Yesterday, the Atlas was migrated to a new dedicated server using the same host provider. The content (web pages, images, databases, etc.) are now co-located on a 1.7GHz Celeron with 768MB or RAM running BSD UNIX. The move interrupted service for about 15-20 minutes during the day. The site (and particularly the forum) has grown in size and popularity. This move is expected to improve site performance, decrease response time, and reduce the number of failed database connects. Thanks to all for your patience and help through the transition.
National Popular Vote Complete
With the few small updates today (amended Ohio results, two changes in West Virginia, and reallocation of write-ins in New Hampshire and Virginia), the popular vote results of the 2004 Presidential Election are complete (note that some data are likely to be amended in the future based on analysis of precincts or county-level canvasses). The final tally is: Bush 62,041,268 (or 50.73%) vs. Kerry 59,028,908 (48.27%). Nader came in a distant third with 463,635 (0.38%) just above Badnarik at 397,157 (0.32%). Other candidates received 365,170 (0.30%). The 2004 election is the first to have a winner with a majority of the popular vote since George HW Bush defeated Michael Dukakis in 1988.
Mississippi Tally Shorts Bush 12,321 votes
I have come across a rather significant error in the certified “Total Votes Reported by County for 2004 General Election President and Vice President” as published by the Mississippi Secretary of State. The data reported from Lowndes County has Bush with 1,369 votes, Kerry with 10,408, and other candidates with 170 votes for a total of 11,947 votes cast. These data suggest that Kerry won Lowndes County with 87% of the vote – a margin of 9,039 votes. A quick look as past results for Lowndes County shows that no Democrat has won the county since 1956 (George Wallace won as an Independent in 1968). In addition, no Democratic Candidate has won more than 40% of the vote in Lowndes County since 1946. Also looking at the total votes cast, the 11,947 votes is 7,283 fewer than cast in 2000 (a drop of 38%).
This data discrepancy is explained by an error in the tallying of the votes. The trailing zero was dropped from the county total for Bush. Instead of 1,369 votes, Bush actually received 13,690 votes. This figures is confirmed by adding the precinct results from the Official Recapitulation sheet for Lowndes County. I have contacted the Mississippi Secretary of State about this error and have corrected the figure in the data tabulation on this site.
Some Official Results are In
The 2004 official results are starting to come in. Eight states now have official results posted (ID, GA, LA, ND, SC, SD, VT, WY). The site data is being updated gradually as the results from more states become available. Precinct and Congressional District Results are also being added to the site for some of these states (available to full site members). A full tally of official results is expected by mid-December.
County Map 2004
The preliminary 2004 Nationl County Map is now available.
Election 2004 Data and Maps
Data and Maps have been uploaded to reflect the preliminary unofficial results of the 2004 Presidential Election. The site survived the massive traffic spike of the last two days – and although performance was slow from time-to-time, the site appeared to respond (at least the times I tried it). Site featurs will be re-enabled as traffic subsides. Thanks to everyone for the encouraging emails. Look soon for the county-level national map and the availability of the 2004 Election Data Spreadsheet.
Kim Komando Kool Site of the Day
Today, the Atlas, is featuerd as the Kim Komando’s Kool Site of the Day at this link. This is actually the first I have heard of her show/site. There isn’t a review of the Atlas there – just a link and follow-on text “Today is election day. If you’re like me, you’ll be anxious to see the returns. It looks as close as the 2000 election. All of the major news networks (ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox, NBC, etc.) will have up-to-the-minute updates on returns. If the race is particularly close, we may not have an immediate answer. Whatever the outcome is, I hope you went to the polls and cast a vote!”
The First Votes are In
The first votes counted in the Presidential Election are those in Dixville Notch and Hart’s Location, NH. The results this year are as follows:
| Bush | Kerry | Nader | |
| Dixville Notch | 19 | 7 | 0 |
| Hart’s Location | 16 | 14 | 1 |
From four years ago, Hart’s Location had Bush 17, Gore 13. Hart’s location voted Republican in 1996 as well, giving Dole 13, Clinton 12, Perot 4, and Browne 2. Perot won Hart’s Location in 1992 with 15 votes to Bush Sr. 9 to Clinton 6.
In Dixville Notch in 2000, Bush received 21 votes, Gore 5, and Nader 1. In 1996, it voted for Bob Dole with 18 votes to Clinton’s 8. Perot’s and Browne each received 1. In 1992, Bush Sr. received 15 votes, Perot 8, Marrou (Libertarian) 5, and Clinton placed fourth with 2 votes.
Voted!
I performed my civic duty this morning, casting my ballot at my local precinct. In a non-battleground state, at 7:30 in the morning, the line was only about six people long, with perhaps 20 voters in the actual room. We use AccuVote optical scanning machines that read paper ballots in which voters fill out ovals. In my opinion, this is a good system – they are relatively accurate and the method has preserves a paper trail in the event that there is a machine malfunction or some other desire for a recount.
The ballot itself did not have many offices up for election – and most of those that were did not have competition. There was only one candidate for each Sheriff, Representative in General Court, and Councillor (all Democrats). Our Representative in Congress, Barney Frank (D-MA), did not have a Republican opponent, although there is one Unenrolled (i.e. MA term for Independent) candidate also for Representative in Congress representing the fourth district.
Election Week 2004
The plan for Election Week: Starting Monday, the main election result database will be off-line. Site members with Individual, Group, or Student licenses will continue to have access. This is necessary in order to reduce server load and conserve on bandwidth. I apologize for any inconvenience that this may cause.
Election predictions will close at 11pm EST on Monday. The polls close on the Mock Election at 5pm EST on Tuesday.
On Tuesday, I plan to update the time-line once every 30 minutes at about 10 past and 40 past each hour. State and county-level results will be posted once states reach ~ 90% precinct reporting, but not starting until around 10pm. On Wednesday morning, preliminary state and county data will be on-line. County maps will also be available. CD maps and data are only availble for those nice states with boundaries that do not cross county/town lines.
The 2004 election results will be available linked from the home page and the 2004 index page ( the national link page). Note that non-site-members will see ads with these pages. This is temporary during the high-bandwidth days. On Tuesday, the 2004 menu options will also appear in the main database for members to access.