Canada 2008: Official Thread

[Hatman 🍁]

St John's East poll:

Jack Harris (NDP) 52.3%
Walter Noel (Lib) 8.7%
Craig Westcott (Cons) 8.2%
Undecided 30.4%

WTF

Harris is backed by Williams.

Even still, I have a hard time believing that the result would be that lopsided.

Why not? The Liberal and Conservative candidates are jokes, and Harris is immensely popular with enormous crossover appeal. Of course, he may end up being more trouble than he's worth to the federal NDP caucus.

Why? He's a true NDPer, he was the leader of the provincial party.

Yes, and he was (and really still is) the star of the party. He'll never be the star of the federal NDP, though, and that can be a very hard transition. Most internal party feuds aren't political, they're personal (think Copps, Stronach/MacKay, etc.), and Harris strikes me as being at least a potential danger for that kind of rift, especially combined with Newfoundland's extreme anti-federal government irritableness. I'm not saying it's likely, but it's something to watch out for. A lot of politicians have trouble transitioning from being big fish in small ponds to the national stage.

I can see him being a star in the party. Being the lone MP from a province does that.

Eh, maybe. Mulcair is certainly ambitious and a star, but I'm not sure that ambition is helping the NDP much. And not many politicians would be happy with playing the role of Yvon Godin.

He's doing alright for himself.

Interesting. There was one in the paper from a week ago that showed a landslide for John Baird in Ottawa West-Nepean.

That's because John Baird rocks my world.

TMI. You know, for what it's worth, the guy is widely known to be gay (although he is not open about it). Interestingly, the MPP for the same riding, Jim Watson is in the same boat. And, they are pretty good friends (even though Watson is a Liberal, they were both young tories)

[minionofmidas]

That was a great comment: "If you can't do your job as Leader of the Opposition, how can you ask people to vote for you for Prime Minister"

That one looks unfair. Poor Dion trying to understand what's being fired at him in rapid English.

I like the first two snippets far better.

[Smid]

Interesting. There was one in the paper from a week ago that showed a landslide for John Baird in Ottawa West-Nepean.

That's because John Baird rocks my world.

TMI. You know, for what it's worth, the guy is widely known to be gay (although he is not open about it). Interestingly, the MPP for the same riding, Jim Watson is in the same boat. And, they are pretty good friends (even though Watson is a Liberal, they were both young tories)

I'm aware of that, but I'm a big fan. He's a good bloke. I don't know that he's not open about it, I think he just doesn't make it identify him, if you know what I mean. I don't think he hides it or keeps it a secret, he just doesn't flaunt it or whatever.

[Hatman 🍁]

well, not enough evidence to put it on Wikipedia.

[MaxQue]

Yesterday Harris-Decima poll, who is late because another should be published later today.

Harris-Decima Canada

CPC: 35 (-2)
LPC: 22 (0)
NDP: 20 (+2)
GPC: 13 (+1)
BQ: 9 (0)

Harris-Decima Quebec

BQ: 37 (-1)
CPC: 22 (-5)
LPC: 17 (0)
NDP: 13 (+2)
GPC: 8 (+3)

[Hatman 🍁]

there's your debate bump.

[cinyc]

there's your debate bump.

The French debate bump is working its way into the polling for sure - probably fully factored in today's polling.  The Tories continue to lose ground in Quebec, which doesn't bode well for winning a majority government.

I think we need to wait another day or so to measure the full English language debate bump (if there is one).

[Hatman 🍁]

there's your debate bump.

The French debate bump is working its way into the polling for sure - probably fully factored in today's polling.  The Tories continue to lose ground in Quebec, which doesn't bode well for winning a majority government.

I think we need to wait another day or so to measure the full English language debate bump (if there is one).

How else would explain the 2 point increase for the NDP?

[Meeker]

Does anyone know of a good non-partisan blog that follows the Canadian election? I'm dying to get more detailed coverage than the CBC and CTV

[cinyc]

there's your debate bump.

The French debate bump is working its way into the polling for sure - probably fully factored in today's polling.  The Tories continue to lose ground in Quebec, which doesn't bode well for winning a majority government.

I think we need to wait another day or so to measure the full English language debate bump (if there is one).

How else would explain the 2 point increase for the NDP?

Statistical noise, until proven otherwise later in the week (as early as today). 

The posted Harris/Decima poll was taken from September 30 (Tuesday) through October 3 (Friday).  Given that the debates ended around 11PM, I doubt much of Wednesday's polling included large post-French debate samples or Thursday's polling included large post-English debate samples.  So the poll is half post-French debate - perhaps enough to see a trend emerging - and 1/4 post-English debate - too soon to know if there's a trend or just statistical noise.  Monday's results, which fell off when Friday's were added, could have been less NDP-friendly for whatever reason. 

We're going to have to wait until Monday's results for Harris/Decima to fully reflect the French debate results, and Tuesday for the English-language debates.   Other polls based on three-day averages should fully reflect the French debate today and English debate tomorrow. 

[Hash]

Harris-Decima seems really fishy these days. Especially for the Greenies and Ontario.

[Hatman 🍁]

A 2 point bump for the NDP is not "statistical noise".

[Hatman 🍁]

Does anyone know of a good non-partisan blog that follows the Canadian election? I'm dying to get more detailed coverage than the CBC and CTV

www.democraticspace.com

[Meeker]

Does anyone know of a good non-partisan blog that follows the Canadian election? I'm dying to get more detailed coverage than the CBC and CTV

www.democraticspace.com

Why thank you.

[War on Want]

Since American politics has been boring me lately I have finally decided to follow the Canadian elections closer. Any good sites explaining the close races and polls?

[Hatman 🍁]

Since American politics has been boring me lately I have finally decided to follow the Canadian elections closer. Any good sites explaining the close races and polls?

www.electionprediction.org
www.nodice.ca
www.democraticspace.com

[Hash]

Since American politics has been boring me lately I have finally decided to follow the Canadian elections closer. Any good sites explaining the close races and polls?

Election Prediction is good. There's a lot of spin and kooks in the comments, but it's fine overall.

DemoSpace is good, but his predictions are deceiving this time 'round.

CBC, of course.

But, I'm very biased towards Pundits' Guide. It's excellent. It has census data, cool statistics, financial stuff, and allows you to sort ridings by stuff.

Or try Wikipedia. They have all the opinion polls on one page and a list of candidates.

And, as a general rule, avoid Elections Canada. Their site makes me barf.

Or you can PM me. I'd be happy to explain a few thingees.

[Hatman 🍁]

I should use pundit's guide more often, it's run by an NDPer.

[Hash]

I should use pundit's guide more often, it's run by an NDPer.

You're such an extreme hack.

[Hatman 🍁]

I should use pundit's guide more often, it's run by an NDPer.

You're such an extreme hack.

Wait, how is that hackish? It's just a way of showing my support for a fellow dipper. Solidarity, you know?

[MaxQue]

Nanos Canada

CPC: 34 (-2)
LPC: 30 (+2)
NDP: 19 (0)
BQ: 10 (0)
GPC: 7 (-1)

Nanos Quebec

BQ: 41 (+1)
LPC: 28 (+2)
CPC: 16 (-1)
NDP: 10 (+2)
GPC: 6 (-2)

Harris-Decima of the day according to Canoe

Harris-Decima Canada

CPC: 34 (-1)
LPC: 24 (+2)
NDP: 20 (0)
GPC: 13 (0)
BQ: 8 (-1)

Harris-Decima Quebec

BQ: 33 (-4)
LPC: 22 (+5)
CPC: 21 (-1)
NDP: 12 (-1)
GPC: 9 (+1)

[Хahar 🤔]

How is Richard Côté related to Guy Côté? He's the Bloc candidate against Arthur.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How is Richard Côté related to Guy Côté? He's the Bloc candidate against Arthur.

At some level, almost certainly. Could be a long way back though.

[cinyc]

A 2 point bump for the NDP is not "statistical noise".

A one day 2-point bump for any party in one poll may be statistical noise.  Or not.

A 2-point movement is within the margin of error.  You have to wait a few days to decide whether it is statistical noise or a trend.   And in any event, the full bump (if any) from the debates should be factored into the Monday or Tuesday polling, not Saturday's.  Compare Tuesday's Harris/Decima poll to Friday's to determine whether the parties received any bump or decline as a result of the English debates.

[Hatman 🍁]

How is Richard Côté related to Guy Côté? He's the Bloc candidate against Arthur.

Cote is a very common name in Quebec.