French Legislative Election 2017

[Antonio the Sixth]

Not voting is obviously profoundly dumb

That's the worst argument you could use, because it's actually not dumb at all. Every attempt at calculating of the expected utility of voting suggests that you're better off staying home. Vote because it's the right thing to do, not because it's "rational".

Windjammer's opinions on GoT are vile and despicable, but we knew already.

[catographer]

I don't know too much about French politics (more than the average American ). The UDI looks pretty centrist/centre-right. Why are they not aligned with Macron and LREM? If LREM could get the Républicain Édouard Phillippe, should they can get the centre-right UDIs?

[adma]

Not voting is obviously profoundly dumb

That's the worst argument you could use, because it's actually not dumb at all. Every attempt at calculating of the expected utility of voting suggests that you're better off staying home. Vote because it's the right thing to do, not because it's "rational".

Windjammer's opinions on GoT are vile and despicable, but we knew already.

Y'know, when this thread descends to dreary dork discussion of Ned Stark and GoT,  all I can recommend to the lot of you is: go lose your virginity.  I'll take the reality world of elections and psephology anyday.

[Kingpoleon]

Get the f**k out of this thread you dumbass.

Lol, sorry, but I really would like to see EM's success replicated elsewhere, particularly in the UK. Plus, Corbyn really could become PM soon enough, and I think it'd be a disaster.

"Flawless, beautiful" to a tyranny-of-the-centre fault.  That is, boring as f**k.  The only un-boring thing being the plethora of first-round knockouts for sitting parliamentarians (incl. Hamon).

Maybe you do, but I don't mind politics being boring at all.

The think is, Britain was led by Flawless Beautiful Centrists from 1997-2007 and from 2010-2016. In case you hadn't noticed,  on both occasions it ended in a complete disaster.

Didn't like all recent premierships end in disaster in the UK? 2007-2010 and 2016-(hopefully 2017) probably won't be rememebered well either.

Well arguably Brown and May were both just doing a bad job of mopping up after the disasters cause by their predecessors (although that is probably quite a kind way of looking at both of them).

Alternatively, the UK has become the Weimar Germany of the 21st century

All of Europe is really Weimar Germany at this point.

Does that make Macron/Merkel Hitler with such large majorities?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Not voting is obviously profoundly dumb

That's the worst argument you could use, because it's actually not dumb at all. Every attempt at calculating of the expected utility of voting suggests that you're better off staying home. Vote because it's the right thing to do, not because it's "rational".

Windjammer's opinions on GoT are vile and despicable, but we knew already.

Y'know, when this thread descends to dreary dork discussion of Ned Stark and GoT,  all I can recommend to the lot of you is: go lose your virginity.  I'll take the reality world of elections and psephology anyday.

This election is such a complete snoozefest that I really don't see what you find so exciting to discuss.

[Zanas]

I happen to live in one of only two metropolitan constituencies where the runoff will be between PS and FI. Sadly, I also happen to vote in one of the many where it will be LREM-LR, so at least I have my day free on Sunday !

Dude, I'm going to take a couple hours and pay $20-30 in car ride to get to my polling station and cast a spoiled vote in my LREM-LR matchup. Surely you can walk to yours and spend a couple minutes do the same. Don't be one of those lazy f**ks who are the reason our democracy is a joke.

Ok, so let me explain this, because I've had this debate several times, and it's absolutely not lazyness : I've stood in line for quite some time to make my proxy to vote for fukcing Emmanuel Macron in the presidential runoff ! It's a well thought position.

I think we can agree that democracy is about making choices that can be heard, and if possible implemented. When I have a choice, I vote. In my constituency, the runoff is between generic LREM candidate #7502 and fukcing NKM. From my point of view, they are literally the exact same thing. There's not a single discernible political discrepancy between them. So I cannot make a choice between those two.

Now, I can make a democratic choice between 3 options (2 really) : blank vote/null vote, abstain.

And we come back to my definition : a choice that can be heard. There is very very little talk about the blank and null votes in the election coverage in France. I was gonna say "nobody talks about them", but this is a serious debate and I won't exaggerate. There was a bit of talk about blanks and nulls in the presidential runoff. But what everybody's talking about between those 3 democratic options I have, is turnout. We compare elections between them on turnout, not on blank and nulls. The turnout figure is nearly always annexed to the results, whereas you can often struggle to find the blanks and nulls.

Moreover, to me, voting blank or null means you care about the process, but think the candidates are equally good (blank) or equally bad (null). It's my little memento, nothing more. But I happen to actually not care about the process of this flawed to the core legislative election ! So while in the first round I could still make my choice heard by voting for a candidate who support a change in this process (an FI candidate), now that she hasn't made it to the runoff, I'm left with no choice whatsoever between two identical candidates, in a process I want to be abolished as soon as possible.

So I abstain. Only thus can my choice be heard.

To be honest, with nearly every LREM candidate making it to the runoff and a large majority of them set to win their seats, what's the only real political choice that was heard and discussed in this first round ? The choice of 30% of all voters who voted in April and wouldn't consider it in June. Of course their motivation can be diverse, and of course you can say "bloody lazy fukcs". But that's what the political class has been saying for the past decades, and it hasn't helped the turnout, on the contrary...

When the turnout drops so much between elections, you can pinpoint that the people don't consider their deputies as useful anymore. They don't believe in the legislative process as it is laid out by this constitution. And when the turnout reaches a new all-time low next Sunday, perhaps as low as 40%, said deputies are gonna have a hard time saying they represent the people.

Of course, they won't have any legal difficulty, as no quorum is required, but we all know politics is only partially about legal matters. Once the people realize that the legitimacy of this system is deeply flawed, albeit legal, they might be a tad more willing to make it change later on.

[warandwar]

^^^^^
Well said.

[DavidB.]

Yeah, good point.

[Zinneke]

Eh, in your shoes I'd hold my nose and vote NKM because 1/ she has some semblance of an ecologist platform and 2/ she is not insane like some senior figures in her party, and thus if the LREM ship would sink I'd rather have her wing at the front of LR that the ex-Sarkozystes. Other than that spot on.

[ApatheticAustrian]

I happen to live in one of only two metropolitan constituencies where the runoff will be between PS and FI. Sadly, I also happen to vote in one of the many where it will be LREM-LR, so at least I have my day free on Sunday !

Dude, I'm going to take a couple hours and pay $20-30 in car ride to get to my polling station and cast a spoiled vote in my LREM-LR matchup. Surely you can walk to yours and spend a couple minutes do the same. Don't be one of those lazy f**ks who are the reason our democracy is a joke.

you continue to be a hero of mine regarding the small stuff.

[mvd10]

And maybe NKM will vote against Macron's economic plans just because she is in opposition (like that one time US Republicans voted against Obama's temporary tax cut proposal). NKM doesn't seem like someone who would do that though.

[Tirnam]

A first runoff with one candidate, in the Aveyron 2nd the LR candidate drops out. The LREM candidate is the only one to stand Sunday.

"We have to do a lucid analysis, the constituency is historically left. In addition, it is impossible to close the gap. We must listen to the popular will and withdraw "

(results in the first round: LREM 38,72%, LR 20,18%)

[Tintrlvr]

A first runoff with one candidate, in the Aveyron 2nd the LR candidate drops out. The LREM candidate is the only one to stand Sunday.

"We have to do a lucid analysis, the constituency is historically left. In addition, it is impossible to close the gap. We must listen to the popular will and withdraw "

(results in the first round: LREM 38,72%, LR 20,18%)

This is weird. Why drop out now? Not like there's any real media attention - and the election is in less than a week. Does this mean they won't hold a run-off election? At this point I doubt that would even save money as everything should be printed and booked.

[jaichind]

A first runoff with one candidate, in the Aveyron 2nd the LR candidate drops out. The LREM candidate is the only one to stand Sunday.

"We have to do a lucid analysis, the constituency is historically left. In addition, it is impossible to close the gap. We must listen to the popular will and withdraw "

(results in the first round: LREM 38,72%, LR 20,18%)

Is there some sort of scandal related to this LR candidate.  Why drop out now ?  39 vs 20 is not that insurmountable ?

[windjammer]

A first runoff with one candidate, in the Aveyron 2nd the LR candidate drops out. The LREM candidate is the only one to stand Sunday.

"We have to do a lucid analysis, the constituency is historically left. In addition, it is impossible to close the gap. We must listen to the popular will and withdraw "

(results in the first round: LREM 38,72%, LR 20,18%)

Is there some sort of scandal related to this LR candidate.  Why drop out now ?  39 vs 20 is not that insurmountable ?

It is insurmontable

[Antonio the Sixth]

I happen to live in one of only two metropolitan constituencies where the runoff will be between PS and FI. Sadly, I also happen to vote in one of the many where it will be LREM-LR, so at least I have my day free on Sunday !

Dude, I'm going to take a couple hours and pay $20-30 in car ride to get to my polling station and cast a spoiled vote in my LREM-LR matchup. Surely you can walk to yours and spend a couple minutes do the same. Don't be one of those lazy f**ks who are the reason our democracy is a joke.

Ok, so let me explain this, because I've had this debate several times, and it's absolutely not lazyness : I've stood in line for quite some time to make my proxy to vote for fukcing Emmanuel Macron in the presidential runoff ! It's a well thought position.

I think we can agree that democracy is about making choices that can be heard, and if possible implemented. When I have a choice, I vote. In my constituency, the runoff is between generic LREM candidate #7502 and fukcing NKM. From my point of view, they are literally the exact same thing. There's not a single discernible political discrepancy between them. So I cannot make a choice between those two.

Now, I can make a democratic choice between 3 options (2 really) : blank vote/null vote, abstain.

And we come back to my definition : a choice that can be heard. There is very very little talk about the blank and null votes in the election coverage in France. I was gonna say "nobody talks about them", but this is a serious debate and I won't exaggerate. There was a bit of talk about blanks and nulls in the presidential runoff. But what everybody's talking about between those 3 democratic options I have, is turnout. We compare elections between them on turnout, not on blank and nulls. The turnout figure is nearly always annexed to the results, whereas you can often struggle to find the blanks and nulls.

Moreover, to me, voting blank or null means you care about the process, but think the candidates are equally good (blank) or equally bad (null). It's my little memento, nothing more. But I happen to actually not care about the process of this flawed to the core legislative election ! So while in the first round I could still make my choice heard by voting for a candidate who support a change in this process (an FI candidate), now that she hasn't made it to the runoff, I'm left with no choice whatsoever between two identical candidates, in a process I want to be abolished as soon as possible.

So I abstain. Only thus can my choice be heard.

To be honest, with nearly every LREM candidate making it to the runoff and a large majority of them set to win their seats, what's the only real political choice that was heard and discussed in this first round ? The choice of 30% of all voters who voted in April and wouldn't consider it in June. Of course their motivation can be diverse, and of course you can say "bloody lazy fukcs". But that's what the political class has been saying for the past decades, and it hasn't helped the turnout, on the contrary...

When the turnout drops so much between elections, you can pinpoint that the people don't consider their deputies as useful anymore. They don't believe in the legislative process as it is laid out by this constitution. And when the turnout reaches a new all-time low next Sunday, perhaps as low as 40%, said deputies are gonna have a hard time saying they represent the people.

Of course, they won't have any legal difficulty, as no quorum is required, but we all know politics is only partially about legal matters. Once the people realize that the legitimacy of this system is deeply flawed, albeit legal, they might be a tad more willing to make it change later on.

I strongly disagree with your rationale, but I understand it and I apologize for making assumptions.

[Tintrlvr]

A first runoff with one candidate, in the Aveyron 2nd the LR candidate drops out. The LREM candidate is the only one to stand Sunday.

"We have to do a lucid analysis, the constituency is historically left. In addition, it is impossible to close the gap. We must listen to the popular will and withdraw "

(results in the first round: LREM 38,72%, LR 20,18%)

Is there some sort of scandal related to this LR candidate.  Why drop out now ?  39 vs 20 is not that insurmountable ?

It is insurmontable

Agree, although this doesn't really explain the rationale for dropping out when there are only five days to go. I'd understand more if the runoff campaigns lasted for a month.

[Kingpoleon]

The unprecedented majority will have a mandate simply because of how large it appears set to be. 280 seats with turnout at 56% is less impressive and less of a mandate than 425+ seats with turnout at 48%.

[DavidB.]

The unprecedented majority will have a mandate simply because of how large it appears set to be. 280 seats with turnout at 56% is less impressive and less of a mandate than 425+ seats with turnout at 48%.

Which is why non-LREM voters could better stay home at this point -- if turnout suddenly drops to 38% instead of the expected 48% the picture will be different...

[swl]

Holding separate elections made sense when they were 2 or 3 years apart. Now that the presidential and legislative elections are a few weeks apart it doesnt make much sense anymore.
Either we vote for everything on the same day, or we make real midterms, but the current system is quite annoying. If one counts the primaries we have been voting non stop for almost six months.

[Kingpoleon]

The unprecedented majority will have a mandate simply because of how large it appears set to be. 280 seats with turnout at 56% is less impressive and less of a mandate than 425+ seats with turnout at 48%.

Which is why non-LREM voters could better stay home at this point -- if turnout suddenly drops to 38% instead of the expected 48% the picture will be different...

Considering polls aren't taking into account turnout, I really feel like the correlation thereof lends legitimacy to the mandate of Macron.

[jaichind]

PS led alliance actually made it into the second round in 88 seats.  This is a good deal more than I thought given their polling.  It seems the PS collapse is more selective and their vote held up more in their strongholds.

[ApatheticAustrian]

this is not the netherlands, imho, the left vote isn't dead, it's just diminished by tactical voters and splitting.

[adma]

PS led alliance actually made it into the second round in 88 seats.  This is a good deal more than I thought given their polling.  It seems the PS collapse is more selective and their vote held up more in their strongholds.

Unless a lot of those are dead-cat-bounce types of second, i.e. low-to-mid-teens vs REM in mid-30s...

[jaichind]

PS led alliance actually made it into the second round in 88 seats.  This is a good deal more than I thought given their polling.  It seems the PS collapse is more selective and their vote held up more in their strongholds.

Unless a lot of those are dead-cat-bounce types of second, i.e. low-to-mid-teens vs REM in mid-30s...

Of course a lot of them will end up that way.  I think PS+ will be lucky to get 20 seats out of this entire election.  I am just surprised that even 88 of them made it into second place given LR-UDI, and FN out there and FI,  EELV splitting their vote in many districts.