Presidential Ratings and Predictions - South Dakota

[ElectionsGuy]

Two votes. One for a rating (Safe D, Lean R, Toss-Up, etc.) and one for a prediction of who will win (Clinton, Trump, or Other).

Note: If you think Johnson/Other will win a state, just vote 'Other' and don't vote for a rating.

Update/vote in these threads if you haven't already! There's no time limit and you can still affect the overall result:

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Ratings

Safe Clinton: 183
Likely Clinton: 22
Lean Clinton: 35
Toss-Up: 70
Lean Trump: 37
Likely Trump: 27
Safe Trump: 60

Clinton: 240
Trump: 124
Toss-Up: 70

Predictions

Clinton: 291✔
Trump: 143

South Dakota: Safe R, 55-40 Trump.

A little early on this one but I won't have any time tomorrow. Iowa, NE-02, and Ohio still close!

[Xing]

Safe D because of the Happy Farmers.

Just kidding. Safe R, but it could be a bit closer than expected. I'll say Trump 53-43.

[evergreenarbor]

Safe R.

Trump: 52%
Clinton: 40%
Johnson: 8%
Other: 0%

[Illiniwek]

Safe R, but I voted likely R to give a nod to hillarys odd success there.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Likely R. I'll say Trump 52-45 for now.

[Gass3268]

Hillary Clinton has never lost South Dakota.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Safe R - but the margin could be a surprise.

[peterthlee]

Likely R
Trump 51-45-4

[elcorazon]

Likely R
Trump will most likely take it, but if the trend continues, it could be slightly competitive in a Clinton landslide

[ElectionsGuy]

Likely R
Trump will most likely take it, but if the trend continues, it could be slightly competitive in a Clinton landslide

What trend? I'm completely lost as to why everyone thinks this will be 'surprisingly competitive'. She won a Democratic primary twice? What else?

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Likely R
Trump will most likely take it, but if the trend continues, it could be slightly competitive in a Clinton landslide

What trend? I'm completely lost as to why everyone thinks this will be 'surprisingly competitive'. She won a Democratic primary twice? What else?

Trump's primary performance in the state was pretty weak considering he was the only active candidate by then. And in 2008 GE, SD was closer than ND even though everyone including the Obama and McCain campaigns thought it would be the other way around.

[elcorazon]

Likely R
Trump will most likely take it, but if the trend continues, it could be slightly competitive in a Clinton landslide

What trend? I'm completely lost as to why everyone thinks this will be 'surprisingly competitive'. She won a Democratic primary twice? What else?

not a trend in SD, but the trend of Trump shooting himself in the foot and Hillary pulling away. In a double digit Clinton win, SD will be fairly close.

[Xing]

SD isn't trending Democratic, but it is fairly elastic, so it's more susceptible to large swings (it was a single-digit race in 2008.) Also, considering how badly Trump seems to be doing in Kansas, that could mean he's doing badly in the Dakotas as well. And while winning the primary twice doesn't mean all of SD loves Hillary, it's noteworthy since she lost most of the surrounding states both times, so as our favorite analyst Nate Silver said, some SD voters might have a "soft spot" for her. It might not be a lot of voters, but we're talking about a small state here, so if Clinton is more popular there than in surrounding states, that could translate to it at least being closer than expected.

[Tiger front]

Safe R.
Trump 53%
Clinton 42%
Other 5%

[tinman64]

Safe R.

Trump 54
Clinton 42
Others 4

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Safe R
Trump 56-42-2

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Safe R, Trump 58-39