Florida and Ohio
This is a post relating to my comment to wormwood’s post with regard to the possiblity of a victory for Bush without Ohio or Florida. His assertion is that it is unlikely that a Republican candidate can win any midwestern states (excluding IN, MO) and simultaneously lose Ohio. Below is a trend graph that highlights the recent electoral history of the result for the Republican Presidential Candidate (the percentages are relative to the result for each Republican nationally in the respective election years)
This graph includes results for the midwestern states of Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Missouri, Ohio plus Florida. The rank order of these midwestern states is idential between 1996 and 2000 - and almost parallel. From these data, wormwood’s assumption that other midwestern states will not likely “cross-over” to Bush without Ohio is reasonable.
Note the opposite trend in Florida. If the voting trend shown in the graph continues into 2004, it appears that Bush will lose Florida before he will lose Ohio. Without Florida, Bush must pick up Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Mexico or Oregon, while keeping New Hampshire and West Virginia.
leip Profile
August 19th, 2004 at 1:25 pm
I’m trying to send a trackback to your site but am unable to. The given link doesn’t seem complete. Is there something wrong?
August 19th, 2004 at 6:01 pm
I think that the trackback url should be http://uselectionatlas.org/BLOG/b2trackback.php/73
October 5th, 2004 at 3:02 pm
[…] d have just made something like that up. I didn’t have to go far before I found this entry on Dave’s blog (he really proving to be useful for making me look bad) explai […]
October 5th, 2004 at 3:07 pm
[…] d have just made something like that up. I didn’t have to go far before I found this entry on Dave’s blog (he really proving to be useful for making me look bad) explai […]
October 5th, 2004 at 3:16 pm
Enlightened about Ohio
At some point in time, I thought myself into believing that no president had been elected without winning Ohio, so I wanted to make sure I haven’t been spreading vicious lies and rumors around so I started looking for a site that had election results …
October 28th, 2004 at 6:05 am
Hello im from Belgium and i just spent a quarter on your graph cauz sthg hurt me : missouri who always voted the winner has voted Clinton in 96 so it should be the same on the graph and it isnt please pm the answer good continuation!
January 5th, 2005 at 2:08 am
[…] d have just made something like that up. I didn’t have to go far before I found this entry on Dave’s blog (he’s really proving to be useful for making me look […]