Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Tender Branson]

Wow! ÖVP is larger than SPÖ and FPÖ togheter!

Never happened before, presumably?

Never.

And not only that: SPÖ+FPÖ+(BZÖ) (the working class parties) always had a majority together, until now.

There are 2 main reasons why this is not the case now:

* SPÖ+FPÖ both had scandals or a very ineffective campaign this time
* the economic situation in the country is good, with low unemployment and a budget surplus. This helps the traditional bourgeoisie parties (ÖVP+Greens+NEOS).

[Tender Branson]

Wow! ÖVP is larger than SPÖ and FPÖ togheter!

Never happened before, presumably?

Never.

And not only that: SPÖ+FPÖ+(BZÖ) (the working class parties) always had a majority together, until now.

There are 2 main reasons why this is not the case now:

* SPÖ+FPÖ both had scandals or a very ineffective campaign this time
* the economic situation in the country is good, with low unemployment and a budget surplus. This helps the traditional bourgeoisie parties (ÖVP+Greens+NEOS).

Not entirely correct ... in 1966, the ÖVP had 48.4% and SPÖ+FPÖ just 48%.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Why did the Greens do so awfully in 2017 - winning zero seats - and then completely recover in this election?

[mileslunn]

Looks like Kurz has a few options.  He can off course have the OVP-FPO coalition again, have a grand coalition (but that seems unlikely), or have a OVP-Green coalition with no need to include Neos.  The most obvious would be OVP-Neos but that doesn't have the numbers and not sure including them in a three way will make it any more stable.

[Walmart_shopper]

Looks like Kurz has a few options.  He can off course have the OVP-FPO coalition again, have a grand coalition (but that seems unlikely), or have a OVP-Green coalition with no need to include Neos.  The most obvious would be OVP-Neos but that doesn't have the numbers and not sure including them in a three way will make it any more stable.

I actually don't get why he'd even hesitate to bring the Greens into government. He's a charismatic, young, idealogically flexible leader of a party full of frumpy, middle class old dudes in the sticks. He's a younger, better looking David Cameron. At some point the OVP has to expand its base to include the next generation, which happens to love the Greens. By "greening" the OVP Kurtz can enable the OVP to become the big tent party of government that Merkel has in Germany and that the Social Democrats obce had in Austria.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Tender you seriously didn't know the Bernd Höcke meme?
People do watch the Heute Show here (if you don't Tender, you absolutely should!), at least in my segment of Austrian society.

Maybe young people watch it.

Older (30+), rural people certainly do not watch the Heute Show.

If you're interested in what the German heute show thinks about the Austrian election, here's the video; a fellow Austrian of yours is also having his say - and, well, he doesn't mince matters about his idol Norbert Hofer. 😂

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Why did the Greens do so awfully in 2017 - winning zero seats - and then completely recover in this election?

They had a factional disaster, with their student wing splitting off and causing tremendous embarrassment with their radicalness, a leadership change and finally a big split with the Pilz List.

Partially this was just returning to the norm, but they benefited from the increased attention to climate issues, the successes of thw German Greens and a mediocre SPO campaign.

[jimrtex]

Nice visualisation of how seat allocation works in Austria:

https://vis.strategieanalysen.at/mandate/

How are the individual MPs determined.

One slide showed the number of mandates per constituency was based on the 2011 Census, but would be somewhat different based on 2019 population. What was used for this election? Since Austria no longer has a census, can these numbers be adjusted annually?

What is the mathematical method for apportioning mandates? Is this done nationally, or by state, then by constituency?

Weinviertel was shown as gaining two mandates (from 5 to 7) based on 2019. Is this suburban growth? Are the boundaries of Vienna more or less permanent? Since Vienna North would have also gained a mandate, and Vienna Inner West would lose one, would this reflect northward growth in the city? Why is this so?

Is it feasible/practicable to commute to Vienna on a daily basis from Czechia, Slovakia, or Hungary?

If a party is only contesting select states, and wins a mandate (likely at the state level) is that seat then excluded from the national allocation?

[DL]

What's the story behind the Greens doing so well in Voralberg?

[Tender Branson]

Why did the Greens do so awfully in 2017 - winning zero seats - and then completely recover in this election?

They had a factional disaster, with their student wing splitting off and causing tremendous embarrassment with their radicalness, a leadership change and finally a big split with the Pilz List.

Partially this was just returning to the norm, but they benefited from the increased attention to climate issues, the successes of thw German Greens and a mediocre SPO campaign.

This and their heavy support for the immigrants during the wave of 2015/16, where a lot of criminals (murderers, rapists, welfare cheaters etc.) came in.

[Tender Branson]

Nice visualisation of how seat allocation works in Austria:

https://vis.strategieanalysen.at/mandate/

How are the individual MPs determined.

First by regional electoral district, then by state, then the rest via the federal election list.

One slide showed the number of mandates per constituency was based on the 2011 Census, but would be somewhat different based on 2019 population. What was used for this election? Since Austria no longer has a census, can these numbers be adjusted annually?

Austria still has a 10-year census, the last one in 2011 and the next in 2021. Why did you assume we have no census anymore ? It's just a register-based census, not a traditional one like in the US. The seats of each R.E.D. are determined by the citizen population of the Census result in 2011. This is not updated each year. The next determination will come in 2021. The slide just used a 2019 projection, based on the latest annual numbers.

What is the mathematical method for apportioning mandates? Is this done nationally, or by state, then by constituency?

No, it's the other way around (see above). The vast majority of seats (more than 100 out of 183 are first determined by the R.E.D. results, then state, then federal.

Weinviertel was shown as gaining two mandates (from 5 to 7) based on 2019. Is this suburban growth? Are the boundaries of Vienna more or less permanent? Since Vienna North would have also gained a mandate, and Vienna Inner West would lose one, would this reflect northward growth in the city? Why is this so?

Correct. The seats are apportioned by citizenship (unlike in the US, where the whole population is used). Citizens are moving out of Vienna and into the suburbs. Vienna is only growing heavily because of non-citizens moving in. But there are some districts in Vienna, where citizens are also moving to, especially in the North.

Is it feasible/practicable to commute to Vienna on a daily basis from Czechia, Slovakia, or Hungary?

It is possible, but takes 2-3 hours and 2-3 hours back a day. The only interesting commute is between Vienna and Bratislava.

If a party is only contesting select states, and wins a mandate (likely at the state level) is that seat then excluded from the national allocation?

This would depend on the specifics of the result, but as I have said above the first allocation is at the R.E.D. level.

[Tender Branson]

What's the story behind the Greens doing so well in Voralberg?

Vorarlberg is very urban and has one of the longest Green traditions in Austria and even Europe (early 1980s).

The Vorarlberg Greens already entered state parliament there in 1984 (!) with 13% (!).

Since then they have always been a good alternative for disappointed moderate ÖVP-voters, especially because the SPÖ is historically very weak there.

[Tender Branson]

Here are all the maps you need for this election:

https://static.kurier.at/nr-wahl-2019/index.map.html

Party strength by district, then town/city.

ÖVP, SPÖ, FPÖ, Greens, NEOS, Pilz.

Then turnout by district, then town/city.

Finally, winning party by district, then town/city.

[Oryxslayer]

I particularly like this map, which I made just on the assumption that removing the dominant OVP would reveal an interesting coalition breakdown.

[Tender Branson]

Norbert Hofer has suspended Strache's FPÖ-membership today, after 7 hours of intra-party debate.

Before that, Strache already announced at a press conference that he will "completely pull out of politics" and "do something else".

https://orf.at/stories/3139392

[parochial boy]

What's the story behind the Greens doing so well in Voralberg?

Vorarlberg is very urban and has one of the longest Green traditions in Austria and even Europe (early 1980s).

But specifically, it's the Rheintal and Lake Constance - which is more a sort of densely inhabited sprawl than having any major population centres. It is basically geographically a continuation of the Swiss plateau, and linguistically and culturally resembles Eastern Switzerland more than the rest of Austria.

It's also fairly industrial. Specifically the textile industry in was historically strong, although it has declined enough that the Swiss side is seen seen as a bit of a redneck, rust belt land. These days, it's more the construction industry (eg Hilti just over the border in Liechtenstein).

That doesn't really help explain why the Greens would do well in Vorarlberg (indeed, they're weak af on the other side of the river); but there is probably a fair deal of cross-border commuting to Liechtenstein and Switzerland. Definitely to the extent that even mock euro-scepticism plays badly with the kind of person whose livelihood relies on being able to get over the border easily (cf the NEOS score in the state) - with the additional factor that a lot of the early Green movements grew out of opposition to motorway construction; and that region, owing to its geographical location, has a lot of motorways.

[rob in cal]

 Concerning the Swiss connection to Vorarlberg, there was of course the 81% yes vote to join Switzerland on the part of Vorarlberg voters in 1919.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Deeply saddening to see another of the historical social democratic European parties slowly crumble to pieces, but obviously SPÖ deserves most of the blame for its own demise. At least the combined left vote is a little higher than 2017, thanks to the Green surge. And FPÖ has been set back for a few years (though I'm sure they'll slowly creep their way up again, there's no stopping these forces long-term it seems).

I can't believe Kurz genuinely expected to form another government with FPÖ after he brought the previous one down. This is like Salvini trying to patch things up with Di Maio after he saw that his attempt to f**k him over had backfired big time. This degree of shamelessness never ceases to amaze.

If ÖVP-Greens or ÖVP-Greens-NEOS is where things end up, I hope he'll be forced to reverse course on at least some of his vilest policies. Though I won't count on it.

[FredLindq]

Why is NEUS that strong in Voralberg? Is Voralberg like Germanys Baden Würtemberg i.e a strong liberal tradition which now turns green?

What's the story behind the Greens doing so well in Voralberg?

Vorarlberg is very urban and has one of the longest Green traditions in Austria and even Europe (early 1980s).

The Vorarlberg Greens already entered state parliament there in 1984 (!) with 13% (!).

Since then they have always been a good alternative for disappointed moderate ÖVP-voters, especially because the SPÖ is historically very weak there.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Question - do all Turks vote for SPO? Could they ever defect to a DENk style organisation?

[urutzizu]

Question - do all Turks vote for SPO?

Unlike with their German counterparts, I was not able to find much data on their voting in Austrian elections, but here is a poll of Austrian Citizens of Turkish Origin for the 2017 election:

34.3% NEOS
33,1 % SPÖ
10,5%  FPÖ
14%     ÖVP
8,2%    Greens

This poll was done by UETD, which is a pro-Erdogan organisation in Austria, so take with a big grain of salt. Also generally these numbers dont really add up. Parts of Vienna with a large Turkish population, such as Brigittenau and Wien-Süd, do not have a disproportionately large Vote share for NEOS compared to the rest of Vienna, quite the opposite. Rather it seems they are still reliable SPÖ strongholds. So I would say the SPÖ is still the Party of Choice for most Austrian Turks.

Could they ever defect to a DENk style organisation?

Unlikely. Issue is twofold: First, unlike the Netherlands, Austria has a electoral threshold that effectively cuts off such an attempt. Even if all of the eligible Turks would vote and voted for such a party, it would fail at the Threshold with around 2,5%. They would need significant support among other Muslims. And even then Turnout among all Muslims (Turkish or not) is far lower across the board than for other voters. Add to that, that the Turkish population is not growing very fast, at least not compared to other Immigrant groups.  
Second is the nationality law. The Austrian nationality law is one of the strictest in Europe, with a full ban, strictly enforced, of dual citizenship. Nationality is never granted to Children born in Austria to a Turkish or any foreign citizen, unlike in Germany. The only way to receive Austrian Citizenship is through 10 Years Residence+ Language and Integration requirements+ and giving up any other nationality. On top of that the fees are some of highest in Europe. For this reason the rate of foreigners naturalising is very low, and a large section of the Turkish population holds only Turkish citizenship, even if they have lived in Austria for 2/3+ Generations. And its why, of the some 300.000 people of Turkish origin in Austria only about 120.000 are Citizens with the ability to vote. And generally those are the ones who will feel loyal or connected to Austria, and who were ready to voluntarily give up their Turkish citizenship. So they are unlikely to vote for a Denk-style party, unlike the Turks in the Netherlands who by contrast have dual citizenship in many cases (312.000), despite a de jure ban on it, and where the naturalisation was/is easier and more common.
That said on a local level Austria already has "Gemeinsam für Wien" in Vienna that is basically a Erdogan-front connected to the aforementioned UETD. It has a single seat in some districts, such as Simmering, where Threshold doesnt apply. They got only 0,91% of the vote in Vienna in 2015 however.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Tender Branson]

Why is NEOS that strong in Voralberg? Is Voralberg like Germany's Baden Würtemberg i.e a strong liberal tradition which now turns green?

Vorarlberg can be compared to BW, yes, language- and politics-wise. But in the the case of BW, it's mostly their very popular Green Governor which explains the strong standing of the Greens there.

Why are the liberal NEOS so strong in Vorarlberg ? Much like the Greens, NEOS tends to do well in urban areas and Vorarlberg is very urban. It is also the home state of NEOS-founder Matthias Strolz and of the current European Parliament member Claudia Gamon. Vorarlberg is also very small and big business- and manufacturing minded and that's where NEOS does well.

Vorarlberg is also a bit like Utah:

In state elections, it is solidly ÖVP (50%) - because they like the moderate style of their Governor Markus Wallner on immigration. But in federal elections, the ÖVP with Kurz is not even getting 35%, because voters do not like his tough policies on immigration etc. Same with UT: they vote 60-70% Republican for anyone but Trump (45%).

[Tender Branson]

So, the last 2 days saw intra-party meetings of all parties, where they discussed their election results. The FPÖ kicked out Strache and the SPÖ replaced their general secretary. The Greens decided that they will go for exploration talks with Kurz if they are invited, but "see virtually no common ground with the Kurz-ÖVP going forward, unless they change a lot on several topics".

Today, Kurz (ÖVP), Rendi-Wagner (SPÖ) and Hofer (FPÖ) were all invited by President Van der Bellen and talked with him for 1 hour each.

Kurz told VdB that "voters made clear that they want his way to continue" and that "he's ready to lead the next government again".

Rendi-Wagner said she wants to renew the party, would be willing to take responsibility for the country and voters and enter into exploration talks with Kurz, if invited, with a strong focus on social topics.

Hofer told VdB that his party "prepares for opposition". But should Kurz's exploration and coalition talks fail to produce a coalition after a long time, the FPÖ's leadership committee could also "reconsider the new situation" and might enter talks with Kurz.

Meinl-Reisinger (NEOS) and Kogler (Greens) will meet VdB tomorrow.

VdB said he wants the new government to put a special and enthusiastic focus on fighting climate change and pollution. He is expected to ask Kurz to form the new government tomorrow, when the final 40k votes are counted. Kurz will likely start exploratory talks with all parties next week. If those exploratory talks are done, Kurz will announce which party/parties he will start coalition talks with.

https://orf.at/stories/3139453

[rob in cal]

  I think its smart of Hofer to leave options open.  I would imagine lots of FPO voters and supporters would be upset if their vote for the FPO meant a vote, in effect for a OVP Green government. Knowing FPO support might be possible would give Kurz some more wiggle room in negotiations with the Greens, thereby making an agreement  with them that much more difficult.