Alabama Megathread 2: Thou Shall Not Touch Teenage Girls

[IceSpear]

Remember Nate Silver's rule "When the conventional wisdom tries to outguess the polls, it almost always guesses in the wrong direction." Everyone thinks that there's a bunch of 'shy Moore' voters, even though there's no evidence for this and there never were shy Trump voters. It's also very possible the polls are underrating Jones.

One more thing to consider is that most of the firms that have polled this race have been inconsistent, complete garbage, or both. Fox News has been the only reputable pollster in Alabama for the last month.

In any case, my final verdict on the race is this: I refuse to believe any of the polling, be it in Moore's direction or Jones', and will only buy into the final results. And even if my instinct that Jones will win is proven wrong, IceSpear will still be trash.

So your final verdict is burying your head in the sand, then digging the hole even deeper if you're proven wrong? How Trumpian.

[GlobeSoc]

Remember Nate Silver's rule "When the conventional wisdom tries to outguess the polls, it almost always guesses in the wrong direction." Everyone thinks that there's a bunch of 'shy Moore' voters, even though there's no evidence for this and there never were shy Trump voters. It's also very possible the polls are underrating Jones.

True, but I'm afraid of the polls being right and there being no polling error, which is why I'm cautiously going to say that the race is lean Moore.

That being said, it's possible that millennials are being systemically underpolled, which would have the effect of underselling Jones' position compared to reality. In addition, the re-enfranchisement of some felons might have a slight effect on the race, and it would be difficult to detect that vote.

On the flipside of the coin, it's possible that the angry white senior vote is being overpolled compared to what actually happens in the election. In JMC, for instance, middle aged people and the young supported Moore by a decent margin, whilst seniors supported Moore. This shows the result was potentially skewed because half of the sample was senior, which is probably not going to borne out by the results.

Also:

One more thing to consider is that most of the firms that have polled this race have been inconsistent, complete garbage, or both. Fox News has been the only reputable pollster in Alabama for the last month.

[SNJ1985]

I must have missed when white christians were subjected to slavery in America

They have, in fact, been subjected to slavery (by Muslims, specifically). It may not have happened in America, but it did happen.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barbary_slave_trade

[junior chįmp]

Just when you thought it couldn't get more insane:

Roy Moore co-authored legal course that argues women should not be permitted to run for office

[IceSpear]

Just when you thought it couldn't get more insane:

Roy Moore co-authored legal course that argues women should not be permitted to run for office

And yet despite this and being a sexual predator/pedophile, he still will get at least 40% of the women vote. Some people are just hopeless.

[Cactus Jack]

Just when you thought it couldn't get more insane:

Roy Moore co-authored legal course that argues women should not be permitted to run for office

It's like he's trying to lose the female vote two-to-one.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Just when you thought it couldn't get more insane:

Roy Moore co-authored legal course that argues women should not be permitted to run for office

It's like he's trying to lose the female vote two-to-one.

When Michelle Bachmann ran for president, I remember that some journalist who covered the Republican primary encountered many Republican women who said that they liked her and her politics, but wouldn't vote for her because "women aren't capable of being president".

[GeorgiaModerate]

AL.com has published an impassioned open letter to Moore from his first accuser, Leigh Corfman:

http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/11/roy_moore_leigh_corfman_accuse.html

[IceSpear]

Just when you thought it couldn't get more insane:

Roy Moore co-authored legal course that argues women should not be permitted to run for office

It's like he's trying to lose the female vote two-to-one.

When Michelle Bachmann ran for president, I remember that some journalist who covered the Republican primary encountered many Republican women who said that they liked her and her politics, but wouldn't vote for her because "women aren't capable of being president".

Ann Coulter and Phyllis Schlafly are/were also against women's suffrage.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Just when you thought it couldn't get more insane:

Roy Moore co-authored legal course that argues women should not be permitted to run for office

It's like he's trying to lose the female vote two-to-one.

When Michelle Bachmann ran for president, I remember that some journalist who covered the Republican primary encountered many Republican women who said that they liked her and her politics, but wouldn't vote for her because "women aren't capable of being president".

Ann Coulter and Phyllis Schlafly are/were also against women's suffrage.

I'm all for Coulter not voting.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Alabama SoS says interest in write-in voting has been "extraordinary".

[Cactus Jack]

Alabama SoS says interest in write-in voting has been "extraordinary".

Now that's interesting.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Before you can teach Alabama voters how to write-in a name, you have to teach them about how to write.

[Badger]

Independent Lee Busby is in.

Have seen it suggested he’ll take more votes from Jones, but that could be wishful thinking/pessimism.

I doubt he gets more than 1-2% of the vote. He should have no impact on the race.

Um, that's enough to swing a close race, and at least this should be close. Whether that's enough.

It'll hurt Moore. This guy is a staunch conservative Republican and touts himself as such. There are plenty more voters who can't bring themselves to to vote for a Democrat but would gladly take the opportunity to vote for a non-pedophile standard Alabama right wing Republican instead of Moore, than there are conservative Republicans so disgusted with Moore they'd vote for a Democrat like Jones, only to still switch to writing in a standard southern right winger if given the chance.

[Mr. Smith]

You guys still have two weeks of this, pace yourselves at least.

I still remember the sh**tstorm that happened here with the Gillespie polls. Good lord.

If anything Jones is the Gillespie here though.

More like the Jason Kander methinks.

And just for the record, I didn't think Gillespie would win, I simply figured it'd look more like Herring v. Obenshain in 2013 rather than the blowout it turned out to be.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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These people are deranged. 

[IceSpear]

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These people are deranged. 

I think he should be more worried about his multiple victims' family members than Al-Qaeda.

[DrScholl]

Why would al Qaeda care about Roy Moore?

[junior chįmp]

Why would al Qaeda care about Roy Moore?

They have alot in common

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

You know what y’all can do with your moral judgements of Moore voters. I just want to scream whatabouts.  I don’t have to lay them out.  Before you go into your neighbors house to insist he clean up his mess, clean up your own first.  You just cannot grasp that concept.

I expect the Senate will investigate whether Moore was lying to the voters of Alabama.  The yearbook will be the center of attention.  The question will then be whether Gloria tried to pull a fast one for publicity. If the yearbook notation is fradulant, Moore is safe.  If it is legit, he is toast.  If it is 1/2 & 1/2, it is anyone’s guess.

Thank Gloria for the current situation.

What does this even mean? This is a mess of a post, once again.

"Cleaning up our own mess" – what? If you're referring to Franken, nearly every D-avatar on this forum has called for his resignation, and a decent amount of Democrats did too. As for Conyers, I also believe he should resign.

Just because there are sexual harassers in the Democratic Party does not give the Republican Party or Alabama voters carte blanche to elect a pedophile.
 
When you yell "both sides" you don't actually make anything better. You end up justifying the status quo. Guess who loses? The women (and men) who are abused and exploited by these people in power. But who keep getting reelected.  

Stop trying to blame a lawyer for your own hackish beliefs. You should be ashamed of yourself.

I had lunch with a Presbyterian minister today. We live in the Arkansas delta.  So we cannot vote. However he expressed the view that Someone should be foregiven foractions that occurred 40 .years ago with no evidence of similar actions since that time.  I asked if the first 4 women were telling the truth, why his denial was not a lie, that would disqualify him?  He said Moore might have said it under pressure and there was no proof of lying.  He did say if notation in the yearbook was proven to be his, that would be disqualifying.

That is why Gloria’s notebook has become so important.  If you do not understand, I cannot educate you any further. Gloria made it validation issue.

Maybe you can judge someone else morality.  But do you think that wii change anyone’s mind.  Or, does it just give you a sense of superiority to a bunch of hicks.  Does it make you feel good.  Might it not be better to just tell them you think they wrong.  But I guess your jollies are more important.

Methinks you need to re-read Matthew 7:15

[Arkansas Yankee]

So, I Find out stamping out whataboutism is a leftist conspiracy.

http://www.knoxnews.com/story/opinion/columnists/george-korda/2017/11/29/dont-silenced-whataboutism-silencing-tactic/906484001/

What about
What about

I thought only Fox New had sexists.  Surprise!  Liberals going

As I have said clean up your own house first before you call names.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So, I Find out stamping out whataboutism is a leftist conspiracy.

http://www.knoxnews.com/story/opinion/columnists/george-korda/2017/11/29/dont-silenced-whataboutism-silencing-tactic/906484001/

What about
What about

I thought only Fox New had sexists.  Surprise!  Liberals going

As I have said clean up your own house first before you call names.

The dems have just forced the most senior democrat in the House into retirement over his sex scandals: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=278531.0

I say an eye for an eye seems fair. Dems took out one of their own, now it's time for you guys to keep Moore out of office.

[Arkansas Yankee]

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These people are deranged. 

Just like Clayburn who said Conyers’ accusers are like the white woman who killed her children and blamed a black man. Yep what about.

[DrScholl]

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These people are deranged. 

Just like Clayburn who said Conyers’ accusers are like the white woman who killed her children and blamed a black man. Yep what about.

Clyburn, not Clayburn. With that correction made, it doesn't matter what other people are saying about other situations. Moore has far more support than Conyers does at this point. "Such and such say/did" is not a valid argument. Two wrongs do not make a right.

[Kamala]

My defense for murder is "another guy murdered someone too!"

The prosecution tells me that's whataboutism, but the judge shuts him down, saying it's "just a lib tactic to silence the oppressed white Christian majority."

I'm found not guilty, a bald eagle flies into the courtroom, etc. etc.