Untabulated Presidential Votes in 1940

I have found 12,301 votes cast in the 1940 General Election that have not been tabulated in any secondary source that I have looked at (including Congressional Quarterly and Clerk of the House).

In my annual drive between Eastern Massachusetts and Upstate New York, I often stop into a very deep repository of past election data – the New York State Library in Albany to collect additional past election data. This trip was a bit different, as I spent some time four floors above the library in the New York State Archives. Here, they have many original hand-written and typed records of election returns. Among the new data that I collected, was a sheet of write-in returns for the State of New York for the office of President in 1940. The document, titled “Statement of scattering vote cast as the General Election for Electors of President and Vice-President”, tabulated 12,301 write-ins for President. Write-in Ballots for 1940 President New York p1 These votes include 11,289 for Communist Party candidate Earl Browder, 121 votes for Socialist Labor candidate John Aiken, and 891 votes for scattered write-ins. The vast majority of these write-in votes were recorded in the New York City boroughs of Bronx, Kings, and New York, where Browder received about 0.5% of the vote in these Counties as a write-in. The document only includes write-ins for 12 of New York’s 62 counties. Some of the larger counties, such as Erie, are absent, so it is likely that there are even more votes for Browder that are uncounted. These votes will soon be added to the Atlas election results database.

Primary Relevance

I was contacted this week by a reporter from the Austin American-Statesman newspaper in Austin, TX with a question about a story that they are working on. He wants to present a data that can visually represent the relevance of the Texas Primary to the Presidential nominating process. Texas holds its primary on the old “Super Tuesday”, March 4, 2008 – after 35 other states have already held their contests (20 states – give or take – now vote on a single day, February 5, 2008, a date that has been dubbed “Super Duper Tuesday”). The Republicans allocate 65% of their delegates prior to March 4 and the Democrats allocate 55% (the Democratic number is a reduced due to the penalty applied to Michigan and Florida for violating party rules by placing their nomination contests prior to February 5. These two states have been stripped of all delegates. The Republican number is reduced due to the penalty applied to Florida, Michigan, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Wyoming for violating party rules. The delegate count for these states has been reduced by half.)

In response to this request, I have created an additional feature – on each of the polling state summary pages, there is a new section that shows the number of delegates awarded prior to the date on which the state-under-view holds its contest. In addition, a new graph shows the projected delegate count for the top candidates as allocated by the states holding primaries and caucuses earlier than the given state. This graph also shows the projected delegate standing as a function of time – as the polling data evolves with the campaigns.

If the line representing the leading candidate is above the bold win line (half-delegates + 1), then the state contest is no longer relevant, otherwise, the delegates awarded for the state contest are helping to determine the party nominee. Currently, the Texas Democratic Primary and the Texas Republican Primary are both relevant, as no candidate has exceeded the number of delegates needed to secure the nomination prior to March 4. These charts will be updated as the campaign unfolds.

Projected Delegate Allocation Prior to this Contest:
TX Delegate Projection Chart

New Atlas Weblogs

The Atlas Weblog system has been upgraded to WordPress Mu – a scaleable blogging system for multiple users. Please send me a note if you have an interest in publishing your own free weblog on this site. The system also includes custom pages and will support your own weblog ads, if desired.

New Predictions for 2008


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Prediction scripts are now available for the 2008 Senate Election and the 2008 Gubernatorial contests (joining the already-available 2008 Presidential Predictions. The 2006 Senate aggregate prediction called 32 of 33 contests correctly – only missing Virginia. The 2006 Gubernatorial aggregate prediction called 35 of 36 contests correctly – only missing in Minnesota. Give a try at election prognostication! Continue reading

The 2008 Primary Mock Elections

With all the clamoring amongst the states to move primary contests to the front of the line, the Atlas has decided to leapfrog them all, unveiling today the 2008 Presidential Primary Mock Election contests: the 2008 Republican Mock Election and 2008 Democratic Mock Election. The Atlas Mock Elections in each state are set up as open primaries (meaning that any registered voter of any party affiliation may cast a ballot in either the Democratic or Republican primary). In the real primary and caucus system, each state sets the rules for participation:

  • Open primaries allow voters of any party affiliation to vote
  • Modified open primaries allow independent or unaffiliated voters as well as those affiliated with the party holding the election contest
  • Closed primaries limit the participants to those registered with the party holding the election contest

The allocation of delegates for the Atlas Mock Primaries are modeled after the rules for each state – typically awarding delegates proportional to the popular vote in a given state or via winner-take-all (the same system as 48 states and the District of Columbia use in the general election to award Presidential Electors). In the real primary system, a certain set of delegates are allocated via the vote in congressional districts – this level of detail has been omitted on the Atlas mock election – where all the district delegates are awarded as part of the “at large” group. Overall, the primary process is quite complex.

Go now and cast your ballot!

Election 2006 Official Updates

Election data and maps from the 2006 General Election for U.S. Senate and Governor for most states have been uploaded to the site. A few states remain to release their official data, including my home state of Massachusetts. The expectation is for these data to be available within the next couple of weeks. The detailed county and town-level spreadsheets have also been updated with the most recently-available information.

Election Results 2006

Preliminary, unofficial election results (data and maps) for the 2006 Senate and Governor’s races are on-line. These data will be updated as election agencies across the country finalize and post official tallies. A final official compilation of data for all states is expected in early January. Population data for 2006 will be added when these data are released by the Census Bureau. Preliminary detailed spreadsheet files for these contests are available at the store. As always, once purchased, updates to spreadsheets are free.

Vote Today

Vote Today is election day. If you are reading this, you are most likely an election enthusiast and will likely vote – but in the off chance that you are considering not voting, here is my encouragement to do so. Exercise your right to choose the people who govern us. Don’t like the candidates running? write someone in. Turned off by the negativity and lack of civil debate? No one will ever know if you stay home. Most states have several choices on the ballot – Politics1 highlights many of the candidates running for state and federal offices.

I cast my ballot this morning – a fill-in-the-oval paper ballot to be read by an optical scanner. This is a fast, relatively accurate system with full independent audit capability. Here in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, there are unfortunately not a lot of contested races – my Representative in Congress in the 4th district, Barney Frank (D), is unopposed. The Senate race (Edward Kennedy (D)) has not been competitive, Secretary of State, Treasurer, and Auditor have no Republican challenger (they do however, have either Green-Rainbow or Working Families party challengers). The Governor’s race has been, by far, the most interesting and productive public debate (although the campaign was too negative in my opinion). There are three interesting ballot initiatives, however, and I cast my support for Question 2, allowing candidates to run on multiple ballot lines, more commonly referred to as fusion.

The Atlas will be posting updates throughout the evening for Senatorial and Gubernatorial races across the nation.