The latest Survey USA Maine Poll shows a significant gap in support for George W. Bush and John Kerry between Maine’s two congressional districts: Kerry +4 in ME1, Bush +5 in ME2, a nine point gap (caveat – the poll lists “Northern Maine and “Southern Maine” and it is unknown how well these line up with actual congressional district boundaries). The previous entry showed that in 2000, the difference between the results for Gore and Bush in the current districts is 4.4 percentage points.
The table below shows the trend data for the election results from 1980 through 2000 in the current districts:
| Year | ME-D | CD1-D | CD2-D | ME-R | CD1-R | CD2-R |
| 1980 | 42.3% | 41.9% | 42.6% | 45.6% | 45.0% | 46.2% |
| 1984 | 38.8% | 39.7% | 37.9% | 60.8% | 59.9% | 61.7% |
| 1988 | 43.9% | 42.9% | 44.9% | 55.3% | 56.3% | 54.3% |
| 1992 | 38.8% | 39.8% | 37.8% | 30.4% | 32.3% | 28.5% |
| 1996 | 51.6% | 51.7% | 51.5% | 30.8% | 32.2% | 29.3% |
| 2000 | 49.1% | 50.2% | 47.9% | 44.0% | 42.9% | 45.1% |
The next table shows the difference between each congressional district and the statewide total by year:
| Year | CD1-D | CD2-D | CD1-R | CD2-R |
| 1980 | -0.3% | 0.3% | -0.6% | 0.5% |
| 1984 | 0.9% | -0.9% | -0.9% | 0.9% |
| 1988 | -1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | -1.0% |
| 1992 | 1.0% | -1.0% | 1.9% | -1.9% |
| 1996 | 0.1% | -0.1% | 1.4% | -1.4% |
| 1996 | 1.1% | -1.1% | -1.0% | 1.1% |
The trend graphs for each district are shown below:
Maine Trend Graph: Congressional District 1 vs. Statewide
Maine Trend Graph: Congressional District 2 vs. Statewide
Although its difficult to conclude any solid trend in Maine from these graphs (the strength of Ross Perot in 1992 and 1996 and Nader in 2000 certainly masks some of the Republican/Democratic trends), there does appear to be a slight trend in voting behavior over the last decade – increasing the difference between Republican and Democratic voters between the two districts (CD2 becoming more Republican and CD1 more Democratic). While I don’t believe it to be nine percentage points as the SurveyUSA poll suggests, I think it bears watching and could result in a split Electoral Vote allocation if the statewide result is close.