Create and compare predictions for the 2020 elections! Now added are the predictions for the 2020 Democratic Presidential Primaries and Caucuses, the 2020 General Election for U.S. Senate and for Governor. The full set of site predictions can be viewed in summary form on the Predictions Page.
Election predictions for the 2016 General Election are now open (U.S. President, U.S. Senate, and Governor). To help with picking winners, the polling database for the 2016 General Elections is also active. In 2012, the Atlas predictions for U.S. President had 81 users correctly call all 51 state-wide contests and all five congressional districts. The 2014 predictions were a bit tougher with nine users calling all states for U.S. Senate. Nobody called all 36 contests for Governor, given surprises in Maryland, Kansas, and Illinois. Good luck in this round!
The Pennsylvania 2012 presidential election results map by Municipality (City, Borough, Township) is now complete. Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan won a total of 2,031 municipalities while Barack Obama and Joe Biden won in 524 (11 were ties). This is a pickup for the Republican ticket vs. 2008, of 234 municipalities. Similar to many other states, the municipalities with the largest number of votes cast voted overwhelmingly Democratic, with Obama/Biden winning all of the top ten (Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Allentown, Upper Darby, Erie, Lower Merion, Abington, Haverford, Scranton, and Millcreek) with a net margin of 656,882 votes. The bulk of the margin votes are from the city of Philadelphia where Obama received 85.2% of the vote, resulting in a margin of 492,339 votes. Romney’s largest margin in any municipality is 6,714 votes in Hampfield Township in Westmoreland County. The total aggregated margin in all 2,031 municipalities won by Romney is 696,033, slightly more than the Obama margin in the ten municipalities listed above. Full details, including party and swing maps can be viewed on the Pennsylvania 2012 Town page. The forum topic is located here.
For members, there are now available county township maps on the individual county results pages. In addition, the same maps and data are now available for President in the general elections of 2000, 2004, and 2008.
The New Republic has published an article titled “The Mysterious Town That Voted For Ron Paul” based on the Election Atlas Maine statewide township map of the 2012 General Election results for President (it links to this weblog post). The Atlas has a weblog entry on this very topic published back on June 28, 2013. The New Republic article expresses some concern on the validity of the result based on the lack of lack of existing modern information about Concord Unorganized Township on the web and the absence of election results from Concord UT in recent elections. As for the latter concern, there is recent evidence of consistent results reported from Concord UT. In addition to the three votes cast for President in 2012 from (all write-ins for Ron Paul), there are also three votes cast for U.S. Senate, U.S. House of Representatives District 2, State Senate District 26, and State Representative District 88. Furthermore, while 2012 was the first modern year that Maine published Presidential Election results separately for Concord UT, the Maine 2010 General Election results as published by the Maine Bureau of Corporations, Elections & Commissions also include three votes for Governor from Concord UT (two for Republican Paul LePage and one for Independent Eliot Cutler) as well as three votes each for U.S. Representative, State Senator, and State Representative. Another mention of Concord UT separately is a voter registration report from November of 2006 that includes five registered voters (four Unenrolled and one Republican). Earlier reports of election results mention that Concord UT results are included with Solon Township (example: General Election Tabulations November 2, 2004).
A number of the gray-shaded towns in the Maine statewide township map have residents, but not governments that administer elections. Rather, larger surrounding townships administer elections in the unorganized townships and include these votes in their tallies. One example is that of Millinocket (dark green in map at right), where the town administers elections in Penobscot Unorganized Townships 3 and 4, Long A UT, Cedar Lake UT, T1 R9 WELS UT, and T1 R8 WELS UT (all in light green). Sometimes, the election results or voter registration figures for these outlying unorganized townships are tallied separately, sometimes they are added to the votes cast within the administering township, and sometimes they are reported as an aggregate separate from the administering township. Results vary from year to year.