Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Texas

[ElectionsGuy]

Two votes. One for a rating (Safe D, Lean R, Toss-Up, etc.) and one for a prediction of who will win (Clinton, Trump, or Other).

Note: If you think Johnson/Other will win a state, just vote 'Other' and don't vote for a rating.

Update/vote in these threads if you haven't already! There's no time limit and you can still affect the overall result:

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Ratings

ME-02: Toss-Up --> Lean D
Pennsylvania: Lean D --> Likely D

Safe Clinton: 183
Likely Clinton: 42
Lean Clinton: 16
Toss-Up: 69
Lean Trump: 37
Likely Trump: 27
Safe Trump: 74

Clinton: 241
Trump: 138
Toss-Up: 69

Predictions

Ohio: Trump --> Clinton

Clinton: 310✔
Trump: 138

Texas: Likely R, 52-44 Trump.

Ohio has flipped to Clinton by 1 vote.

[ElectionsGuy]

Genuine Tossup; Clinton ekes out a win.

Even in Texas, there are limits to how well Trump can do among Hispanics.

Let's try out a scenario. Let's say this happens (a very favorable scenario for Clinton)

Whites (55%): 74% Trump, 22% Clinton
Latinos (25%): 80% Clinton, 15% Trump
Blacks (13%): 90% Clinton, 8% Trump
Other (7%): 65% Clinton, 30% Trump

This ends up at about a tie, 48-48. This assumes Clinton wins 80-15 among Latinos and Latino turnout increases significantly, and whites swing to Clinton, and blacks/other makes up more of the electorate as well.

Don't be so overconfident.

[ElectionsGuy]

Past results are updated. I'm also going to change to Likely R because I've now seen polls where Clinton is leading nationally by 9-11 points and Texas has a higher than average college educated white percentage of the electorate, one that could potentially spill into Clinton's column if she were to campaign in the state. However, I still stand by my points made in the thread and don't think its competitive.