Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[pbrower2a]

I don't know if Gallup has caught the trend or if it is just an outlier (likely it is), but I still expect we'll have a Post-Mueller bump. Mueller-fever has had the all MSM:s airtime in two long years. Mueller will testify in May, and, I'd say, that Collusion-coverage will mostly dies off by the fall.

Whatever the NEW news coverage will be about, it'll likely be way better for Trump than Mueller's investigation coverage with talking heads seeing the things.

It could also be that Trump supporters are less likely to read the report and are willing to accept that there is noting there. Reading the report takes intellectual effort.

[Person Man]

Most likely, there’s this MSM narrative that with Trump in there, there’s plenty of room at the top and that individuals are still struggling because they haven’t gotten around to claiming their spot yet. Also the fact that it never mattered that Trump is a crook because the voters knowingly already consented to him to rule, rather than to govern. Many even centrist voters also think having something as close as possible to a monarchy increases national prestige and civic pride. Especially when it’s someone who has allegedly almost infinite wealth.

[James Monroe]

https://twitter.com/marcushjohnson/status/1124012566265716736

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/marcushjohnson/status/1124012566265716736

Statewide polls, of which I have seen few since the release of the Mueller Report, could be interesting. If this  even split of the white electorate were even across the country, then President Trump would be facing a nearly-complete loss in the Electoral College. All Hispanic minorities (except perhaps Cuban-Americans) are Democratic-leaning, and all non-white minorities are anti-Trump.

 

[GeorgiaModerate]

NBC/WSJ, April 28-May 1, 900 adults (1-month change)

Approve 46 (+3)
Disapprove 51 (-2)

Strongly approve 29 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 41 (-2)

This is Trump's best result in this poll since October.  It's generally one of his better pollsters.

Full story at https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/hung-jury-public-remains-divided-over-mueller-probe-new-nbc-n1001886.

[pbrower2a]

Wow! It's hard for me to believe that the Mueller Report didn't cause Trump approval ratings to crater. Could it be that Trump supporters are in an impenetrable bubble? So the big mean Deep State and mainstream media have been picking upon the Great and Infallible Leader.

I might be the wrong person to interpret this, but

1. Many people have never even started to read the Mueller Report. To say that Trump would have won in 2016 without aid from Russian intelligence services is now specious. Whether one read even a part of it may depend upon whether one wants to connect Donald Trump to shady behavior or whether one does not want to believe such.

2. Many people do not understand how the law works. The legal definitions in statutory law and the rules of evidence are rigid. Nobody can spin a legal definition to say that some unauthorized taking of property is not larceny. Most people do what they can to have as few interactions with the legal system as possible because such dealings are usually expensive and devoid of any fun.

3. Those who still tend to believe Trump or want to achieve his agenda may assume that redactions are of exculpatory material. Yes, I hold Donald Trump in contempt even as a person, but I assume that exculpation would be for all to see. It is easier to exculpate than to convict. But why would exculpation be redacted?

4. Trump supporters are circling the wagons, so to speak. But over time one can expect some news to slip through the bubble.  Material behind "Harm to Ongoing Matter" and "Grand Jury" remains protected. Any exculpation would not be protected material. It is not my position to assume either exculpation or criminal activity  redacted from the report; such is a legal matter not open to public knowledge.  There can be no question that even if Donald Trump did not order or direct cheating he did nothing to tell people to not cheat on his behalf. 


5. Even if this poll is accurate, it suggests that Trump approval is low enough to give a Democrat a strong edge in 2020.   

[Bandit3 the Worker]

It would be nice if the media didn't praise every little thing the little fascist did. The local news is full of nothing but praise for the Great Leader. One of the local news sites even ran an article written by the local electric monopoly praising Trump's tax "cut." And no, it wasn't labeled as an op-ed.

[Thatkat04]

The Mueller report will be a campaign issue, and the dem nominee will bring it up when questioning Trump's ethics and behavior. But as of now, since Trump wasn't indicted, it'll fade into the background and Trump's numbers will return to the usual -10 equilibrium its been in for over a year. Not surprising, but disappointing.

[pbrower2a]

It would be nice if the media didn't praise every little thing the little fascist did. The local news is full of nothing but praise for the Great Leader. One of the local news sites even ran an article written by the local electric monopoly praising Trump's tax "cut." And no, it wasn't labeled as an op-ed.

Kentucky, huh? One of Trump's strongest states. Greater Louisville, Kentucky suburbs of Cincinnati, and maybe a college town or two are the few places in Kentucky in which Trump would do badly in any election.

Kentucky is not attractive to people moving in from out of state, so it is not drifting D as have Colorado and Virginia and such states as Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas are drifting. Educational standards are poor, so people are less likely to see something wrong with Trump rhetoric. In essence, if one did well in high-school geometry (a usual divide for being able to get through or get anything out of a college education) one can apply formal logic to political rhetoric and catch either propaganda or logical gaps.

How bad is Kentucky? One demographic indicator is that Kentuckians are the heaviest smokers in America by state. Smoking and socio-economic status (SES) are negatively correlated. Smoking is an anathema in elite events. One sees few people smoking outside Symphony Hall or near art galleries, but I see employees of dollar stores out for smoking breaks. A hint: never take a pack of cancerettes  to an interview for a job that pays much over the minimum wage. Kentucky also has an average state credit score far below the national average. No, it is not that Kentuckians are racking up huge credit-card bills at JC Penney, Wal*Mart, and Target -- it is that they are having a tough time paying rent, taxes, and utilities, which really wrecks one's credit rating.

Trump support remains strongest among under-educated white people, and that describes Kentucky far better than most states. Under-educated people are the ones most likely to fall for demagoguery of any kind and for any propaganda that fits their culture. It is telling that totalitarian regimes function most effectively among people barely literate, as in Stalin's Soviet Union, Mao's China, Castro's Cuba, "Socialist" Burma, Franco's Spain, thug Japan, North Korea,  fascist Italy, Ba'athist Iraq and Syria, ISIS-occupied areas, and wartime satellites (Finland clearly excepted as it was well-educated and never even authoritarian) of Nazi Germany. Hitler debased formal education in Germany to the extent that German prisoners of the US were found to typically need remedial education -- in a country once proud of its educational achievements. A hint: a degree from a German university was respected if from before 1933. From 1933 until 1945 a degree from German universities was suspect because the Nazis debased the universities into diploma mills. After 1945 a German university degree is respected again.

Totalitarian regimes are good at getting people to learn to read -- but not to think. The very word intelligence suggests the knack for 'reading between the lines'. The totalitarian state wants people to read so that it can accept propaganda and perhaps read instructions -- but it does not want people to think. To think is to question the authority of questionable leaders, and that requires the ability to see contradictions and thus either foolishness or deliberate deceit.

...I have seen the same sort of propaganda on a TV station owned by Sinclair (a/k/a "Stinking Liar") Broadcasting, at least until I quit watching that station's local news. "Stinking Liar" owns TV stations in Lexington, Cape Girardeau MO, Huntington WV, and Cincinnati,  which means penetration of big parts of Kentucky -- but surprisingly not areas in the Louisville market or near Evansville, Indiana). Of course FoX News is everywhere, and it tends to reinforce right-wing ideas. Although straight reporting on FoX is reliable, analysis on FoX is spin.

As low as educational standards are in Kentucky, it is easy to understand how low the journalistic standards are in small towns and small cities. All newspapers are struggling financially, but small-town papers are really struggling. The line between advertising and journalism is ideally clear in reputable papers, with corporate op-eds identified as such. In small towns, advertising as editorials might be good for sale of some more papers. Maybe the Podunk Tribune dares not sell advertising as news coverage, but it might get to run off a few hundred copies to sell to the entity that offered the story. That could be the difference between staying in business and going under.

In time, more people will be exposed to the reality of the awfulness of the Trump Presidency. 48% of the vote went against him, and that percentage will not shrink in 2020. Democrats got the majority of the votes for Congress in a state that went by 9.41% for Trump in 2016, as well in three other states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) that went for him -- and a plurality in Arizona went for Democrats in House elections. Trump's Party lost the total vote in all states for House elections in states that he lost. The Congressional vote allowed Americans to send a message; I question whether the President got the message.



    
    

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

https://twitter.com/marcushjohnson/status/1124012566265716736

#BlacksForTrump is literally just down to a white family named the blacks.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/kimguilfoyle/status/1125446622672855043

[Reaganfan]

Chuck Todd complimented President Trump on the economy on MTP yesterday and now the entire google newsfeed on Trump is talking about rising approvals. Good day for the Prez.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Chuck Todd complimented President Trump on the economy on MTP yesterday and now the entire google newsfeed on Trump is talking about rising approvals. Good day for the Prez.

So now "the Fake News" is suddenly credible?

Seriously though, what specific policy has Trump introduced to make people think that he should be credited with the economic stability we are seeing? This doesn't just apply to him actually, it goes for any President. It's a real pet peeve of mine for Americans to simplistically associate the economy with the President. The economy as a concept isn't that simplistic, there is much more that affects it than who the President is. A President can certainly influence and affect it, but never to the point where they are the sole reason why an economy is good or bad. I wish Americans would stop thinking this way and understand the real job of the President and what they can and cannot do. Though, thanks to his party being spineless shills for him, Trump seems to be indicating that the President can in fact do anything. Trump's soft support really are the worst people in the country.

What has he even done lately to cause this improvement in his approval ratings overall? Because trampling over the Constitution, threatening immigrants with new pointless restrictions, and failing to get North Korea to decrease their nuclear program, among other failings of his; seem to clearly not matter to the simple-minded, short-term memory having people of this surely doomed nation.

I'm getting ahead of myself though. His poll numbers are bound to dip again, as is always the case and I guess I just take solace that these kind of polls are happening now as opposed to in October of November of next year, because these are the kind of numbers (in spite of still being kind of crappy) that indicate his re-election, by the Trump standard of course. If we do see  numbers similar to these again at that time, game over. This country is his and his party's and will be even more unrecognizable after another four years of him being President.

[Person Man]

Chuck Todd complimented President Trump on the economy on MTP yesterday and now the entire google newsfeed on Trump is talking about rising approvals. Good day for the Prez.

So now "the Fake News" is suddenly credible?

Seriously though, what specific policy has Trump introduced to make people think that he should be credited with the economic stability we are seeing? This doesn't just apply to him actually, it goes for any President. It's a real pet peeve of mine for Americans to simplistically associate the economy with the President. The economy as a concept isn't that simplistic, there is much more that affects it than who the President is. A President can certainly influence and affect it, but never to the point where they are the sole reason why an economy is good or bad. I wish Americans would stop thinking this way and understand the real job of the President and what they can and cannot do. Though, thanks to his party being spineless shills for him, Trump seems to be indicating that the President can in fact do anything. Trump's soft support really are the worst people in the country.

What has he even done lately to cause this improvement in his approval ratings overall? Because trampling over the Constitution, threatening immigrants with new pointless restrictions, and failing to get North Korea to decrease their nuclear program, among other failings of his; seem to clearly not matter to the simple-minded, short-term memory having people of this surely doomed nation.

I'm getting ahead of myself though. His poll numbers are bound to dip again, as is always the case and I guess I just take solace that these kind of polls are happening now as opposed to in October of November of next year, because these are the kind of numbers (in spite of still being kind of crappy) that indicate his re-election, by the Trump standard of course. If we do see  numbers similar to these again at that time, game over. This country is his and his party's and will be even more unrecognizable after another four years of him being President.

In Trump we trust, right?

[Gass3268]

Morning Consult state tracking polls

[Annatar]

IBD/TIPP poll

43(+2)/50(-2) compared to last iteration of poll.

Trump approval in this poll is now the highest ever at 43%, in net approval, 2nd highest at -7, only first poll done in January 2017 had higher net approval at 42/48.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult state tracking polls

These are surprisingly plausible for Morning Consult.

[Woody]

Trumpmentum.

[pbrower2a]

Morning Consult state tracking polls

Trade Indiana for Arizona, and it is identical to Obama in 2008.

Indiana? Trump can lose with Indiana, but no Republican has won the Presidency since the 1920s without winning the state by double digits. Net approval for the President in Indiana is only +3 (see also Georgia and Texas). Although net approval is not identical to the likely result in a forthcoming election, it is usually close.

Trumpmentum.

Yup. Down the drain or into the maelstrom.

[Person Man]

That could be the ceiling for a Democrat with maybe Texas or Georgia, but not both.

[GeorgiaModerate]

St. Leo University, April 22-29, 1000 adults (change from Feb.)

Approve 42 (+2)
Disapprove 55 (-3)

Strongly approve 22
Strongly disapprove 44

[Person Man]

St. Leo University, April 22-29, 1000 adults (change from Feb.)

Approve 42 (+2)
Disapprove 55 (-3)

Strongly approve 22
Strongly disapprove 44

Has Trumps performance actually improved?

[GeorgiaModerate]

St. Leo University, April 22-29, 1000 adults (change from Feb.)

Approve 42 (+2)
Disapprove 55 (-3)

Strongly approve 22
Strongly disapprove 44

Has Trumps performance actually improved?

His approval has bounced up a bit in the averages.  He's currently at -9.3 at 538, which is the closest it's been since just before the shutdown in December.

[pbrower2a]

St. Leo University, April 22-29, 1000 adults (change from Feb.)

Approve 42 (+2)
Disapprove 55 (-3)

Strongly approve 22
Strongly disapprove 44

Has Trumps performance actually improved?

A 2% change either way is within the margin of error.

This is not one of my favorite pollsters, as it usually has a huge D advantage. If you dislike this poll, then just wait for another. Florida will be polled often. Trump is not winning Florida with a disapproval rating in the mid-fifties in this state.
 
Louisiana. A state that rarely gets polled on a one-state basis. The focus is on a gubernatorial race. The incumbent Democrat, John Bel Edwards, leads in a jungle primary but does not clinch in it -- but also projects to win against the Republicans in the run-off election.   

The poll also found Donald Trump’s support his slipped slightly. While Louisiana supported Trump during the 2016 election by a 58%-38% margin, his approval rating in the new survey is 54%, with 37% disapproval.

https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/politics/elections/article_d72d7be2-7113-11e9-b659-77c319cf23d6.html

This is consistent with the tepid polling performances of the President that we have seen in Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas. Louisiana is not like one of those other states. I see Trump winning Louisiana, but not by his 2016 numbers. It does not change the map. 

Trump, net approval positive -- raw approval

55% and higher
50-54%
under 50%

tie (white)

Trump, net negative approval -- raw approval

43-49% with disapproval under 51% if approval 45% or higher
40-42%, or under 45% if disapproval is over 51%
under 40%

[Skye]

Louisiana, JMC Analytics 650 RV, 25-27, 29 April. Moe 3.8%.

Approve: 54%
Disapprove: 37%