibly interesting analysis of the sociological background of all the Spanish ministers since the Suárez I government. According to it, your average Spanish ministry hails from the province of Madrid, is a former civil servant and he (because it's a he ofc) studied Law in university.

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[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Rajoy may have topped "corruption? What does that have the economy?" with this fantastic analogy:

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We should probably restart this thread tbh, as PSOE gets round to choosing a leader and the Catalonia crisis goes on and on.

[Mike88]

Rajoy may have topped "corruption? What does that have the economy?" with this fantastic analogy:

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We should probably restart this thread tbh, as PSOE gets round to choosing a leader and the Catalonia crisis goes on and on.

I agree. Adding to what you said Crabcake, El Mundo newspaper is reporting that Rajoy doesn't have support to approve the budget in Parliament. Rajoy may actually be the luckiest politician in the world currently. If his budget isn't approved, probably another election may have to happen and with the PSOE leadership still very fresh and Podemos is complete civil war, Rajoy and the PP can simply say to the electorate: "they don't present an alternative, they don't let me govern the country. Had enough?".   

[Zinneke]

Rajoy may have topped "corruption? What does that have the economy?" with this fantastic analogy:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

We should probably restart this thread tbh, as PSOE gets round to choosing a leader and the Catalonia crisis goes on and on.

I agree. Adding to what you said Crabcake, El Mundo newspaper is reporting that Rajoy doesn't have support to approve the budget in Parliament. Rajoy may actually be the luckiest politician in the world currently. If his budget isn't approved, probably another election may have to happen and with the PSOE leadership still very fresh and Podemos is complete civil war, Rajoy and the PP can simply say to the electorate: "they don't present an alternative, they don't let me govern the country. Had enough?".  

PP is losing voters rapidly to C's in the polls though.

[Mike88]

That's true Rogier, although Spanish polls aren't very reliable. But the point i was stretching is that there is no alternative, at the moment, to Mr. Rajoy. Trying to block him could be counterproductive. Remember the 2016 election.

This hole Murcia scandal is what has stained the relations between the PP and C's. The C's wants the current President ousted and a new PP president sworn in or new elections. All of this because of the PP money schemes. If an election is held again in Murcia, polls show there would be a repetition of the 2015 election results.

[Zinneke]

That's true Rogier, although Spanish polls aren't very reliable. But the point i was stretching is that there is no alternative, at the moment, to Mr. Rajoy. Trying to block him could be counterproductive. Remember the 2016 election.

This hole Murcia scandal is what has stained the relations between the PP and C's. The C's wants the current President ousted and a new PP president sworn in or new elections. All of this because of the PP money schemes. If an election is held again in Murcia, polls show there would be a repetition of the 2015 election results.

Do you know who is going to run for the PSOE leadership, apart from Susana Diaz? Is she the favourite?

[Mike88]

That's true Rogier, although Spanish polls aren't very reliable. But the point i was stretching is that there is no alternative, at the moment, to Mr. Rajoy. Trying to block him could be counterproductive. Remember the 2016 election.

This hole Murcia scandal is what has stained the relations between the PP and C's. The C's wants the current President ousted and a new PP president sworn in or new elections. All of this because of the PP money schemes. If an election is held again in Murcia, polls show there would be a repetition of the 2015 election results.

Do you know who is going to run for the PSOE leadership, apart from Susana Diaz? Is she the favourite?

Pedro Sanchéz, former PSOE leader, and Patxi Lopéz, former president of the Basque Country. At the moment polls are favouring Sanchéz and Lopéz. Susana Diaz is polling in third place, perhaps because she is delaying and delaying her announcement.

But i wouldn't read to much the polls. In 2014 Sanchéz was behind, but close, to Eduardo Madina and he end up winning by more 12 points. It will be an interesting race to watch as two moderate PSOE leaders face Sanchéz who wants an approximation with Podemos.

[MaxQue]

That's true Rogier, although Spanish polls aren't very reliable. But the point i was stretching is that there is no alternative, at the moment, to Mr. Rajoy. Trying to block him could be counterproductive. Remember the 2016 election.

This hole Murcia scandal is what has stained the relations between the PP and C's. The C's wants the current President ousted and a new PP president sworn in or new elections. All of this because of the PP money schemes. If an election is held again in Murcia, polls show there would be a repetition of the 2015 election results.

Do you know who is going to run for the PSOE leadership, apart from Susana Diaz? Is she the favourite?

Pedro Sanchéz, former PSOE leader, and Patxi Lopéz, former president of the Basque Country. At the moment polls are favouring Sanchéz and Lopéz. Susana Diaz is polling in third place, perhaps because she is delaying and delaying her announcement.

But i wouldn't read to much the polls. In 2014 Sanchéz was behind, but close, to Eduardo Madina and he end up winning by more 12 points. It will be an interesting race to watch as two moderate PSOE leaders face Sanchéz who wants an approximation with Podemos.

Moderate? Diaz would be in PP if she was living elsewhere than Andalusia.

[Velasco]

Rajoy may have topped "corruption? What does that have the economy?" with this fantastic analogy:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

We should probably restart this thread tbh, as PSOE gets round to choosing a leader and the Catalonia crisis goes on and on.

I agree. Adding to what you said Crabcake, El Mundo newspaper is reporting that Rajoy doesn't have support to approve the budget in Parliament. Rajoy may actually be the luckiest politician in the world currently. If his budget isn't approved, probably another election may have to happen and with the PSOE leadership still very fresh and Podemos is complete civil war, Rajoy and the PP can simply say to the electorate: "they don't present an alternative, they don't let me govern the country. Had enough?".   

PP is losing voters rapidly to C's in the polls though.

Mariano Rajoy must deal with C's and PNV in order to pass the budget. I think that Mr Rajoy will succeed, even though addressing the demands of the oranges and the Basque nationalists might require somewhat complicated balances. Given the lack of alternative, the possibility of calling a fresh election is like a nuclear button in Rajoy's hands. PSOE is in a pitiful state, while Podemos held a convention in January where it was staged the deep rift between Pablo Iglesias and Ïñigo Errejón supporters. Simultaneously, Mr Rajoy was acclaimed in the PP convention. I don't think that later polls indicate that PP is losing ground to C's.

 

[Velasco]

That's true Rogier, although Spanish polls aren't very reliable. But the point i was stretching is that there is no alternative, at the moment, to Mr. Rajoy. Trying to block him could be counterproductive. Remember the 2016 election.

This hole Murcia scandal is what has stained the relations between the PP and C's. The C's wants the current President ousted and a new PP president sworn in or new elections. All of this because of the PP money schemes. If an election is held again in Murcia, polls show there would be a repetition of the 2015 election results.

Do you know who is going to run for the PSOE leadership, apart from Susana Diaz? Is she the favourite?

Pedro Sánchez, former PSOE leader, and Patxi López, former president of the Basque Country. At the moment polls are favouring Sánchez and López. Susana Diaz is polling in third place, perhaps because she is delaying and delaying her announcement.

But i wouldn't read to much the polls. In 2014 Sánchez was behind, but close, to Eduardo Madina and he end up winning by more 12 points. It will be an interesting race to watch as two moderate PSOE leaders face Sánchez who wants an approximation with Podemos.

I haven't seen polls on the PSOE leadership race. Susana Díaz is regarded the favourite and has the support of the party apparatus and is backed by most of regional leaders. However, there is concern among the advocates of Ms Díaz because Pedro Sánchez retains a considerable support among the angry grassroots. In a rally held in the Andalusian town of Cádiz, Sánchez gathered a sizeable crowd. In the screen behind the stand, it was played a video of Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo endorsing Sánchez. The polarisation between Díaz and Sánchez will likely relegate Patxi López to the third place.

[Mike88]

I don't think that later polls indicate that PP is losing ground to C's.

I believe he was referring to the Metroscopia poll from last Saturday, which has the following numbers (compared with the poll from January):

31.2% ( -2.0%) PP
21.5% ( -0.2%) UP
19.0% ( -0.1%) PSOE
16.5% (+1.0%) C's

[Velasco]

I don't think that later polls indicate that PP is losing ground to C's.

I believe he was referring to the Metroscopia poll from last Saturday, which has the following numbers (compared with the poll from January):

31.2% ( -2.0%) PP
21.5% ( -0.2%) UP
19.0% ( -0.1%) PSOE
16.5% (+1.0%) C's

OK, it's the last Metroscopia poll. Maybe Spanish polls are not among the more reliable, as I think you said previously. Metroscopia in particular has strange oscillations between one poll and another, as well it tends to overpoll Ciudadanos. According to other polls released recently (Invymark and Sigma Dos) C's is oscillating between 12% and 13% of the vote, while PP is between 33% and 34%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Spanish_general_election

[Mike88]

I agree with you on Metroscopia. Comparing with other polling firms, they are overpolling C's and in the past they overpolled heavily the PSOE. I think they were the only pollster to put the PSOE ahead of PP during the 2011-2015 legislature.

Personally i follow 3 polling companies in Spain: Celeste-Tel, NC Report and CIS. For me, these 3 are the most accurate. And speaking of Celeste-Tel, they just released a new poll, and it has completely different results in comparison with Metroscopia:

35.6% (+0.2) 148/150 PP
22.1% (+1.0)     80/83 PSOE
19.3% ( -0.2)     65/66 UP
12.1% (+0.1)     26/28 C's
  2.8%                     10 ERC
  1.6%                       7 PDC
  1.2%                       5 PNV
  0.9%                    2/3 Bildu
  0.3%                       1 CC
  4.1%                          Others

Link.

[Velasco]

I don't trust NC Report and Celeste-Tel very much and the PP seems overpolled in their last releases. Probably it's better taking into account the CIS and a mix of the other pollsters (including SigmaDos, GESOP, Invymark, MyWord etcetera) in order to make and average and try to spot the trend.

[Zinneke]

Have ERC basically overtaken the Convergents in Catalunya as the leading nationalist power in the polls? How much has it to do with the latter´s rebranding?

[Velasco]

Have ERC basically overtaken the Convergents in Catalunya as the leading nationalist power in the polls? How much has it to do with the latter´s rebranding?

Pretty much, yes. Convergencia 's rebranding looks like a desperate attempt to put a corrupt past behind.


The last news is that High Court of Justice if Catalonia has banned Artur Mas from public posts for a period of two years. The reason is that Mas, by that time regional premier, organised that informal independence referendum held in Catalonia in November 2014. It's the first time that a chief of a regional government is sentenced for disobedience of a judicial resolution. Even though Mr Mas is going to appeal, electoral legislation prevents that he can run for an office. That's a problem for Mr Mas, because he had the intent of running for the PDECat (formerly CDC or Convergència) in the next regional election, In case Artur Mas was still a member of the Parliament of Catalonia (he was elected in the JxSI list), he could have retained his seat because the sentence would not have been executed until the appeal was solved. Another two top regional officials were sentenced: Vice premier Joana Ortega and Minister of Education Irene Rigau. The latter is the only one who currently holds a public office as member of the regional parliament.   

[Mike88]

DYM poll for the Congress and the PSOE leadership:

Congress:

31.0% PP
20.0% PSOE
19.9% UP
16.2% C's

PSOE leadership:



Congress vote with the different PSOE candidates:

If Lopéz was leader:

29.8% PP
25.2% PSOE
19.8% UP
13.6% C's

If Sanchéz was leader:

29.9% PP
24.5% PSOE
17.8% UP
16.0% C's

If Díaz was leader:

29.7% PP
24.2% UP
18.9% PSOE
15.4% C's

Poll conducted between 7 and 15 March. Polled 1,010 voters. MoE of ±3.1%

Link.

[MAINEiac4434]

LOL Diaz.

[Mike88]

Election projection by Jaime Miquel (political analist):

Vote share:


Seats in Congress:


Link.

[Mike88]

Poll from Invymark to La Sexta:

32.6% PP
21.9% UP
21.0% PSOE
13.4% C's

Link.

[MaxQue]

Good to see when crypto-PP Diaz is polling badly.

[Mike88]

NC Report poll for La Razón newspaper:



Poll conducted between 13 and 17 March. Polled 1,000 voters. MoE of 3.1%

The PP is highly overrated in this poll. This poll has 58.5% turnout... For Spanish levels that's very low and probably not very accurate. But put it in the average.

Link.

[ApatheticAustrian]

as "semi-local" mike said, could be an outlier but at some point, i guess, the PP is going to become strong enough cause all other options are more difficult.