User Predictions Improvements

I have rebuilt the Election 2004 user predictions scripts. The process is now entirely web-based and requires signficantly less effort than the first version. The software now calculates electoral votes automatically and – most importantly, the scripts generate the user maps.(no more headaches calculating electoral vote totals, trying not to fill the EV labels with the paint bucket, or frustrating yourself with the upload problems). I have also added a “most-recent” link in order to view the most recent predictions and will soon add a search feature as well as other ways to view the submissions. Please let me know if you run across any bugs or have further suggestions.

EC Calculator Refinements

I’ve completed some more refinements on the Electoral College Calculator (found in the 2004 section). Map polygons are significanlty refined. Also added image-mapping and mouse-over descriptions text box (clicking on a state brings up the results of the 2000 election in that state). Work has also begun on integrating this feature into the user prediction section and it will likely be available in the coming days. Please feel free to forward more comments and suggestions.

Deluxe Electoral College Calculator

The Electoral College Calculator has been well-received! Its even now featured on one of the support sites for Wesley Clark (http://www.us4clark.com/). Atlas visitors have also submitted several suggestions for improvements. Without losing the elegant simplicity of the current EV calculator, I’ve added a second, “deluxe” version that can be viewed via the link in the 2004 section. This version includes a dynamic bar graph showing the totals of each democratic, republican, and tossup electoral votes with the all-important 270 EV milestone. In addition, the page features the ability to generate a map from your state selections. Play around with it and let me know what you think. Note that the current state polygons of the generated map are only the first-draft. The rough-edges will be refined in due time. The same functionality will eventually be ported to the user prediction section to help alleviate the upload problems that have been plaguing PC users.

New Atlas Merchandise Store

I’ve received a number of requests since 2000 with regard to election map posters and other such election results paraphernalia. To this end (and to help to support the cost of the continuing increase in site traffic) I have recently signed up for a web store at cafepress.com. The Atlas store is located at http://www.cafeshops.com/uselectionatlas.

I’m in the early stages of developing this and will add more items. Please let me know if there are particular items that you have an interest in! And, by the way, one of the items to be added will be the long-awaited CD-ROM version of the Atlas!

Alabama and the 1960 Popular Vote

I have received several emails with regard to this article from the Wall Street Journal’s Opinion Journal. The article makes an argument that JFK lost the popular vote to Richard Nixon in the election of 1960. The basis of the argument is not about the alleged fraud in Illinois and Texas, but rather that it is not correct to assign all of the popular votes for Alabama’s Presidential Electors to Kennedy because six of the eleven electors were officially not pledged to Kennedy. The facts of the article are mostly correct – Alabama held a primary to determine which Democratic Presidential Electors would appear on the ballot. The result, was a ticket with split loyalties – six of the eleven Electors were “unpledged” and the remaining five were “loyalists” pledged to Kennedy (this was a different situation than in Louisiana and Mississippi – where the Unpledged Electors were on a separate ticket than the Democratic Electors).

One inaccuracy in the article is the statement that the Nixon “Slate” defeated the Democratic “Slate” 324,050 to 237,981. In fact, the citizens did not vote for the electors as a slate, but actually cast eleven ballots for not more than eleven electors (if someone wanted to vote for the six unpledged electors and five of the Republican ones, they could. If they wanted to vote for just one elector, they could). The result of this voting method produced varying totals; the difference between the highest and lowest electors is about seven thousand votes (see table below).

Alabama Election Results – 1960

Frank M. Dixon U 324,050 Cecil Durham R 237,981
Bruce Henderson U 323,018 C.H. Chapman, Jr. R 237,370
Edmund Blair U 322,593 W.H. Gillespie R 236,915
C.E. Hornsby, Jr. U 322,124 J.N. Dennis R 236,765
W.W. Malone, Jr. U 322,084 Robert S. Cartledge R 236,110
Frank Mizell U 320,957 W.J. Kennamer R 235,414
C.G. Allen D 318,303 Perry O. Hooper R 234,976
C.L. Beard D 318,266 Tom McNaron R 234,856
J.E. Brantley D 317,226 Mrs. John Simpson R 234,002
Dave Archer D 317,171 T.B. Thompson R 233,450
Karl Harrison D 316,934 George Witcher R 230,951

Summary:
Unpledged: Max: 324,050; Mean: 322,471; 6/11: 175,893
Democratic: Max: 318,303; Mean: 317,580; 5/11: 144,355
Republican: Max: 237,981; Mean: 235,345; 11/11: 235,345

So, the question is, how does one fairly allocate the popular vote in Alabama in 1960? Typically, most sources that I have seen give Kennedy 324,050, the highest total of the eleven electors. However, the elector whom received that total, Frank M. Dixon, was one of those not pledged to Kennedy. The highest vote total for a Kennedy elector was 318,303 (C.G. Allen). There are several ways that the results can be allocated with math (mean, median, 5/11 for Kennedy, 6/11 for Unpledged, etc.). These would all result in different totals and, from some perspective, be correct (its the “all-of-the-above” choice). The real total would be to determine the intent of the voters. When a citizen cast his/her ballot for each elector, was that citizen choosing Kennedy or Not Kennedy (some conservative democrat not yet named). Unfortunately, we can never know.

The point I would like to make about the national popular vote, is that it does not matter. The “game” isn’t played that way. As for an analogy, I haven’t seen anybody up in arms and complaining that the Yankees rightfully won the World Series in 2003 because they scored more runs (21 – 17). The Marlins won the most games… and are therefore the winners. The US Presidential Election is about winning electoral votes (which, today, translates to winning the popular vote within each state – with exception of Maine and Nebraska where a candidate’s electors are chosen by a plurality of the popular vote within each congressional district). The players understand this and execute their game plans accordingly. If the national popular vote was the actual metric by which they would win, then the campaigns would execute their plans very differently than they do today – leading to a different outcome.

Electoral College Calculator

I’ve created a simple Electoral College Calculator for all those interested in running Election 2004 scenarios. The calculator is a radio-button form where a visitor may choose whether the Electoral Votes of each state (and D.C.) will be assigned to the Democratic candidate, to the Republican candidate, or left unallocated as a tossup. A calculate button at the bottom tallies the results of the selections. It does not presently allow for split electoral votes. Note that the javascripting and dynamic HTML do not work on older browsers. If you experience problems with the function, I recommend upgrading to Netscape version 7.* (or other Gecko-based browsers such as Safari and Camino (MacOS X), Mozilla, Firebird, etc.) or Internet Explorer version 6 or greater.

Presidential Prediction Page

With the good help of many members of the Atlas Forum, the 2004 Presidential Prediction page is up and running. The idea here is to provide an interactive set of pages for users to post their electoral predictions, including maps and descriptive comments (necessary for the maps to hold up under the scrutiny of the fellow forum-members :). There are two map types for the 2004 election: the Prediction Map and the Confidence Map. The Prediction Map is intended for the user to call every state the way he/she sees it and tabulate the electoral votes, thereby choosing a winner (or a tie). The Confidence Map is intended to show the relative probability of the prediction on a state-by state basis (is a particular state strong-democratic? leaning democratic? or a tossup?) Here, states that are close can be gray, showing a low confidence in the assigned winner of the Prediction Map. Your prediction is intended to be dynamic (unless you are omniscient) and can be updated as more information is learned (such as the eventual Democratic nominee). I have provided template maps that may be downloaded from the page. So, please participate and enjoy. As always, please provide feedback. There are forum topics that cover both the discussion of the predictions and any technical issues with the pages.

Final Results from the California Recall

Arnold Schwarzenegger was sworn in today as the new Governor of California. The recall election results in the Gubernatorial Section of the web site have been updated per the certified results from the California Secretary of State (the official Statement of Vote 2003 Statewide Special Election October 7, 2003). The official statement has over 1.4 million more votes than were included in the preliminary results (about 16% of the overall vote total). Interestingly, the overall percentages did not change much at all. Schwarzenegger gained about 0.8 of a percentage point overall and his decade result changed in only one county, San Bernardino, from > 50% to > 60%. Bustamante dropped about one percentage point and his decade result changed in only one county, Santa Clara, falling from > 40% to > 30%. McClintock picked up about 0.3 of a percentage point. Results for other candidates are about the same.

LS Gubernatorial Results

The preliminary (100% precincts reporting) results of the Louisiana Gubernatorial run-off election have been posted in the Gubernatorial section of the website. The results differ relative to many recent polls; Blanco wins with a margin of slightly less than 4 percentage points: 52% to 48%. The results by Parish show signficant geographic support for Blanco, winning 53 Parishes to Jindal’s 12.

MS Gubernatorial Results

The preliminary (99% precincts reporting) data from the Mississippi Gubernatorial election is in. You can find the county map and data in the Gubernatorial section of the web site. The results show a modest win for Haley Barbour (R) over incumbent Ronnie Musgrove (D) by a margin of 7.3 percentage points (52.9% to 45.6%). The three minor party candidates received a combined total of 1.6%.